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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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Sundog

Sundog

Posted
Posted

Immediate coastal sections of the north shore of LI are sitting at 50-59 degrees right now, when only a 1/2 mile inland, the temp is in the upper 60's to low 70's.

Example: Kings Point, LI is 58 degrees while just inland in Whitesone and Bayside is 70-72 right now. Less then 1 mile apart.

We have less water in between us and the mainland than does Kings Point. They get a much better fetch of wind off the water. I can walk to the Throgs Neck in 5 minutes it's still pretty warm here all things considered.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

Immediate coastal sections of the north shore of LI are sitting at 50-59 degrees right now, when only a 1/2 mile inland, the temp is in the upper 60's to low 70's.

Example: Kings Point Academy, LI is 58 degrees while just inland in Whitesone and Bayside is 70-72 right now. Less then 2 miles apart.

Same thing happens in CT-BDR and HVN barely hit 60 while 2-3 miles inland, low 70's. of course the TV jokers say "oh it was only 60 at the shoreline" and in reality for most it was much warmer.

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

that map can still be heavily skewed by the ultra wet months prior to January of this year. It can also change very quickly with continued persistant dryness like we could see in a second year nina.

The map might not be directly skewed, it's not like those precipitation amounts didn't happen. The map has indexes/etc that measure the drought conditions.

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TheTrials

TheTrials

Posted
Posted

The map might not be directly skewed, it's not like those precipitation amounts didn't happen. The map has indexes/etc that measure the drought conditions.

we had a lot of rain and snow last year, reservoirs are not going to be hurting right now and water tables are probably still high, but give it a few more months like this and that changes quickly, especially with farming season beginning soon.

Fact is, its dry right now and should stay this way long term so its something to keep an eye on.

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

This heat is miserable because my new office cant turn on the AC themselves and the building doesnt turn on AC until MAY...been pouring sweat past two days, thankfully i dont need to wear suits at the new job...but i also lost my window! So unless i take over the firm and get another window office, my weather observing is over during the week from 9-5. :cry:

The fog this morning was the thickest i have seen in a few years at least, visibility was well below 1/4 mile by me, and i am 5+ miles from any water.

Time to walk to dog and enjoy the heat wave.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

we had a lot of rain and snow last year, reservoirs are not going to be hurting right now and water tables are probably still high, but give it a few more months like this and that changes quickly, especially with farming season beginning soon.

Fact is, its dry right now and should stay this way long term so its something to keep an eye on.

There is a chance of a soaker this weekend from a cutoff.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

we had a lot of rain and snow last year, reservoirs are not going to be hurting right now and water tables are probably still high, but give it a few more months like this and that changes quickly, especially with farming season beginning soon.

Fact is, its dry right now and should stay this way long term so its something to keep an eye on.

it's remarkable how all the dry streaks since 2003 have broken down after a few months.

If we see this persisting beyond JFM, then we'll know that this one has legs. 2009 the last

second year Nina was dry at this time of year also.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

it's remarkable how all the dry streaks since 2003 have broken down after a few months.

If we see this persisting beyond JFM, then we'll know that this one has legs. 2009 the last

second year Nina was dry at this time of year also.

the last dry year was 2001 and the first two months of 2002...the driest period of all time by a mile is the period from late 1962 to the fall of 1966...

driest years

year.......total precip."

1965......26.09"

1964......32.99"

1910......33.72"

1935......33.85"

1963......34.28"

1970......35.29"

1885......35.37"

1895......35.37"

1954......35.58"

1892......35.60"

1883......35.77"

2001......35.92"

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

the last dry year was 2001 and the first two months of 2002...the driest period of all time by a mile is the period from late 1962 to the fall of 1966...

driest years

year.......total precip."

1965......26.09"

1964......32.99"

1910......33.72"

1935......33.85"

1963......34.28"

1970......35.29"

1885......35.37"

1895......35.37"

1954......35.58"

1892......35.60"

1883......35.77"

2001......35.92"

1965 really stands out among the rest. I can remember all the brown lawns back in 8/95 and 7/99.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

we had a lot of rain and snow last year, reservoirs are not going to be hurting right now and water tables are probably still high, but give it a few more months like this and that changes quickly, especially with farming season beginning soon.

Fact is, its dry right now and should stay this way long term so its something to keep an eye on.

Honest question-what's your reasoning for the dryness to continue?

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

Interestingly, unlike the last couple of days, the NAM keeps trending slightly colder for tomorrow and Thursday... the 6z run had mid 70s on Wednesday and low 80s on Thursday, while the latest 0z run barely has 70 degrees tomorrow and about 76-78 degrees or so on Thursday. Perhaps it could still end up warmer than the NAM is showing considering that over the last few days it's been a few degrees too low even 6 hours out, but this trend including the 10C 850mb line struggling to drop much south of NYC, unlike some of the earlier runs which easily dropped it to our south, isn't encouraging towards the potential of reaching and/or passing 80 degrees for a more widespread area.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

Interestingly, unlike the last couple of days, the NAM keeps trending slightly colder for tomorrow and Thursday... the 6z run had mid 70s on Wednesday and low 80s on Thursday, while the latest 0z run barely has 70 degrees tomorrow and about 76-78 degrees or so on Thursday. Perhaps it could still end up warmer than the NAM is showing considering that over the last few days it's been a few degrees too low even 6 hours out, but this trend including the 10C 850mb line struggling to drop much south of NYC, unlike some of the earlier runs which easily dropped it to our south, isn't encouraging towards the potential of reaching and/or passing 80 degrees for a more widespread area.

I've noticed a model trend for slightly cooler 850mb temps on Thursday. But the 0z NAM also has light winds switching to the S/SSE from NYC east, early Thursday afternoon.

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