mattmfm Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 "A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED FORWFO BTV/ALY/BGM AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS EXPECTED FOR CTP/LWX/PHI." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Most local hi-res models bring the QLCS/squall line in between 4-7pm 1630 OTLK should be interesting to see if tehy increase the wind probs down here a little bit... would not be surprised to see the 5% TOR come into N VA as well since LWX mentions isolated TORs in the AFD and HWO If only we could get this much sun for all of our severe events lol. Honestly, with the amount of sun we've had I wouldn't be surprised to see the mod extended to include DC at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Seems like our really good severe days are one where the winds are blowing steady and gusting well before the line moves in. I'm impressed just how windy it is already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Still 2% TOR...30% shaded wind for extreme N VA and to the NE including DCA and BWI... mod risk shifted slightly to NE but still includes NE MD and BWI -- 1630 OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 636 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-041-043-510-090200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0636.120908T1615Z-120909T0200Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE`S ST. MARYS TALBOT WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 STW issued till 10 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 MDC043-VAC043-069-840-WVC003-037-081645- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0317.000000T0000Z-120908T1645Z/ WASHINGTON MD-CITY OF WINCHESTER VA-FREDERICK VA-CLARKE VA- JEFFERSON WV-BERKELEY WV- 1216 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM EDT FOR THE CITY OF WINCHESTER...AND BERKELEY...JEFFERSON...CLARKE... FREDERICK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES... AT 1212 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF MARTINSBURG TO 6 MILES NORTH OF WINCHESTER...AND WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MARTINSBURG... BLOOMERY... CHARLES TOWN... SHENANDOAH JUNCTION... SHEPHERDSTOWN... FAIRPLAY... SHARPSBURG... ANTIETAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Looks like Ian doesn't get his moderate. But a good chunk of us are still in the hatching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Blu Box ... probs coming momentarily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Long watch... nearly 10 hrs... DISCUSSION...FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE AREA OF GREATER SURFACE HEATING/INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN PA/MD/VA. INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WITH AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKEWISE CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (70%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Blu Box ... probs coming momentarily >95/70 wind probs... tor prob is 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Looks like Ian doesn't get his moderate. But a good chunk of us are still in the hatching. I'm going to make 400 reports so they feel bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Dont worry Disc! http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1209081620.acus11.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I'm going to make 400 reports so they feel bad Kinda surprised a lil bit if winds are to 70... but they expect a 70% chance of a report of winds over 65 kts... also dont usually see watches of nearly 10 hrs in longevity unless its a tropical system watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Kinda surprised a lil bit if winds are to 70... but they expect a 70% chance of a report of winds over 65 kts... also dont usually see watches of nearly 10 hrs in longevity unless its a tropical system watch It's kinda academic.. Borderline mod. Whateva. We be rockin which is all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 If you want to believe 1600z SPC meso Kenny and Ian SBCAPE is nearing 2000, effective bulk shear 40kts, 0-6km shear 40 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Rocking here now. Earlier than I was hoping for. Thunder, lightning and torrential rain. No wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 CTP in their SWS says that some of the storms in the line are rotating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Heavy rain here just a brief bit of wind/thunder, nothing but rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Slight rotation SE of MRB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Decided to come down to In The Street in downtown Frederick. Just got the watch alert and checked radar. Looking like we need to stay close to shelter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Multiple rounds? Seems like this line forming out ahead of the front wants to be a contender. Then the main frontal line back in WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 0.75" of rain in 15 minutes. Peak wind gust 21 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Multiple rounds? Seems like this line forming out ahead of the front wants to be a contender. Then the main frontal line back in WV. that's what the 12z nam was showing yesterday - i don't think it's good news for the dc metro - my experience is that if we get a pre-frontl squall line, it takes the wind out of the main event, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Randy BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1247 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... * UNTIL 115 PM EDT * AT 1243 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS OVER HAGERSTOWN...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HAGERSTOWN... FUNKSTOWN... CHEWSVILLE... CAVETOWN... LEITERSBURG... SMITHSBURG... RINGGOLD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 that tornado warning is a bit sketchy but i guess it's worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 that tornado warning is a bit sketchy but i guess it's worth it Looks like it had a decent couplet for a few mins... guess they pulled the trigger to be safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 that's what the 12z nam was showing yesterday - i don't think it's good news for the dc metro - my experience is that if we get a pre-frontl squall line, it takes the wind out of the main event, so to speak. That tends to be more when we need the instability tho. Remember that this system is very dynamic so even if we have a modified airmass - the forcing along the front will likely still be able to produce something - even if it's not super severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 that's what the 12z nam was showing yesterday - i don't think it's good news for the dc metro - my experience is that if we get a pre-frontl squall line, it takes the wind out of the main event, so to speak. I think you just found the likely excuse that will be used when this all massively underwhelms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 that's what the 12z nam was showing yesterday - i don't think it's good news for the dc metro - my experience is that if we get a pre-frontl squall line, it takes the wind out of the main event, so to speak. i disagree. for one many of our good events are pre-frontal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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