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Saturday, Sept 8, 2012 Severe Event


Kmlwx

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Seeing you optimistic for events is always a good thing. I'd like to think you're one of the more balanced people around here. I'm pretty confident somebody pretty close in to DC will get a good gust or two when the line comes through. I don't think this is an event where we wait all day and one cell pops and it's a dud. The question is just how intense will that line be.

There are a number of positives but it's not a slam dunk. I'm not necessarily sold they'll mod risk us though I would still think we have a better shot of getting significant severe compared to SW New Hampshire. The parameters can be misleading if they're not utilized. I think too many people look at supercell numbers or something and get more out of it than they should... But I might be playing the hometown game on something that I have a good opp to see since it's a weekend. I might have to stay up to the new D1. :-/

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There are a number of positives but it's not a slam dunk. I'm not necessarily sold they'll mod risk us though I would still think we have a better shot of getting significant severe compared to SW New Hampshire. The parameters can be misleading if they're not utilized. I think too many people look at supercell numbers or something and get more out of it than they should... But I might be playing the hometown game on something that I have a good opp to see since it's a weekend. I might have to stay up to the new D1. :-/

I was planning to - but I generally bring bad luck to it and I'm already pretty tired. Last night was a shocker when I saw it. Had no idea it would blow up like that.

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0600z OTLK

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1227 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN

NY...CENTRAL/SRN VT...SWRN NH...CENTRAL/WRN MA...MUCH OF

CT...NJ...NRN DE...NERN MD...AND ERN PA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING MDT RISK

AREA...FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY SWWD TO SC AND PORTIONS ERN GA...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER-AIR PATTERN OVER CONUS WILL FEATURE WRN MEAN RIDGING AND ERN

TROUGHING. LATTER WILL BE REINFORCED BY STG SHORTWAVE NOW ADVANCING

SEWD ACROSS LS...IA...AND CENTRAL PLAINS. PRIMARY 500-MB VORTICITY

CONCENTRATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PERTURBATION IS OVER WI ATTM.

ENHANCED VORTICITY FIELD IS FCST TO PIVOT CYCLONICALLY ACROSS LOWER

MI...NRN INDIANA AND OH THROUGH 08/18Z...THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND

EJECT NEWD TO NRN QUE BY 9/12Z. MEANWHILE...TRAILING/NARROW RIBBON

OF MAXIMIZED MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL MOVE GENERALLY SEWD OVER

SRN PLAINS...TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION...AND CENTRAL/SRN

APPALACHIANS...ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THESE PROCESSES WILL OCCUR

AS UPSTREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER

NRN MB -- DIGS SEWD AND AMPLIFIES...REACHING LOWER GREAT LAKES AND

OH VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD.

SEASONALLY STG SFC COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM LE SWWD ACROSS

OH...NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH SQUALL LINE FROM OH TO ARKLATEX

REGION...AND OTHERWISE SURGING SWD ACROSS NERN/W-CENTRAL TX AND

TRANS-PECOS REGION. VIGOROUS SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG

FRONT BY EARLY IN PERIOD OVER SERN ONT. RESULTING LOW THEN SHOULD

DEEPEN AND EJECT NEWD OVER NRN QUE...SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF LEADING

500-MB VORTICITY LOBE. BY 9/00Z...TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH

ERN NY...DE RIVER VALLEY...WRN NC...NRN GA...AND SERN LA. FRONT

SHOULD MOVE OUT OF ERN MAINE AROUND END OF PERIOD...WHILE SRN

PORTION MOVES SEWD ACROSS ERN CAROLINAS AND SRN GA.

...NY/NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO SRN PIEDMONT REGION...

SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS THIS

REGION ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. MAIN BAND OF SVR CONVECTION WILL

OFFER DENSE CONCENTRATION OF SVR/DAMAGING GUSTS...SOME OF WHICH MAY

REACH 65 KT...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES...IN AND NEAR MDT RISK

AREA. TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF SEVERAL STORM-SCALE

CIRCULATION REGIMES. HAIL RISK APPEARS TERTIARY IN IMPORTANCE.

COMBINATION OF INFLUENCES FROM AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER SHORTWAVES

WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS...TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS

ALOFT...AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT OVER WARM SECTOR DURING

PERIOD OF DIURNAL HEATING. MEANWHILE...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE

TRANSPORT AND WAA THROUGHOUT PREFRONTAL MID-ATLC...WHERE MAIN BELT

OF DEEP ASCENT WILL ENCOUNTER RESERVOIR OF MID-60S TO LOW-70S F SFC

DEW POINTS. STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING IS EXPECTED FROM SERN CONUS

NEWD AT LEAST INTO DELMARVA/TIDEWATER REGION. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT

INSOLATION FARTHER N...THOUGH SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO

WEAKEN CAP FAVORABLY OVER NYC AREA...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN NEW

ENGLAND.

WIND-DAMAGE AND SPORADIC TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH PRIMARY

SQUALL LINE OVER MID-ATLC REGION...ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH SWD INTO CAROLINAS...WITH DAMAGING

GUSTS STILL PRIMARY THREAT. SVR SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED AROUND

BOW/LEWP FEATURES...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AND RELATED

MESOCIRCULATIONS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTO WHICH THIS

CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING OVER MID-ATLC REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW

AREA OF 200-350 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH PRIOR TO FROPA...FROM NERN PA/NJ NWD

UP HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THAT AREA WILL LIE ON

NRN FRINGE OF STRONGEST BUOYANCY...WITH ENOUGH HEATING AND RICH

LOW-LEVEL THETAE TO YIELD 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER WRN NY/WRN NEW

ENGLAND. BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE SSWWD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY AND

BEYOND WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER. OVERALL SVR THREAT

WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND SHORTER IN DURATION FROM GA SWWD TO

CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

IN MID-ATLC REGION...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING

NUMBER AND LONGEVITY OF RELATIVELY DISCRETE TSTMS AHEAD OF MAIN

LINE...WHICH WOULD POSE MORE ORGANIZED SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO RISK.

FCST BREADTH OF WARM SECTOR...LIKELIHOOD OF RELATIVELY WEAK MLCINH

BY EARLY AFTN...AND ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE

HODOGRAPHS...SUGGEST SOME TSTMS MAY HAVE TIME TO MATURE INTO

DISTINCT SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE...RELATIVE MAX IN TORNADO

PROBABILITIES IS DRAWN FROM ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SRN NEW

ENGLAND...ERN PA AND NJ.

OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK...THOUGH STG

DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY WILL SHIFT EWD OVER MOST

OF NEW ENGLAND DURING LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SUCH...SLGT

RISK PROBABILITIES ARE CARRIED EWD TO COAST...EXCEPT FOR MRGL RISK

OVER ERN MAINE LATE IN PERIOD.

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SPC mentions N VA and north for QLCS stuff... and then says later in disco tht overall synoptic pattern suggess postential for serial-type derecho :o

My guess is we'd be on the southern fringe of any serial derecho. No doubt that we get a good squall line - but the question is - will the "serial derecho" portion come this far south?

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