U_Thant Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I personally wouldn't be suprised if recon foud a hurricane, and I do believe that as a proactive thing the NHC could hoist a hurricane warning from Jacksonville to Daytona Beach If that was (is) the case, your warning would be too far south, and not far enough north, given the structure of the system. Current surface obs show the strongest sustained winds are 20-30kt along the northeast coast (Heck, KDAB is currently 27008kt and the center is only about 100NM NE of them) and 35-40KT over water. Winds are surely stronger in the convective band on the N-E quadrants, given the satellite signature and doppler velocity. The 75KT doppler BVEL at 8KFT probably represents the strongest wind GUSTS anyhere in the storm. My take is we're probably looking at a storm about to peak just below 'cane strength....60kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 live streaming: Audio down temporarily cause hes on a phone call. http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-severe-weather-webcam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 It hasn't really moved much in the past 2 hours... My Recon guess is 996 mb and hurricane force FL winds with one or two 66-70 mph SFMR HDOB's in the NE Quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 as of 5pm est...still 65kt. pressure dropped 1mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 as of 5pm est...still 65kt. pressure dropped 1mb. *mph ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 live streaming: Audio down temporarily cause hes on a phone call. http://www.ustream.t...-weather-webcam Guy is calling it a strengthening cat 1 and is saying he is worried he will be trapped in the city what a clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Guy is calling it a strengthening cat 1 and is saying he is worried he will be trapped in the city what a clown. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Peak of 73kt at 850mb in the NW quad, 993.5mb extrap SFMR was 58-62kt for a few observations, however these observations were with >40mm/hr convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Decent squall just came through with heavy rains strong gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Peak of 73kt at 850mb in the NW quad, 993.5mb extrap SFMR was 58-62kt for a few observations, however these observations were with >40mm/hr convection. Looks like we are probably goig up to 60 kts at 8pm intermediate advisory. Will be interesting to see if highs winds exist in NE Quad like in the last few passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Guy is calling it a strengthening cat 1 and is saying he is worried he will be trapped in the city what a clown. What a moron. "We're approaching a heavy squall, I hope I don't get hit by a tree!" 30 seconds later with no visible wind blowing through the trees: "Squall is decreasing". Stupid, but I can't stop laughing. He's the Kige Ramsey of storm chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Peak of 73kt at 850mb in the NW quad, 993.5mb extrap SFMR was 58-62kt for a few observations, however these observations were with >40mm/hr convection. If you look at the scaler that I posted earlier on this page, that makes perfect sense 73 kts at 1500m bringing it down using the eyewall line (convective) it comes out to 60.4 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Wow-- this has turned out to be a semi-cool system. I hope is makes it to 65 kt before landfall. P.S. I've been at my 20th college reunion and kind of out of the tropical loop the last few days-- in case y'all have missed me and were wonderin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 It looks like the center from Recon is roughly 30.1N/80.3W, which is in the southwest portion of the "eye" like feature edit: 993mb on drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 It will be very interesting to hear/see the reports as the partial eyewall structure moves onshore. Wind gusts of 38 mph are already being observed across the Jackonville metro area even though the eyewall is a ways away. Starting to look like all of Jacksonville may face the brunt of this since the eyewall is wrapping around to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Looks like it's making a go at 65 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Radar does show this storm has a nicer structure than Irene. Most of the energy is concentrated in the eyewall which wants to close off. So I'd call this a premature landfall FTL. However this could be a warning sign that the SE coast will be a hotspot this season and FL has an above average chance of getting hit this year despite NHCs quite year prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 21Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Amazing the difference in temps because of the storm. Upper 90s in Dothan while in mid 80s in N FL and SE GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Noice 98mph winds at 5750 feet on KJAX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Number 9...good indicator of a strengthening cyclone...if that stronger piece of convection can wrap around all the way, this thing can make it to 65-70kts...also, we can see friction induced tightening during landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 000 URNT12 KNHC 272151 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012 A. 27/21:16:00Z B. 30 deg 03 min N 080 deg 18 min W C. 850 mb 1358 m D. 62 kt E. 295 deg 24 nm F. 016 deg 73 kt G. 294 deg 27 nm H. 993 mb I. 12 C / 1526 m J. 19 C / 1527 m K. 13 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 08 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF308 0302A BERYL OB 06 MAX FL WIND 73 KT NW QUAD 21:07:30Z ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 85 kt winds at 1800 m being detected by Jacksonville radar in the eyewall. Starting to think this could be declared a hurricane by the evening. The tree damage from the constant winds and rain is gonna be the big story here. All the trees there are way older and bigger than they should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 85 kt winds at 1800 m being detected by Jacksonville radar in the eyewall. Starting to think this could be declared a hurricane by the evening. The tree damage from the constant winds and rain is gonna be the big story here. All the trees there are way older and bigger than they should be. Yep...TS wind radii is rather big...and there are a lot of big trees around the Jax area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I'll shoot and cook a dang crow if this makes landfall as a hurricane. I never thought that it'd be this close. Such an odd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 If the land interaction can help to tighten the system up it will be a gorgeous system in a few hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 If the land interaction can help to tighten the system up it will be a gorgeous system in a few hrs. Only has a couple hours left until landfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Stronger wind reports starting to roll in. I wonder what the pier is measuring now since it was gusting to 55 mph hours ago. http://www.nws.noaa....d=LSR&node=KJAX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 608 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0454 PM TROPICAL STORM 42 ENE ST. AUGUSTINE BE 30.00N 80.60W 05/27/2012 AMZ472 XX BUOY A TROPICAL STORM FORCE PEAK WIND GUST OF 67 MPH WAS RECORDED AT BUOY 41012. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS WERE MEASURED AT 51 MPH. THE ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE WAS AT 994 MB. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 529 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0304 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ST. SIMONS 31.18N 81.38W 05/27/2012 M43 MPH GLYNN GA ASOS PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 414 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0313 PM TROPICAL STORM NW PALM COAST 29.58N 81.22W 05/27/2012 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES ON FOREST HILL DRIVE IN PALM COAST. FLORIDA POWER AND LIGHT AND FIRE DEPARTMENT ON THE SCENE. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 336 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0315 PM TROPICAL STORM JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W 05/27/2012 DUVAL FL MESONET JAX BEACH PIER REPORTED WINDS AT 35 MPH GUSTING TO 55 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I'm interested to see whats out in the NE Quad where there's no radar coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 85 kt winds at 1800 m being detected by Jacksonville radar in the eyewall. Starting to think this could be declared a hurricane by the evening. The tree damage from the constant winds and rain is gonna be the big story here. All the trees there are way older and bigger than they should be. Fay produced a decent amount of tree damage when I was there for her in 08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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