CT Rain Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Let's focus on the damage before the damage? ; Monday pm/night. Yeah lol... the Euro jumped out at me for Friday though when I was just taking a cursory glance of all the runs. I do agree with Chris and Wiz that there's potential Tuesday over eastern areas. I sort of like BOS/EWB? I think we'll dry out too much here but we do have some impressive lapse rates modeled (look at the NAM!) with good jet dynamics and strengthening wind fields. Monday is marginally interesting as well. Though deep layer shear is meh there is a weak LLJ that noses into western areas that gives us some decent 0-3km shear. May help storm organization even though supercells are unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 Yeah lol... the Euro jumped out at me for Friday though when I was just taking a cursory glance of all the runs. I do agree with Chris and Wiz that there's potential Tuesday over eastern areas. I sort of like BOS/EWB? I think we'll dry out too much here but we do have some impressive lapse rates modeled (look at the NAM!) with good jet dynamics and strengthening wind fields. Monday is marginally interesting as well. Though deep layer shear is meh there is a weak LLJ that noses into western areas that gives us some decent 0-3km shear. May help storm organization even though supercells are unlikely. I think the focus tomorrow would be training cells which develop along any boundaries or from orograhpic lift. While there could be some strong winds with any cores collapsing I would think main threat would be torrential downpours/flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Yeah lol... the Euro jumped out at me for Friday though when I was just taking a cursory glance of all the runs. I do agree with Chris and Wiz that there's potential Tuesday over eastern areas. I sort of like BOS/EWB? I think we'll dry out too much here but we do have some impressive lapse rates modeled (look at the NAM!) with good jet dynamics and strengthening wind fields. Monday is marginally interesting as well. Though deep layer shear is meh there is a weak LLJ that noses into western areas that gives us some decent 0-3km shear. May help storm organization even though supercells are unlikely. I noticed that for Monday as well. I believe it was the NAM that also had a subtle 40 kt streak at H3 that break off and brushes NW MA, NH and then ME. Perhaps this will be enough for storm organization, but overall shear is still rather meh as you said. We might be able to maintain something out of Canada up this way in the northern mountains. On Tuesday, I would say the NAM verbatim is favoring a line from IJD to OWD, then squashing that down to EWB to PYM late. There is a nice little bullseye of delta 30 H6 to sfc theta-e difference, which is well above accepted values for severe wind. Obviously the soundings look good for hail, and there is jet support. But that unidirectional flow is really cutting into shear values. The NAM is more bullish than most on the shear, and even then it is only 30-35 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Haven't delved into the models yet but it looks as though my area may be primed for some severe. Thanks quincy and ryan for your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 I noticed that for Monday as well. I believe it was the NAM that also had a subtle 40 kt streak at H3 that break off and brushes NW MA, NH and then ME. Perhaps this will be enough for storm organization, but overall shear is still rather meh as you said. We might be able to maintain something out of Canada up this way in the northern mountains. On Tuesday, I would say the NAM verbatim is favoring a line from IJD to OWD, then squashing that down to EWB to PYM late. There is a nice little bullseye of delta 30 H6 to sfc theta-e difference, which is well above accepted values for severe wind. Obviously the soundings look good for hail, and there is jet support. But that unidirectional flow is really cutting into shear values. The NAM is more bullish than most on the shear, and even then it is only 30-35 kts. The NAM has very steep lapse rates Tuesday and is a bit slower with drying out the boundary layer. So yeah... good for eastern sections. On Monday there are several subtle signs that indicate a limited severe potential somewhere. Getting enough of a LLJ and enough hodograph curvature could provide enough low level shear to organize storms even in the midst of rather meh deep layer shear. Here's the 12z NAM 36 hour forecast hodograph for BDL. The GFS is much less impressive. Something to watch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 Maybe we can generate a few supercells here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 The NAM has very steep lapse rates Tuesday and is a bit slower with drying out the boundary layer. So yeah... good for eastern sections. On Monday there are several subtle signs that indicate a limited severe potential somewhere. Getting enough of a LLJ and enough hodograph curvature could provide enough low level shear to organize storms even in the midst of rather meh deep layer shear. Here's the 12z NAM 36 hour forecast hodograph for BDL. The GFS is much less impressive. Something to watch at least. I do like the look of hodographs tomorrow. For what it's worth, the SPC WRF develops a line from the Canadian border all the way to Philly tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 I do like the look of hodographs tomorrow. For what it's worth, the SPC WRF develops a line from the Canadian border all the way to Philly tomorrow afternoon. Our 4km WRF which actually has done pretty well with convection this summer has several lines of storms moving through here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Maybe we can generate a few supercells here tomorrow. I did an approximation based off of the NAM forecast for Monday afternoon and the Supercell Composite value is about 2.9 for northern CT. Not particularly impressive, although this is more of an observation based on number crunching and not a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 Would like to see stronger shear for more of a supercell threat or a classic supercell look to storms but I could foresee some cells taking on supercell characteristics and this could make a local threat for some pretty large hail. Tomorrow is certainly intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Our 4km WRF which actually has done pretty well with convection this summer has several lines of storms moving through here tomorrow. What kind of time frame tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Severe weather threat later this week is interesting. 18z GFS makes you go hmmmm... especially with water temps off the south coast in the mid/upper 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 What kind of time frame tomorrow? We could see storms overnight and toward sunrise actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Hey guys, how is it look for EMA, have not seen much chatter on this area, sorry for the IMBY post, not as good as ready severe threat parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 Hey guys, how is it look for EMA, have not seen much chatter on this area, sorry for the IMBY post, not as good as ready severe threat parameters. Not sure how much action there will be out that way tomorrow but right now for Tuesday I think everything favors EMA for a decent severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Severe weather threat later this week is interesting. 18z GFS makes you go hmmmm... especially with water temps off the south coast in the mid/upper 70s. I was thinking the same thing..this is not a bad look at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 Perhaps just the result of a feedback issue but the 18z GFS seems really disorganized with winds in the lowest 700mb on Friday. Also looks like the best wind fields move offhsore by early afternoon as the sfc low departs off the coast of ME. Maybe it's just nitpicking at this stage but just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Not sure how much action there will be out that way tomorrow but right now for Tuesday I think everything favors EMA for a decent severe threat. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Thanks! Actually taking a closer look I could see some development tomorrow across eastern MA which is sea-breeze induced...could see a few strong to severe pulsers across this area with damaging winds the main threat...flash flooding would also be a concern as well. Further west tomorrow evening could actually be quite interesting here...just looked at the 12z WRF and it has a solid line of convection moving through here around 0z tomorrow night and by this time we have increased 0-6km shear to 30-35 knots and increased 0-1 helicity thanks to developing LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Actually taking a closer look I could see some development tomorrow across eastern MA which is sea-breeze induced...could see a few strong to severe pulsers across this area with damaging winds the main threat...flash flooding would also be a concern as well. Further west tomorrow evening could actually be quite interesting here...just looked at the 12z WRF and it has a solid line of convection moving through here around 0z tomorrow night and by this time we have increased 0-6km shear to 30-35 knots and increased 0-1 helicity thanks to developing LLJ. 18z NAM is pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 18z NAM is pretty meh. For tomorrow? I didn't really look much at the 18z NAM...just looked at 12z runs/15z SPC SREF and the 12z WRF. We'll see what happens tomorrow but if we can get something to unfold like the WRF was showing it could be a fun evening for some across western CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 I think tomorrow will really depend on how pronounced that lee trough is. A more pronounced lee trough will actually also help to get a stronger LLJ going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 FWIW I believe this is what analogs have for tomorrow...from 12z NAM Here is the link to the analog dates: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/WARM/stats.php?reg=GL&model=NAM212&fhr=F036&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 lol I'm not the one who generated it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Some of the convection this morning actually hasn't looked that bad given how there is not much instability or great winds aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 We could see storms overnight and toward sunrise actually. I know you didn't mean out here, but we have had some nice storms since midnight. One around 1am and another batch from 4:30-6:00. Nothing severe but heavy rain and lots of thunder and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Looks like a very wild day and night for just about all of us. Everyone be safe and enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 storms coming in alot earlier it looks like on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Many rounds of storms today. This morning..another later this afternoon after midday sun and more overnight. Some will be damaging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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