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Beryl now TD; Landfall 70 mph Jax Bch 12:10 AM 5/28.; TS warnings lifted for S SC to NE FL


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Although there's still a complete lack of convection near the center of the circulation, convection slightly farther from the center has filled in nearly all the way around the system for the first time, which makes sense given the reduction in shear.

do you think it will increase in intensity(even slightly) before landfall?

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 22:39Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)

Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2012

Storm Name: Beryl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 09

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 22:14:40Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°14'N 76°44'W (31.2333N 76.7333W)

B. Center Fix Location: 212 miles (341 km) to the SE (144°) from Myrtle Beach, SC, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 37° at 52kts (From the NE at ~ 59.8mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 367m (1,204ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 365m (1,198ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:55:30Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 22:36:30Z

Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

SPIRAL BANDING

post-32-0-89691100-1338072626_thumb.jpg

post-32-0-64866100-1338072637_thumb.jpg

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Nice circulation in a low TPW environment with a lack of conveection. We saw several of these last year.

However Nichole 2010 and Lee 2011 were STS's that had a lot more convection and precip than this, hence were at least trackable.

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do you think it will increase in intensity(even slightly) before landfall?

I think it will come down to what happens with tonight's diurnal maximum, and whether or not any sustained deep convection fires closer to the center of circulation. If that happens, intensity could increase by maybe 10 kts before landfall, but I'd give it about a 1 in 3 chance of occurring at this point. Otherwise, just expect ~5 kt fluctuations.

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The skies here in Savannah have a cool prestorm look with low clouds moving pretty fast to the SW. Winds have been increasing and have been gusty. No rain yet. I'm expecting intermittent showers through the day here on the north side of the storm.

Beryl looks like it may be picking up some strength based on satellite loops. Convection has increased near the symmetric circ. center as it travels over 82+ SST's with low shear.

Good vis satellite loop:

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&isingle=multiple&itype=vis

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Does anyone know what the record is for most number of named storms in the Atlantic before the official start of the season? Wikipedia says this is the first time since 1908 that we've had two named storms before June 1... but is two the record?

Yep, shared with 1887

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any readings from the recon?

URNT12 KNHC 271344

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012

A. 27/13:27:10Z

B. 30 deg 08 min N

079 deg 18 min W

C. 850 mb 1410 m

D. 50 kt

E. 054 deg 40 nm

F. 120 deg 65 kt

G. 054 deg 47 nm

H. 999 mb

I. 15 C / 1418 m

J. 17 C / 1524 m

K. 13 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1234 / 8

O. 0.02 / 5 nm

P. AF308 0202A BERYL OB 07

MAX FL WIND 65 KT NE QUAD 13:12:30Z

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

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The skies here in Savannah have a cool prestorm look with low clouds moving pretty fast to the SW. Winds have been increasing and have been gusty. No rain yet. I'm expecting intermittent showers through the day here on the north side of the storm.

Beryl looks like it may be picking up some strength based on satellite loops. Convection has increased near the symmetric circ. center as it travels over 82+ SST's with low shear.

Good vis satellite loop:

http://aviationweath...tiple&itype=vis

Where are you getting that high of SST from?

latest_weekstorm.gif

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