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September 17-19 2012 rain and severe weather potential


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Does this mean you are even considering tomorrow. I likely will be out, see below for my plans (as of now).

I highly recommend grabbing a copy of Tim Vasquez's Storm Chasing handbook and Forecasting handbook. It is written for beginners to get you to a decent level of understanding.

Not in and around the DC/Metro. But better than a high risk (note my next comment)

High Risk....high bust. I prefer Mods, more likely to play out. Granted we did have April 2010 (Raliegh tornado day).

*April 16th, 2011.

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I know that this thread has morphed into a severe thread, but I'd like to at least point out how encouraging it is to see the models gradually keep opening up the rain shield over the northern part of Va. Doesn't mean it'll happen, but its amazing how often this seems to happen. I wish I understood what the models are seeing that causes them to forecast that hole. Is it the mts? They don't seem to be hurting the rain in swva

It seems to be most prevalent with the American models, especially any derivative of the NAM. I don't see it nearly as often with the foreign output.

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Does this mean you are even considering tomorrow. I likely will be out, see below for my plans (as of now).

I plan on chasing, but you know me... gotta get those TORs!!!!!!! Just said on Twitter... no idea where I'm gonna end up tomorrow, though northern MD looks like a decent spot for now. May end up hanging out just east of Frederick and then work NE with the storms as best I can.

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Imagine if tomorrow had an EML flying in just in time from the southwest

That'd be quite the scenario (read: damaging wind/tornado outbreak), but I'm sure most will take this in Sept.

Tomorrow should be a good day to test out Radarscope on my laptop, and needless to say the 21z SREF/00z model suite will be telling, as well as the RAP as it begins to get in range.

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RAP is beginning to get in range and the LL shear being progged by 15-17z is already off the charts, will be interesting to see what type of values will be churned out when/if the max instability that shows up on the NAM (around 21z) shows up on the RAP as well once it gets in range.

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That'd be quite the scenario (read: damaging wind/tornado outbreak), but I'm sure most will take this in Sept.

Tomorrow should be a good day to test out Radarscope on my laptop, and needless to say the 21z SREF/00z model suite will be telling, as well as the RAP as it begins to get in range.

Its exceptional.

This is an early mid spring like type of system.

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I still have somewhat mixed feelings about this event for some reason. I think I'm hoping that the tornado potential overperforms as I think the squall has potential to underperform. Wonder if we'll have two distinct batches--a potential group of rotating somethings 'early' (mid-afternoonish) then a bit of a lull before the frontal band.

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