Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I like CT Blizz but holy damn thank god he's not in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Fess up, who broke the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Updated 10am Zones have damaging winds in them and listed twice in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Full sun here in Columbia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Nice looking hodo at KBWI and KMTN at 21z per 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Nice looking hodo at KBWI at 21z per 12z NAM And 2736 CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 And 2736 CAPE The models almost always underdo CAPE in the days prior.. tho that might be excessive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 The models almost always underdo CAPE in the days prior.. tho that might be excessive. It is quite sunny so perhaps we get there. I'd guess more like 1500-2000 tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The models almost always underdo CAPE in the days prior.. tho that might be excessive. I dunno... I know it could be wrong... but 1400 SPC Meso page says SBCAPE is already up to 1500 J/KG along I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 I dunno... I know it could be wrong... but 1400 SPC Meso page says SBCAPE is already up to 1500 J/KG along I-95 I have a sneaky suspicious that mesoanalysis is always a bit high too My AllisonHouse feed in GR always shows much lower values. Usually like sliced 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 12z KIAD sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 12z KIAD sounding Needle CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 12z KIAD sounding I think an 18z one is coming too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1017 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHWRS HAS BEEN SLOW TO ENTER WRN CWA THIS MRNG...AND ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING...THUS POPS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC CDFNT LAGGING BEHIND INITIAL PCPN...AND AT 14Z IS LOCATED ACRS WRN WV. CNVTCV BAND DVLPG ALONG THIS FEATURE...WHICH SHUD RACE AHEAD OF ANY PRE-FRONTAL PCPN BY THIS AFTN ACRS SHEN VLY. FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATM...SO TSTMS SHUD INTENSIFY AS THEY PUSH EWD THRU CWA. BULK SHEAR IS VERY HIGH AND FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. HODOGRAPH/ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ARE ORIENTED SUCH THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO PSBL...THO DMGG WINDS ARE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT. AMPLE SUN THIS MRNG ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO 80S BEFORE TSTMS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Visible really looks impressive for daytime heating potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 We be rocking later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 We be rocking later Bring on the nators!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Bring on the nators!!! New mascot?! The DC Nators? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 What is that product that DT is using for saying SPC is considering watches for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 What is that product that DT is using for saying SPC is considering watches for us? MSPaint...i believe he's just making his own watches now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 What is that product that DT is using for saying SPC is considering watches for us? Fantasyland.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Fantasyland.com I figured as much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 From updated HWO .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHTTHUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 70 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 77 ACUS11 KWNS 081538 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081538 NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-081715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1928 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634... VALID 081538Z - 081715Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN WW 634 ALONG A THIN FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY IN SWRN NY. ALONG WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LINE IN WRN PA AND WV...THIS QLCS SHOULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT REACHES THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NRN VA TO CNTRL NY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED. A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED FOR WFO BTV/ALY/BGM AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS EXPECTED FOR CTP/LWX/PHI. DISCUSSION...A NARROW BUT LONG BAND OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY WITHOUT CG DETECTED LIGHTNING EXTENDED FROM SWRN NY TO ERN KY AS OF 1530Z...ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. AN 80-100 MILE GAP REMAINS BETWEEN THIS AND THE LEADING EDGE OF MORE ROBUST SURFACE HEATING WHERE 15Z TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED. LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST WITH NRN EXTENT...WHILE STRONGER HEATING WITH SRN EXTENT SHOULD PROMOTE RELATIVELY GREATER BUOYANCY. THIS SETUP APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE FOR THE ADVERTISED POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS. A FEW EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 No tornado watch lol - My guess tho would be that it will be a strongly worded STW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I hope it's not just that skinny cool season crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Wow, this is from Brooklyn... scary stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 I hope it's not just that skinny cool season crap I guess when SPC confers with the local WFO's it's possible they could tip the scales toward a TOR but I'd say it's less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 With the number of pictures coming in looks like it was a pretty solid tornado in Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Most local hi-res models bring the QLCS/squall line in between 4-7pm 1630 OTLK should be interesting to see if tehy increase the wind probs down here a little bit... would not be surprised to see the 5% TOR come into N VA as well since LWX mentions isolated TORs in the AFD and HWO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.