Jaguars Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Ok folks place your bets. Is she officially a cane or not at the 8pm update? I say yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Pulling the trigger at this point wouldnt really do anything in terms of public awareness considering it's going to make landfall very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Tree fell on house in Darien, GA. http://www.facebook.com/wtoc11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Fingers crossed! C'mon, Beryl! We're all pullin' for ya!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Could this save its butt? Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:46:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 NHC won't pull the trigger unless the RECON comes back with 80 mph SFMR in the NE Quad on exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Pulling the trigger at this point wouldnt really do anything in terms of public awareness considering it's going to make landfall very soon. If it seems to be sustaining hurricane winds, they ought to and they will. They did with Humberto 2007, which they upgraded essentially as it was crossing the coast. My point is that there is absolutely a precedent for last-minute upgrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 NHC won't pull the trigger unless the RECON comes back with 80 mph SFMR in the NE Quad on exit. I don't even think that the NE quad has the strongest winds in this case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Fingers crossed! C'mon, Beryl! We're all pullin' for ya!! LOL while it would be a cool tidbit for there to be a May landfalling cane in NE Florida I think she is a little late and with the western eyewall already landfalling it will be interesting to see what the NHC does. To bad she didnt have 6-12 more hrs over water. Since nowhere is reporting anything close to sustaind winds of 75 mph I bet they leave her at 70 mph.....however it will be interesting to see what this buoy does when the eastern side crosses it http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 When was the last May Hurricane? Charely had minimal impact on Jacksonville St Augistine but it might have been the closest thing they've seen in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I'm staying at a hotel in Atlantic Beach. Weather is getting bad. Hearing police sirens non stop. Pretty sure we will lose power soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 really wrappin up! http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JAX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 When was the last May Hurricane? Charely had minimal impact on Jacksonville St Augistine but it might have been the closest thing they've seen in a long time. I believe the last May hurricane was Allison in 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I'm staying at a hotel in Atlantic Beach. Weather is getting bad. Hearing police sirens non stop. Pretty sure we will lose power soon. looks like you're about to get really pounded next 10 minutes, just really starting to kick up here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 LOL while it would be a cool tidbit for there to be a May landfalling cane in NE Florida I think she is a little late and with the western eyewall already landfalling it will be interesting to see what the NHC does. To bad she didnt have 6-12 more hrs over water. Since nowhere is reporting anything close to sustaind winds of 75 mph I bet they leave her at 70 mph.....however it will be interesting to see what this buoy does when the eastern side crosses it http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012 Well... Surface obs have never been a pre-req for an upgrade, so I wouldn't worry about that. They'll base it on flight data and the radar presentation. I'm staying at a hotel in Atlantic Beach. Weather is getting bad. Hearing police sirens non stop. Pretty sure we will lose power soon. Awesome. Hopefully you can keep us updated after you lose power. Do you have mobile Internet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I believe the last May hurricane was Allison in 1995. 95, not a bad year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Keep in mind, cyclones can and often do continue to intensify up until the *center* of the eye crosses the coast-- and sometimes even past that moment (like Andrew 1992). So the fact that the W eyewall is edging ashore does *not* mean it's out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I believe the last May hurricane was Allison in 1995. Looked it up, Allison was June 2nd-6th Edit: 70mph on the 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 ...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY ON THE COAST... 8:00 PM EDT Sun May 27 Location: 30.1°N 80.5°W Max sustained: 70 mph Moving: W at 10 mph Min pressure: 992 mb Bummer... Maybe at 11 if it hasn't crossed the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 She looks like she's barely moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaysin Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 no go.. for 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 800 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 ...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY ON THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 80.5W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I believe the last May hurricane was Allison in 1995. Allison was in early June. The last May hurricane was actually Alma in 1970. If Beryl makes landfall at 50kt or higher (should be easy to do), it will be the strongest US May landfall since a minimal hurricane hit the Outer Banks in 1908 (!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THE BERYL IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH WOULD MAKE BERYL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL...AND BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 no go.. for 8 DAMN IT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 The 8 pm EDT advisory puts it at 60 kt and says any additional organization will make it a Cat 1. So, if the radar presentation improves in the next few hours, we have a hurricane. The center is still several hours offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 noob question...but Beryl has been referred to thus far as sub-tropical...if it reaches hurricane strength is it automatically tropical, or would it be sub-tropical hurricane beryl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Who would have predicted a few days ago that this would become a cane (or close to it)? Gotta love the tropics. The intensity models still need a lot of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 noob question...but Beryl has been referred to thus far as sub-tropical...if it reaches hurricane strength is it automatically tropical, or would it be sub-tropical hurricane beryl? No she's gone totally trop. They wouldn't classify her as ST-Hurricane Beryl, just Hurricane Beryl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.