mappy Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 A New Englander mentioned high risk might come out lol Ct Blizz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Ct Blizz? Nah not him - I think he's been poopooing this event hasn't he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The sad thing is, with the new job, instead of enjoying a good setup, all I can think is, "This is going to totally ruin my Saturday." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Seeing you optimistic for events is always a good thing. I'd like to think you're one of the more balanced people around here. I'm pretty confident somebody pretty close in to DC will get a good gust or two when the line comes through. I don't think this is an event where we wait all day and one cell pops and it's a dud. The question is just how intense will that line be. There are a number of positives but it's not a slam dunk. I'm not necessarily sold they'll mod risk us though I would still think we have a better shot of getting significant severe compared to SW New Hampshire. The parameters can be misleading if they're not utilized. I think too many people look at supercell numbers or something and get more out of it than they should... But I might be playing the hometown game on something that I have a good opp to see since it's a weekend. I might have to stay up to the new D1. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 There are a number of positives but it's not a slam dunk. I'm not necessarily sold they'll mod risk us though I would still think we have a better shot of getting significant severe compared to SW New Hampshire. The parameters can be misleading if they're not utilized. I think too many people look at supercell numbers or something and get more out of it than they should... But I might be playing the hometown game on something that I have a good opp to see since it's a weekend. I might have to stay up to the new D1. :-/ I was planning to - but I generally bring bad luck to it and I'm already pretty tired. Last night was a shocker when I saw it. Had no idea it would blow up like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Out of the area, but ill post here anyway. 00z NAM looks ominous up around Allentown with open and moderately elongated hodos. Almost plains worthy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 21z run of the LWX ARW model - looking good - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Nah not him - I think he's been poopooing this event hasn't he? I think that was before the mod. Now he is bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Anyone know what time the D1 comes out usually? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Anyone know what time the D1 comes out usually? Around 2am... so in about 40 mins or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The band of storms sure looks to be moving eastward faster than the earlier forecasts indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The band of storms sure looks to be moving eastward faster than the earlier forecasts indicated. Not really. Low pressure center is forming over Ohio and will pull north, which in turn will slow down the progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 2% tor 5% hail 30% hatched wind -- 45% hatched for Northern and NE MD including BWI BWI NE is in MOD RISK... rest of LWX in SLGT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 0600z OTLK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NY...CENTRAL/SRN VT...SWRN NH...CENTRAL/WRN MA...MUCH OF CT...NJ...NRN DE...NERN MD...AND ERN PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING MDT RISK AREA...FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY SWWD TO SC AND PORTIONS ERN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER-AIR PATTERN OVER CONUS WILL FEATURE WRN MEAN RIDGING AND ERN TROUGHING. LATTER WILL BE REINFORCED BY STG SHORTWAVE NOW ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS LS...IA...AND CENTRAL PLAINS. PRIMARY 500-MB VORTICITY CONCENTRATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PERTURBATION IS OVER WI ATTM. ENHANCED VORTICITY FIELD IS FCST TO PIVOT CYCLONICALLY ACROSS LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA AND OH THROUGH 08/18Z...THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND EJECT NEWD TO NRN QUE BY 9/12Z. MEANWHILE...TRAILING/NARROW RIBBON OF MAXIMIZED MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL MOVE GENERALLY SEWD OVER SRN PLAINS...TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION...AND CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THESE PROCESSES WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN MB -- DIGS SEWD AND AMPLIFIES...REACHING LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD. SEASONALLY STG SFC COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM LE SWWD ACROSS OH...NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH SQUALL LINE FROM OH TO ARKLATEX REGION...AND OTHERWISE SURGING SWD ACROSS NERN/W-CENTRAL TX AND TRANS-PECOS REGION. VIGOROUS SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG FRONT BY EARLY IN PERIOD OVER SERN ONT. RESULTING LOW THEN SHOULD DEEPEN AND EJECT NEWD OVER NRN QUE...SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF LEADING 500-MB VORTICITY LOBE. BY 9/00Z...TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH ERN NY...DE RIVER VALLEY...WRN NC...NRN GA...AND SERN LA. FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF ERN MAINE AROUND END OF PERIOD...WHILE SRN PORTION MOVES SEWD ACROSS ERN CAROLINAS AND SRN GA. ...NY/NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO SRN PIEDMONT REGION... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. MAIN BAND OF SVR CONVECTION WILL OFFER DENSE CONCENTRATION OF SVR/DAMAGING GUSTS...SOME OF WHICH MAY REACH 65 KT...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES...IN AND NEAR MDT RISK AREA. TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF SEVERAL STORM-SCALE CIRCULATION REGIMES. HAIL RISK APPEARS TERTIARY IN IMPORTANCE. COMBINATION OF INFLUENCES FROM AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS...TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT...AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT OVER WARM SECTOR DURING PERIOD OF DIURNAL HEATING. MEANWHILE...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WAA THROUGHOUT PREFRONTAL MID-ATLC...WHERE MAIN BELT OF DEEP ASCENT WILL ENCOUNTER RESERVOIR OF MID-60S TO LOW-70S F SFC DEW POINTS. STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING IS EXPECTED FROM SERN CONUS NEWD AT LEAST INTO DELMARVA/TIDEWATER REGION. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSOLATION FARTHER N...THOUGH SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO WEAKEN CAP FAVORABLY OVER NYC AREA...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. WIND-DAMAGE AND SPORADIC TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH PRIMARY SQUALL LINE OVER MID-ATLC REGION...ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH SWD INTO CAROLINAS...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS STILL PRIMARY THREAT. SVR SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED AROUND BOW/LEWP FEATURES...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AND RELATED MESOCIRCULATIONS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTO WHICH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING OVER MID-ATLC REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AREA OF 200-350 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH PRIOR TO FROPA...FROM NERN PA/NJ NWD UP HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THAT AREA WILL LIE ON NRN FRINGE OF STRONGEST BUOYANCY...WITH ENOUGH HEATING AND RICH LOW-LEVEL THETAE TO YIELD 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER WRN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND. BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE SSWWD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY AND BEYOND WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER. OVERALL SVR THREAT WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND SHORTER IN DURATION FROM GA SWWD TO CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. IN MID-ATLC REGION...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING NUMBER AND LONGEVITY OF RELATIVELY DISCRETE TSTMS AHEAD OF MAIN LINE...WHICH WOULD POSE MORE ORGANIZED SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO RISK. FCST BREADTH OF WARM SECTOR...LIKELIHOOD OF RELATIVELY WEAK MLCINH BY EARLY AFTN...AND ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE HODOGRAPHS...SUGGEST SOME TSTMS MAY HAVE TIME TO MATURE INTO DISTINCT SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE...RELATIVE MAX IN TORNADO PROBABILITIES IS DRAWN FROM ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA AND NJ. OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK...THOUGH STG DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY WILL SHIFT EWD OVER MOST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SUCH...SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES ARE CARRIED EWD TO COAST...EXCEPT FOR MRGL RISK OVER ERN MAINE LATE IN PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Simulated radar is impressive on NAM 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Radar....eh...mountains gonna tear this up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Usually when we hype storms nothing happens so I expect sprinkles today at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Cloud deck look thin Getting a little sun here and there in MoCo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Pretty much same on graphics on 1300z OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Pretty much same on graphics on 1300z OTLK Yeah - small shifts here and there but nothing significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Def thin cloud deck. In Columbia now and I'm seeing blue skies mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Yeah - small shifts here and there but nothing significant. SPC mentions N VA and north for QLCS stuff... and then says later in disco tht overall synoptic pattern suggess postential for serial-type derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 SPC mentions N VA and north for QLCS stuff... and then says later in disco tht overall synoptic pattern suggess postential for serial-type derecho My guess is we'd be on the southern fringe of any serial derecho. No doubt that we get a good squall line - but the question is - will the "serial derecho" portion come this far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 without red shading from spc overhead it's just not going to be the same when i get blasted later ... they can redeem at 1630z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Def thin cloud deck. In Columbia now and I'm seeing blue skies mixing in. Yep, in columbia too.. same story. Shouldn't be too long until we see some useful sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 All sun here in Loudoun, Of course Ill be in hell, Baltimore later on this morning and into the afternoon so it will miss there and be the storm of the century here. Sun 75 with a 73 DP currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Not a single cloud in the sky here this morning. Hopefully, the full sun enhances the convection potential in time for that line of precip coming out of WV. If that line doesn't get here soon, though, we're going to have another sauna-bath today. Nearly 80F already at 9:30 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Dews in the 70s and blue skies. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Dews in the 70s and blue skies. Awesome Figures that the one event where we don't need as much instability/sun to realize the potential we get it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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