DopplerWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Can't wait to see how she looks this time tomorrow, seems to really be getting its act together. With storms firing over the LLC and SST's being relatively warm I think we may see some nice strengthening tonight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Trusting Bastardi is a big no-no. Especially in the tropics. This. The cyclone is rapidly transitioning from an XTC where, up until now, the convection was being driven by jet forced ascent, to where central convection is STARTING to be driven by latent heat feedback. However the center and asscoiated convection is still being vented by the divergent LF quad of an 80kt jetstreak shooting NE-ward over the western Atlantic. It's getting there, but JB is mistaken, calling it a full blown TS already. And of course, once again he uses twitter as a bully pulpit to whinge and unfairly bash NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 This. The cyclone is rapidly transitioning from an XTC where, up until now, the convection was being driven by jet forced ascent, to where central convection is STARTING to be driven by latent heat feedback. However the center and asscoiated convection is still being vented by the divergent LF quad of an 80kt jetstreak shooting NE-ward over the western Atlantic. It's getting there, but JB is mistaken, calling it a full blown TS already. ahh i see. thanks for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Well I'll be. Down to 1001mbs with 45 mph winds AL, 94, 2012052600, , BEST, 0, 323N, 749W, 40, 1001, LO, 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 This. The cyclone is rapidly transitioning from an XTC where, up until now, the convection was being driven by jet forced ascent, to where central convection is STARTING to be driven by latent heat feedback. However the center and asscoiated convection is still being vented by the divergent LF quad of an 80kt jetstreak shooting NE-ward over the western Atlantic. Bingo... its the jet forced ascent via upper level divergence that has been aiding the storms intensification the last 6-12 hours. However, we are now starting to see the upper level PV anomaly merge with the surface circulation. This should result in a substancial drop in vertical wind shear, and we should start to see surface cyclone development be driven by wind surface heat exchange (WISHE) rather than merely jet dynamics. This will take place when the PV anomaly aloft moves overhead and its at this time that 94L will have the opportunity to transition into a tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 AMSU cross section from earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Well, looks like 11pm might be it coupled with this: SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 845 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SATELLITE PICTURES AND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Lets try this again. It was removed after they updated the FIX site... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al942012_al022012.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201205260151 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Just Reneumered, I would expect advisories at 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 First advisory on Beryl at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Tropical Storm Warnings for North Florida to SC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 000 WTNT32 KNHC 260242 TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 74.8W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Hey guys. What do ya'll think the ceiling is as far as strengthening on Beryl before it makes landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Hey guys. What do ya'll think the ceiling is as far as strengthening on Beryl before it makes landfall? 60 mph max probably... its going to take a lot of air mass modification of the dry air surrounding the system currently and Beryl has a limited time over water before its expected landfall in the southeast. I wouldn't expect a system much more intense than Alberto at its peak, although this system will be substantially larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Hey guys. What do ya'll think the ceiling is as far as strengthening on Beryl before it makes landfall? You guys could use the rain, It's not that jucy a storm but I think you it will produce more than Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 26, 2012 Author Share Posted May 26, 2012 It looks like it may already be moving WSW from radar and IR satellite loops. I assume there will be a 2 AM NHC intermediate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 You guys could use the rain, It's not that jucy a storm but I think you it will produce more than Don. Yep.. Hopefully Beryl puts a nice small dent in this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Yep.. Hopefully Beryl can put a nice small dent in this.. Wow, I didn't realize how much of a Drought was already in place for a lot of areas in the Southeast. This could be a huge drought buster. I've updated my blog with some ideas for the forecast track and intensity. Track should be a lot easier than intensity, since a subtropical ridge will be dominating the next 48 hours in keeping Beryl on a westward course, although towards the end of the forecast it should turn back to the northeast as it gets picked up by an upper level trough. Intensity is a big ? though. Alberto was only able to get to 50 knots, and I'm thinking that might be where Beryl ends up too, although the environment isn't quite as dry, so that might work its favor. Should be fun to watch. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2012/05/26/subtropical-storm-beryl-is-born-bud-quickly-falling-along-the-mexican-coastline/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Most unimpressive looking on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Most unimpressive looking on satellite. No doubt, it looks like crap. Hopefully, this is the only land-falling TC of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 No doubt, it looks like crap. Hopefully, this is the only land-falling TC of the season. Been a dry six weeks, another non-tropical origin 2008 Edouard here would be quite welcome here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Wasting my time on another naked swirl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Obviously, it's not a tropical system; a great improvement over what it has been doing. I expect that it will make up for lost ground with such a nice structure. Shear is not relatively high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Is the environment looking more or less favorable this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Is the environment looking more or less favorable this morning? It's mentioned in the discussion: THE SUBTROPICAL STORM IS ENTANGLED WITH A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING AND BERYL EVOLVING INTO A FULLY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED AS BERYL WILL BE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS BY THEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Thanks Hugo. Hopefully it can get a little pop hitting the gulf stream before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 As the NHC alludes to in its 11am discussion, the key thing will be how well the convection responds in the next 24 hours while the system lies over the Gulf Stream. Dry air has been completely entrained into the circulation and that situation won't improve unless Beryl develops a central dense overcase that can help increase precipitable water in-situ of the storm center. The system is currently moving into the warmest sea surface temperatures associated with the Gulf Stream, with some values even exceeding 28 degrees Celsius. The next 24 hours will be key before the storm gets too close to the Shelf waters that are readily evident along the Southeast Coastline north of Jacksonville, FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 26, 2012 Author Share Posted May 26, 2012 Not much westward component of motion last five hours and little motion at all last few hours. Note the lack of surface high pressure to its north, which means not much westward steering at the lower levels right now. I'm wondering if the models are assuming too much west motion for today. I've seen this kind of thing in the past when surface high pressure to the north is pretty weak. Perhaps this will mean an overall slower movement toward the U.S. vs. the NHC track. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Starting to see some convection pop up near the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 26, 2012 Author Share Posted May 26, 2012 Starting to see some convection pop up near the center. I think we may now be seeing a transition to more tropical. SST's are warm enough, shear is only 5-10 knts, and the LLC looks good, which should all aid in strenghtening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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