March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[Analog96]

history says we do. As I previously mentioned, 2nd year ninas are usually dry for the northeast.

even if we do start to approach nino at some point, atmosphere doesnt turn on a dime, we wouldn't see a return to wet conditions till October probably.

Perfect for winter!

[bluewave]

The models have been under forecasting the warmest days with the recent dry conditions.

I would probably extend the coverage of temps above 80 here on Thursday more than

the NAM is showing.

[pazzo83]

Sky looks tropical. DCA right now has a dewpoint of 63F in March. WTF.

[RutgersWx92]

Right and 2 weeks before AUG 14- 15 - NYC got close to 10 inches of rain from tha hybrid system that

meandered on thru .

Yeah much of NJ had 15-20 inches of rain that month (the average for NJ as a whole was 17.16, which is about 13 inches wetter than normal). It was the wettest of any month on record for NJ. And then September was also pretty wet from the remnants of Lee; NYC metro got 6-8 inches that month.

[Weathergun]

The models have been under forecasting the warmest days with the recent dry conditions.

I would probably extend the coverage of temps above 80 here on Thursday more than

the NAM is showing.

I agree. Many places, away from the beaches, will probably see low 80s, with 850mb temps 11-12C and a WSW flow. Maybe a few degrees higher in the hotspots.

[pazzo83]

71/59 in the park right now. Unreal.

[earthlight]

I'd go with 82 or maybe a degree or two higher at Newark on Thursday. I don't really see anything arguing otherwise. But the models have a low cloud deck over the south shore of LI and the NJ Shore so i'd watch the highs at JFK. Winds are SW there initially but then turn S.

[tornadojay]

agree with the thinking on Thursday.. 80-85 should be the range that inland spots should hit on Thursday, given the latest guidance.

[forkyfork]

i thought we'd have no shot at 70 today with the se winds... oops. it's tough to accomplish this in may

[NorEaster27]

south shore of queens, 68/60

[Metsfan]

agree with the thinking on Thursday.. 80-85 should be the range that inland spots should hit on Thursday, given the latest guidance.

Thursdays temperatures look to rise to the lower 80s for inland areas with mixing to the dry adiabatic lapse rate to the 900 hpa level. For coastal areas the afternoon sea breeze will limit temperatures to the lower 70s with mixing to a more moist lapse rate.

[bluewave]

We should beat the record of 7 70 degree days in March 1945 at Central Park over the next few days with the 6th today.

[tmagan]

17Z Observations/Streamlines

[SnoSki14]

We should beat the record of 7 70 degree days in March 1945 at Central Park over the next few days with the 6th today.

So what kind of above normal departures are we going to see by the end of the week or even so far and how close will we get to the warmest March on record.

[tmagan]

18Z Observations/Streamlines

[doncat]

I always like how Staten Island has been swallowed up by the ocean on that map.

[snywx]

73* here... A little cooler than yesterday but still gorgeous

[ag3]

LGA switched to the south and temps spiked up dramatically. Now the warmest of the NYC stations.

3pm:

LGA: 72

NYC: 71

EWR: 70

JFK: 66

[killabud]

this is obviously wrong,right????? http://www.wundergro...w:11010.1.99999

83? it's pretty warm..but that seems kind of high

[IsentropicLift]

im not talking about the reservoirs, but soil moisture and precip departuers from normal, we are absolutely heading that way.

Makes sense, 2nd year ninas are known to strangle the northeast with dry conditions. Look for water restrictions by June at this rate.

Mother nature seems to always reverse its extremes, this will be the first March in three years around here without a major flood.

[xram]

this is obviously wrong,right????? http://www.wundergro...w:11010.1.99999

83? it's pretty warm..but that seems kind of high

I am @ 80.2 right now.

[ag3]

Looks like the 12z euro has about 1" of rain late Saturday night and all day Sunday from a cutoff.

All models have a healthy dose of rain from this cutoff but with different timing. Hopefully, its an overnight type thing or can get delayed until Monday.

We also have to watch for much bigger rain amounts, since these cutoffs are very hard for models to accurately forecast.

[Brian5671]

Looks like the 12z euro has about 1" of rain late Saturday night and all day Sunday from a cutoff.

All models have a healthy dose of rain from this cutoff but with different timing. Hopefully, its an overnight type thing or can get delayed until Monday.

We also have to watch for much bigger rain amounts, since these cutoffs are very hard for models to accurately forecast.

Good point. While we don't want rain on a weekend, we can use a good dose. Hopefully it comes at night like you said or is delayed by a day.

[ag3]

Good point. While we don't want rain on a weekend, we can use a good dose. Hopefully it comes at night like you said or is delayed by a day.

The weather is gorgeous but its so boring. At this point, I'd welcome a nice soaking by the cutoff but prefer it not to ruin a weekend.

Unfortunately, all models and every ensemble product has a strong signal for a decent cutoff coastal for our area on Sunday.

[Isotherm]

Another day of March misery and torture. Just sweated through my suit and shirt walking back to my apartment. Dew point of around 60 with temps in the mid/upper 70s is above and beyond anything I've ever experienced at this time of year. It's actually too warm to wear anything else besides shorts and a t-shirt, which I'm on week 3 now. I feel bad for those who have to wear a suit/shirt every day with no A/C.

[jm1220]

Another day of March misery and torture. Just sweated through my suit and shirt walking back to my apartment. Dew point of around 60 with temps in the mid/upper 70s is above and beyond anything I've ever experienced at this time of year. It's actually too warm to wear anything else besides shorts and a t-shirt, which I'm on week 3 now. I feel bad for those who have to wear a suit/shirt every day with no A/C.

Me!! Feels like Orlando in my office this afternoon.

[nycsnow]

The weather is gorgeous but its so boring. At this point, I'd welcome a nice soaking by the cutoff but prefer it not to ruin a weekend.

Unfortunately, all models and every ensemble product has a strong signal for a decent cutoff coastal for our area on Sunday.

I hope it magically bust!

[ag3]

Immediate coastal sections of the north shore of LI are sitting at 50-59 degrees right now, when only a 1/2 mile inland, the temp is in the upper 60's to low 70's.

Example: Kings Point Academy, LI is 58 degrees while just inland in Whitesone and Bayside is 70-72 right now. Less then 2 miles apart.

[Sundog]

I don't envy those people in New Jersey. I wish there was more of a breeze so I can establish a current through my house.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Warmest day so far here with a light ENE flow!!! Amazing that its 5 degrees warmer here today then yesterday despite the forecast for the opposite!