N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I wholeheartedly agree and I think most in the know do as well. If the ground had been cold today that certainly would have helped..but if you get a warm ground and asun angle that is as high in the sky as mid Oct as it is now..it's just not going to be able to accumulate well in a low 30's type of airmass. This even came in at a good time for the Cape..It started snowing there right around sunrise..the coldest part of the day when the sun was still low.. Now if temps were in the 20's it would have accumulated better..but still would accumulate like it would in Late Dec or jan I took alot of crap for that...but when Frank from BOX who is a very good met had it in the afd the other day..we knew it was legit no move on it was only about the rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I wholeheartedly agree and I think most in the know do as well. If the ground had been cold today that certainly would have helped..but if you get a warm ground and asun angle that is as high in the sky as mid Oct as it is now..it's just not going to be able to accumulate well in a low 30's type of airmass. This even came in at a good time for the Cape..It started snowing there right around sunrise..the coldest part of the day when the sun was still low.. Now if temps were in the 20's it would have accumulated better..but still would accumulate like it would in Late Dec or jan I took alot of crap for that...but when Frank from BOX who is a very good met had it in the afd the other day..we knew it was legit You just kind of disproved your point here...the fact the Cape had trouble sticking early in the morning before the sun angle was a factor tells us that the lower precip rates and marginal temps were much more the reason than the sun angle was. Sun angle may have cost Phil an inch or snow or less...but it was a minor factor compared to the less intense precip rates and already marginal airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 You just kind of disproved your point here...the fact the Cape had trouble sticking early in the morning before the sun angle was a factor tells us that the lower precip rates and marginal temps were much more the reason than the sun angle was. Sun angle may have cost Phil an inch or snow or less...but it was a minor factor compared to the less intense precip rates and already marginal airmass. Well not really because the heaviest snow didn't start falling there until mid-late morning when the sun was high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The airmass was marginal to begin with...so even in late Dec, this would have had trouble down in SE MA...probably slightly less trouble than today, but the difference was most certainly not 4-5" vs 1.5"...maybe Phil would have had 2.3" or something if it was New Years instead of 1.5". When you have 1-2 mile visibility light snow in a marginal airmass, it will be lousy accumulation rates even with a lower sun angle. They were progged to get several hours of 1/2 to 1/4 mile mod/heavy snow which was the biggest killer in the forecast. I think people like to overplay the sun angle argument when an event doesn't get as heavy as forecast and we are beyond a certain time of the year. This. I'm no expert but my 5o+ years of living out here verifies this statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Well not really because the heaviest snow didn't start falling there until mid-late morning when the sun was high Ok, believe what you want...but the fact we never saw consistent 1/2 mile or less snowfall rates is the main reason...regardless of what you want to believe. We said a bunch of times that the airmass would be an issue if the precip stayed lighter...and unfortunately that happened. This would have been lousy in December too...maybe only marginally less lousy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Ok, believe what you want...but the fact we never saw consistent 1/2 mile or less snowfall rates is the main reason...regardless of what you want to believe. We said a bunch of times that the airmass would be an issue if the precip stayed lighter...and unfortunately that happened. This would have been lousy in December too...maybe only marginally less lousy. If so..why would it have been marginally better in December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 If so..why would it have been marginally better in December? Sun angle is lower...longer time of darkness. I said the sun angle was a minor factor, not a major one like you are trying to make it out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Total dud here like everywhere else. Had about 1-2 mm of snow instead of 1-2 inches, which has since melted under the rising mid February sun angle. I'm expecting some upslope snow shower activity in these parts as the CAA gets cranking later on. Radars off to the west look a bit intriguing to me as lingering moisture will get wrung out by upslope and CAA. Not expecting much, but I'll take whatever flake I can get. Who knows...maybe Pete, MPM, or I will get lucky and get an inch or two. Unlike Pete, mostly bare ground here. About 25-30% coverage, mostly in the woods and shady areas. Strange little enclave of snow cover on the east slope thanks to the cold air trapping that occurs there during torches. Even the crest at 2K+ can get warmer than a little ways down on the east slope like where Pete is. Weird little phenomenon that is present all the time, but has made itself particularly evident this winter. 29/23, The radar to the west does look interesting, hopefully we can score a little this evening. The east slope's ability to hold the snow makes me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 the marginal airmass was a large factor i just didn't realize it was advertised as that marginal. i know we weren't really 'confident" of precip rates outside of the cape but even with less qpf i thought the BL was warmer than advertised ...maybe i'm off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 the marginal airmass was a large factor i just didn't realize it was advertised as that marginal. i know we weren't really 'confident" of precip rates outside of the cape but even with less qpf i thought the BL was warmer than advertised regardless The BL ended up a bit warmer because of the less intense precip rates...it was plenty cold just aloft, but with heavier precip rates, the BL was advertised to be cooler...when the heavier rates failed to really get going, so too did the colder BL temps. We saw lots of 33F and SN- obs on the Cape which likely would have been 31-32F if they could have had heavier snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The BL ended up a bit warmer because of the less intense precip rates...it was plenty cold just aloft, but with heavier precip rates, the BL was advertised to be cooler...when the heavier rates failed to really get going, so too did the colder BL temps. We saw lots of 33F and SN- obs on the Cape which likely would have been 31-32F if they could have had heavier snow. The sun angle argument is absolutely ridiculous. How the heck did this become a hot topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Can we lock up this ugly thread and throw it on the dustbin of history? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The sun angle argument is absolutely ridiculous. How the heck did this become a hot topic. Are you making a pun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The sun angle argument is absolutely ridiculous. How the heck did this become a hot topic. Especially when you consider the sun of today is the sun of October 30, and we all remember what happened the last time we had this sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The BL ended up a bit warmer because of the less intense precip rates...it was plenty cold just aloft, but with heavier precip rates, the BL was advertised to be cooler...when the heavier rates failed to really get going, so too did the colder BL temps. We saw lots of 33F and SN- obs on the Cape which likely would have been 31-32F if they could have had heavier snow. Yup. We were 36 at the change over and when the rates picked up, we dropped to 33. When it slacked off we went to 34. Accumulation didn't have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Sun angle is lower...longer time of darkness. I said the sun angle was a minor factor, not a major one like you are trying to make it out to be. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 seems some think it's a legit but minor factor ...others ridiculous (i'm doing my best to post like ct blizz would) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Thing is turning into a monster. Congrats NS and Newfoundland. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SPN/COMP/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Can we lock up this ugly thread and throw it on the dustbin of history? Yeah while you're at it can the last 3+ months be added to that dustbin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The cloud tops were up around 450mb this afternoon on the Cape so there wasn't much insolation to begin with where the banding was. Sun angle doesn't mean much this time of year with a thick overcast. Further west was obviously a different story with lower cloud tops and BKN skies. Most of the home sites I glanced at on the Cape stayed between 100-200 w/m^2 today for a max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 .5" here today.. .2" this morning and then .3" around 6 PM from some kind of squall. Still 23 so the real cold air hasn't arrived yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Fairly certain that we saw about 5 flakes up here in Lowell. And as a side note. I just stuck my head out the window. Feels like the Cold Front is pushing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Moncton forecast: Winter storm warning in effect. Tonight Snow at times heavy and blowing snow. Amount 20 to 30 cm. Wind becoming northeast 30 km/h gusting to 50 early this evening then north 40 gusting to 60 after midnight. Low minus 9. Sunday Flurries ending near noon then clearing. Amount 2 cm. Local blowing snow in the morning. Wind north 40 km/h gusting to 60 becoming northwest 30 gusting to 50 in the morning then west 20 gusting to 40 early in the afternoon. High minus 7. Sunday night A few clouds. Wind west 20 km/h gusting to 40. Low minus 22. Cold wind chill minus 33. Monday Sunny. High minus 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The ice here is about 8-10" or so thick. Maybe more like 8". Still some water near the shore line. Apparently people feel comfy enough to drive their truck on the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 .5" here today.. .2" this morning and then .3" around 6 PM from some kind of squall. Still 23 so the real cold air hasn't arrived yet. what real cold? Cold, sure but nothing artic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Moncton forecast: Winter storm warning in effect. Tonight Snow at times heavy and blowing snow. Amount 20 to 30 cm. Wind becoming northeast 30 km/h gusting to 50 early this evening then north 40 gusting to 60 after midnight. Low minus 9. Sunday Flurries ending near noon then clearing. Amount 2 cm. Local blowing snow in the morning. Wind north 40 km/h gusting to 60 becoming northwest 30 gusting to 50 in the morning then west 20 gusting to 40 early in the afternoon. High minus 7. Sunday night A few clouds. Wind west 20 km/h gusting to 40. Low minus 22. Cold wind chill minus 33. Monday Sunny. High minus 12. Interesting you should post this. I work for a company headquartered in Moncton NB and spend about 1/2 of my time up there. Being the winter/snow hater that I am - I could not have picked a more dreadful place - WEATHERWISE ONLY - to work. (love the people and man are they proud of their snow!) I was unfortunately there for their biggest storm (before this one) on Feb 1st where about 16" to 18" fell in about a 12 hour period. Of course, as the last flakes were flying the roads were cleared like it never snowed. It is hard core winter up there right now. At least 4 days had below zero lows and most days never really got out of the teens. Most waterways are frozen or at least ice clogged. If anyone is wondering where our winter is... It's alive and well in Moncton - less than 600 miles away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I think it was 1991 or 1992 when Moncton had that massive Noreaster with like 50-60 inches of snow. It was a modest clipper (for us) that exploded off NE and buried NB. So I remembered that and checked out Moncton's forecast for this storm. That early 90's winter was a thankless one here (if you like snow) and every storm was blowing up too far east of us. Seems like we had split flow and the southern stream energy could never phase for us. It may have been a very different pattern, but it sure reminds me of this winter for futility. Interesting you should post this. I work for a company headquartered in Moncton NB and spend about 1/2 of my time up there. Being the winter/snow hater that I am - I could not have picked a more dreadful place - WEATHERWISE ONLY - to work. (love the people and man are they proud of their snow!) I was unfortunately there for their biggest storm (before this one) on Feb 1st where about 16" to 18" fell in about a 12 hour period. Of course, as the last flakes were flying the roads were cleared like it never snowed. It is hard core winter up there right now. At least 4 days had below zero lows and most days never really got out of the teens. Most waterways are frozen or at least ice clogged. If anyone is wondering where our winter is... It's alive and well in Moncton - less than 600 miles away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I think it was 1991 or 1992 when Moncton had that massive Noreaster with like 50-60 inches of snow. It was a modest clipper (for us) that exploded off NE and buried NB. So I remembered that and checked out Moncton's forecast for this storm. That early 90's winter was a thankless one here (if you like snow) and every storm was blowing up too far east of us. Seems like we had split flow and the southern stream energy could never phase for us. It may have been a very different pattern, but it sure reminds me of this winter for futility. You are exactly right. They just had the 20 year anniversary of that storm when I was up there last week. There was a feature about it on their weather channel (The Weather Network) and Moncton recorded over 5 feet of snow from that storm over a 3 day period. Moncton is definitely the snow belt for NB. About 30 miles to the south - as you cross into Amherst Nova Scotia the snow usually drops off dramatically. And further up the North Umberland Strait - along Route 11 up towards Bouctouche - the amounts usually begin to drop off as well - albeit more gradually. Moncton is in the thick of it right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I think it was 1991 or 1992 when Moncton had that massive Noreaster with like 50-60 inches of snow. It was a modest clipper (for us) that exploded off NE and buried NB. So I remembered that and checked out Moncton's forecast for this storm. That early 90's winter was a thankless one here (if you like snow) and every storm was blowing up too far east of us. Seems like we had split flow and the southern stream energy could never phase for us. It may have been a very different pattern, but it sure reminds me of this winter for futility. At whiteface today I noticed some writing on the lift polls of the 1992 snow depth, seemed to be some kind of record. Anyone have more info on that winter for the north country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The sun angle argument is absolutely ridiculous. How the heck did this become a hot topic. Because someone at BOX mentioned it an Kev ran with it (spin master). It was a minor factor but it ended up being a lack of heavy precip, marginal low level temps, prior air mass that was not ideal, and relatively warm ground/sol temps. I have no snow on the ground to speak of despite 8 hours of -sn. I enjoyed the snow. Was nice to see it fall. I'm calling my total 1/2" for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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