thunderman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Wouldn't be too surprised to see Northern VA tossed into the moderate risk with 45 hatched wind. Dynamics and wind profile are both there with 700mb winds approaching 40kts over a large part of the area by 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 GFS wind profile. Very respectable! Edit: sfc and h5 shown here. Sorry, should have said that originally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 A somewhat good hodo for KDCA at 5 pm tomorrow per 18z NAM -- http://68.226.77.253..._META__KDCA.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 A somewhat good hodo for KDCA at 5 pm tomorrow per 18z NAM -- http://68.226.77.253..._META__KDCA.png What's the link to find soundings like that at other stations other than DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 What's the link to find soundings like that at other stations other than DCA? http://www.wxcaster.com/model_skewt.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 A somewhat good hodo for KDCA at 5 pm tomorrow per 18z NAM -- http://68.226.77.253..._META__KDCA.png That hodo would definitely have some nado potential. There is enough shear there to get some ground-parallel vorticity going and enough turn in the SR wind field to advect a tilted vortex tube into the updraft. That hodo would also be somewhat favorable for splitters. Also remember that in supercells it is the shear/meso and the resulting mesoscale pressure perturbation accelerations that helps them live. Massive amounts of instability are NOT required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 http://www.wxcaster....model_skewt.htm Great, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 0z will be telling. /preparing us for the return of Randy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Will be interesting to see later run of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 There's enough forcing with the front that it's hard to see how we don't get widespread storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 There's enough forcing with the front that it's hard to see how we don't get widespread storms. These kind of powerful fronts are usually like that I feel like. That late Nov/early Dec system in 2006 comes to my mind. Might not be similar at all but I know we had a decent tor risk that day and some good lines went through. That was when I got weenie tagged lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Will be interesting to see later run of this. Split looks to be forming around Stephens city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I'm still rooting for at least something notable to come through this far south. Soundings actually look halfway decent at RNK so I'm thinking a rather potent line of storms down this way as well. A lot of the time they jump the Appalachians and redevelop over the Piedmont (I.E. Lynchburg/Danville area) which in turn leaves me with not much in the way of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 A New Englander mentioned high risk might come out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Split looks to be forming around Stephens city D'oh!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 A New Englander mentioned high risk might come out lol While not likely, it is possible. If and only if a derecho or something forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 A New Englander mentioned high risk might come out lol In other news, the sky is blue and water is wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 While not likely, it is possible. If and only if a derecho or something forms. Meh - but moderate is impressive as is. I think they'll leave it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Meh - but moderate is impressive as is. I think they'll leave it. Oh they won't upgrade unless something major is underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 00z NAM has us in the low 90s with low 70s DPs tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 00z NAM has us in the low 90s with low 70s DPs tomorrow afternoon. Steroids for storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 In other news, the sky is blue and water is wet I love those guys but they are more optimistic than anyone when it comes to storms. Maybe because there have been so many anomalous events up there the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 00z NAM has us in the low 90s with low 70s DPs tomorrow afternoon. I'm on phone so haven't looked but one worry is mixing out.. So good to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Oh they won't upgrade unless something major is underway. We didn't get a high risk when we should have for the derecho so I'd be appalled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 We didn't get a high risk when we should have for the derecho so I'd be appalled. They were too busy eating donuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 They were too busy eating donuts. This effin guy... He's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 This effin guy... He's right Want an ice cream sandwich? No thanks. Are you sure? Ya I am sure. Are you sure? Ok i'll take two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Want an ice cream sandwich? No thanks. Are you sure? Ya I am sure. Are you sure? Ok i'll take two. Admin pleaae...or kenny... To do nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 I'm on phone so haven't looked but one worry is mixing out.. So good to see that. Seeing you optimistic for events is always a good thing. I'd like to think you're one of the more balanced people around here. I'm pretty confident somebody pretty close in to DC will get a good gust or two when the line comes through. I don't think this is an event where we wait all day and one cell pops and it's a dud. The question is just how intense will that line be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Admin pleaae...or kenny... To do nothing. Once the line passes the blue ridge it will be game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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