nycsnow Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Check out the long range on the GFS Post the JMA in tropical thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Can someone post the euro images for hours 48-60? Cant get the wundermap to work on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I feel like we should be taking about cooler weather and the upcoming wiinter; the.heat talk is so old now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I feel like we should be taking about cooler weather and the upcoming wiinter; the.heat talk is so old now. That's what the models are showing signs of, however. It looks as if we have a hot period from around 8/28-9/2 before more fall-like weather sets in. I wonder if the record-breaking lack of arctic sea ice will help lead to warmer conditions in the fall. 2007 held the previous record for the minimum in extent of arctic ice, and that was one of the most torrid autumns in recent memory, particularly October. The sea ice connection is probably mostly coincidence, however, as that year also had a developing high-end moderate La Niña, which tends to make the fall milder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 That's what the models are showing signs of, however. It looks as if we have a hot period from around 8/28-9/2 before more fall-like weather sets in. I wonder if the record-breaking lack of arctic sea ice will help lead to warmer conditions in the fall. 2007 held the previous record for the minimum in extent of arctic ice, and that was one of the most torrid autumns in recent memory, particularly October. The sea ice connection is probably mostly coincidence, however, as that year also had a developing high-end moderate La Niña, which tends to make the fall milder. I kept this to the banter thread because it is more frustration. Hope the models back off the one period, but you are right that models are analyzed regardless here. No problem with that, but just want the cool talk to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 I feel like we should be taking about cooler weather and the upcoming wiinter; the.heat talk is so old now. there is plenty of time for that. Hope people finally label this summer for what it was...HOT, no one remembers the first two weeks in June but they remember alot of hot days and in August they will remember the humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Eh, it was hot at times, but not overly so. Certainly not memorable. I wouldn't even rank it in my top 10 (nothing like 93, 95, 99, 05, 10 or the 108 degrees last summer) there is plenty of time for that. Hope people finally label this summer for what it was...HOT, no one remembers the first two weeks in June but they remember alot of hot days and in August they will remember the humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 The cool talk can wait, that weather dominates the year. We have another month of summer left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Eh, it was hot at times, but not overly so. Certainly not memorable. I wouldn't even rank it in my top 10 (nothing like 93, 95, 99, 05, 10 or the 108 degrees last summer) Agreed. August had the chance to push it over the edge into "hot summer" criteria, but the past few weeks have been very average. Just as one cold/snowy month in winter doesn't make a stellar winter, one hot month does not a hot summer make. I'd call it very warm and humid but certainly not brutal. June and most of August were enjoyable. Temp departures for JJA will be above average but not well above like places in the Mid-west, Plains, and even Mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Agreed. August had the chance to push it over the edge into "hot summer" criteria, but the past few weeks have been very average. Just as one cold/snowy month in winter doesn't make a stellar winter, one hot month does not a hot summer make. I'd call it very warm and humid but certainly not brutal. June and most of August were enjoyable. Temp departures for JJA will be above average but not well above like places in the Mid-west, Plains, and even Mid-atlantic. This. Gross airmasses galore in August. This week is sensational, for the 30 minutes i was able to get outside the office total during sunlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 there is plenty of time for that. Hope people finally label this summer for what it was...HOT, no one remembers the first two weeks in June but they remember alot of hot days and in August they will remember the humidity. I don't see this as a hot summer in the same light I view 2010 and even 2011. June was slightly below normal (especially the first days, which were downright chilly), July was a scorcher, and August has been typically muggy but not impressive in terms of daytime highs. Most of the above normal departure in August is due to the warm, humid nights, and that doesn't play as big of a role in my perception of summertime weather anomalies. Central Park's highest reading was 100F this summer, which is notable but not as extreme as the 104F reading last year or the 103F day in 2010 which was followed by another 100F maximum. Numbers for 90+ are also down from the last couple summers, not a surprise though. Overall, I found the middle of summer unpleasantly warm and used the A/C a bit more than normal, but it was far from historic or "torrid." Upper 90s in late August could definitely change my opinion a bit, if they stick around for a few days and aren't followed by a sharp front, which some of the models have cooling us below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 I didnt say brutal summer, I said hot. Its been hot. Of course not like 2010...and to me 2011 was not that hot because after the big heat of July, the summer basically petered out in cloudy rainy days. I work outside so I am a pretty good judge of what years are hot compared to others. This year was pretty relentless for a long stretch of time. I had 11 straight days of 90 and then after that broke, the heat came back and then the humidity kicked in. August has not been as hot but Im probably still running a +2 and then above normal to close out the month may add to that. July was over a +3 and June was about normal. Might be a case of location here, those near the coast and those further inland in NJ two different worlds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 there is plenty of time for that. Hope people finally label this summer for what it was...HOT, no one remembers the first two weeks in June but they remember alot of hot days and in August they will remember the humidity. Of course I disagree; I feel getting close to September is looking towards fall and winter. July was hot. The other summer months, mostly bearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 NYC is about a +1 for meteorological summer (June 1 - September 1st). LGA is about a + 1.95 EWR is about a + 1.65 JFK is about a +1.55 Temps have been uniform to averages across the whole NYC area. Meteorological summer will end up +1 to +2 across the whole area. It's not been "MUCH HOTTER" in NJ, relative to averages. Overall a +1 to +2 summer is not a very hot or even a hot summer. Definetely a very warm and humid summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 arguing over personal definitions of "hot", lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 arguing over personal definitions of "hot", lol I'm just pointing out with STATISTICS that NJ has not been "much hotter" then the coast, relative to averages, as a poster stated. I personally think this was a nice summer with a fair balance of heat, warmth and cooler weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Is there a way to measure average humidity/Dewpoints for the summer vs. this summer?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Agreed. August had the chance to push it over the edge into "hot summer" criteria, but the past few weeks have been very average. Just as one cold/snowy month in winter doesn't make a stellar winter, one hot month does not a hot summer make. I'd call it very warm and humid but certainly not brutal. June and most of August were enjoyable. Temp departures for JJA will be above average but not well above like places in the Mid-west, Plains, and even Mid-atlantic. to me hitting 100 in the Summer is like getting a 12 inch snowfall in the winter...The winter would have been short and sweet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 One thing is for sure-the weekends as a whole were decent even going back to spring-alot of unsettled Monday's was the pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 One thing is for sure-the weekends as a whole were decent even going back to spring-alot of unsettled Monday's was the pattern.... Def...alot of rain outs monday this year...whats the forecast for weekend? Rain now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Def...alot of rain outs monday this year...whats the forecast for weekend? Rain now? upton has party cloudy-maybe an isolated shower sunday...look ok to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Yesterday was one of the best beach days ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 The DGEX has been crazy at times with heat waves this summer... this time it's gone too far. There's probably a better chance of the CRAS nailing a winter storm 48-60 hours out than widespread 105+ degree heat for DC-NYC on September 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Central Park has hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit twice in September, but you have to go back many decades to find those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 The DGEX has been crazy at times with heat waves this summer... this time it's gone too far. There's probably a better chance of the CRAS nailing a winter storm 48-60 hours out than widespread 105+ degree heat for DC-NYC on September 1st. Obviously, I wouldn't go that hot, but considering: 1) Westerly wind surface and aloft. 2) Very high 850 mb temperatures. 3) Warm SST's nearby. 4) Drought in the central plains. we can go very high next weekend. Ironically, the only thing that may prevent this is if 'Isaac' somehow threw enough moisture nearby to create enough clouds around here by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Central Park has hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit twice in September, but you have to go back many decades to find those. What the DGEX is showing would literally be record breaking. 105+ degrees for September would break the all time hottest September temp for DC and Philly, getting close to a record for NYC. Obviously, I wouldn't go that hot, but considering: 1) Westerly wind surface and aloft. 2) Very high 850 mb temperatures. 3) Warm SST's nearby. 4) Drought in the central plains. we can go very high next weekend. Ironically, the only thing that may prevent this is if 'Isaac' somehow threw enough moisture nearby to create enough clouds around here by then. Agreed. The set up based on the latest models looks likely to support at least a surge of heat; if it is to verify as currently modeled with the warm air mass, west winds and ridging, I can see how widespread 90s, perhaps in the mid-upper range for some, would end up verifying. There's still some room for change given the time range though, with Isaac a possible factor that may limit this heat potential. The DGEX however has a history of exaggerating heat waves which is clearly what it's doing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I found this interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 What are the chances that this afternoon from around 4-7pm we will be completely washed out with pouring rain? I have softball playoffs on the East Side of Manhattan today and I really don't feel like playing today lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 What if? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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