HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Jeez, looks like the stuff in E. NY is gonna' slide south of here... again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 After a brief shower now partly Sunny and appears the first batch misses NE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 I wonder if this morning stuff actually helps us out for later on. Sure, it's contingent on how fast the cloud debris clears and all that. Vis doesn't look too terrible behind this stuff. Sun out for a lot of SNE by 10-11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Distant thunder here. Lately my PC-based lightning detector has been registering lots of "noise" but few "strikes". Has the nature of Fairfield County thunderstorms changed, or is there something related to my detector or antenna that needs attention? (Rhetorical question only - I'm pretty sure that it's the equipment that has a fault, but if anybody cares to make the argument that the laws of physics have changed recently, I'll give it serious consideration. It is 2012, after all...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Thunder closing in, looks like a brief shower once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Finally some rain. Overnight and again in the last half hour. Also a couple of impressive ctg's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Thursday-Friday is a muddled mess. The GFS insists on generating vorticity in the high plains (convection) that races eastward to produce the SLP for Thursday evening while the ECMWF / UKMET are more reserved. It will make a big difference. Suddenly, timing has become an issue as well as evolution. Things could certainly still end up being very rough; but if the synoptics are unclear, it isn't possible to be anything but vague about the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Looks like most action this morning is for central/sw CT, and line behind the current one seems to be following a similar track. Does this shift east as the day goes on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Moderate to Heavy rain, dead calm, with some rumbles of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Thursday-Friday is a muddled mess. The GFS insists on generating vorticity in the high plains (convection) that races eastward to produce the SLP for Thursday evening while the ECMWF / UKMET are more reserved. It will make a big difference. Suddenly, timing has become an issue as well as evolution. Things could certainly still end up being very rough; but if the synoptics are unclear, it isn't possible to be anything but vague about the end of the week. the idea of a consolidated sfc low in upstate ny crapped out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Nice call by Ryan on the early lines of showers/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 the idea of a consolidated sfc low in upstate ny crapped out I agree that the probability went down but the idea is not totally gone yet. The SPC approach of "waiting and seeing" what happens with convection prior to and during cyclogenesis and intensification is, as always, the best route. The wind fields are still impressive, even if the SLP craps out. There would still be an enhanced tornado risk on the northern edge of the theta-e ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 I agree that the probability went down but the idea is not totally gone yet. The SPC approach of "waiting and seeing" what happens with convection prior to and during cyclogenesis and intensification is, as always, the best route. The wind fields are still impressive, even if the SLP craps out. There would still be an enhanced tornado risk on the northern edge of the theta-e ridge. i like how thursday looks with the boundary just north of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Thunder closing in, looks like a brief shower once again. It's pouring with intense lightning. Not a brief shower by any stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 i like how thursday looks with the boundary just north of us Definitely potential for something good. Threat will remain a bit vague for a while I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 yeah Thursday/Friday is a bit disjointed. Originally the main show was going to be the 500mb closed low over the plains moving east...but now there is a shortwave that races out ahead of it. Northern PA would clean up on the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 yeah Thursday/Friday is a bit disjointed. Originally the main show was going to be the 500mb closed low over the plains moving east...but now there is a shortwave that races out ahead of it. Northern PA would clean up on the GFS solution. Wind fields still good plus this time of year having water temps so warm it doesn't screw things up for SNE with strong low level warm advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 I like Tuesday for up here with some interaction with the front pushing thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Wind fields still good plus this time of year having water temps so warm it doesn't screw things up for SNE with strong low level warm advection. SNE mostly looks north of the warm/stationary front on Thursday. Still, plenty of times to hammer out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Euro has over 3" of rain here on Thursday north of the warm front. Probably overdone but given the strength of the system...places north of the warm front could get quite a bit of rain I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Euro has over 3" of rain here on Thursday north of the warm front. Probably overdone but given the strength of the system...places north of the warm front could get quite a bit of rain I think. the low on the gfs looks like convectively generated crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 the low on the gfs looks like convectively generated crap Yep... ...LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WED-THU... PREFERENCE: NAM OR ECMWF THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK AND THUS IS STRONGER AND LIES NORTH OF THE NAM/ECMWF WHICH ARE MOSTLY SIMILAR. THUS...RECOMMEND DISCOUNTING THE GFS IN FAVOR OF EITHER THE NAM OR ECMWF. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 for the Friday system is this a NY/VT special or can ME be in the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 .27 in the bucket mostly cloudy 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 .27 in the bucket mostly cloudy 73 0.0 in the bucket. Mostly sunny 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Where is the discussion for this afternoons and tonight's threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Suns coming back out and it feels pretty juicy...let's rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eire015 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Looks like the KCXX radar will still be down today for the dual pol upgrade. It will be interesting to see how BTV handles the potentially severe convection later today. Is there a good site to view Canadian radar data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Where is the discussion for this afternoons and tonight's threat? Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Meh No storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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