mattb65 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Instead of the primary track..can someone give details...sounds like a messy mix of rain/wet snow from that description..or is it too warm in the BL? Looks like it would be decent for elevated interior and favored CAD spots - verbatim I think you see a few flakes at the start and a pretty quick flip to rain.... toaster bath for the CP and south of the pike as modeled. Looks borderline for all of SNE except for maybe GC and the monads and/or north ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Euro looks ugly...wet snow to start in the high interior, then over to rain and then maybe back to wet snow at the end. Its Ugly, but not as much as the GFS... It actually develops a low over the cape towards the end of the storm and give NH and ME some snows. If we can get that northern stream to dig like that last storm, we're in business. Its good that the last storm trended that way. Maybe this one will do so as well. The 850 line crashes during this storm which is weird... The major thing is that the threat is not dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 For Thursday? Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 At this point a NNE ski area special is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 At this point a NNE ski area special is fine with me. That it would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Friday How is the ridging to the north? That would b important up our way you'd think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Everyone except NW Maine gets above 32F 18z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Terrible and no thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 At this point a NNE ski area special is fine with me. Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Friday Yeah Thursday night into Friday...verbatim does look like it changes NW areas back over to snow during the day Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 How is the ridging to the north? That would b important up our way you'd think Does not look that bad up here mark, Surface warms for a time but the 0c and 540 thickness stay well SE of here before 2m temps crash back SE as the low gets going in the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Terrible and no thanks Verbatim, after 3-5" of 28-32F and snow, everyone basically in civilization in NNE goes slushy. Gross. Ski areas need this badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This threat def has a shot for the interior...esp elevations given the marginal airmass...but we won't have any clue really if this is a significant threat until tomorrw night at the earliest I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 Good luck with that 15" by Friday, Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Everyone except NW Maine gets above 32F 18z Friday. Meh, it's snow at elevation, way too early anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This threat def has a shot for the interior...esp elevations given the marginal airmass...but we won't have any clue really if this is a significant threat until tomorrw night at the earliest I would think. Have the Euro ens been giving us in the interior a shot at snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Don't worry guys...the control run will show a blizzard with 24-30" for all...only place with a mix will be far SE NJ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Everyone except NW Maine gets above 32F 18z Friday. Actually most of NNE hangs near 30-34F on the higher res WU maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 Have the Euro ens been giving us in the interior a shot at snow? Areas above 1000' and n of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Anyone with elevation, below 0C mid-level temps, and high precip rates is going to get a paste bomb regardless of what models try to do with the sfc. Those details won't be resolved for a few days I don't think. The risk is definitely cutting too far west in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Meh, it's snow at elevation, way too early anyway. Way too early. But yeah summits would be ok in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Areas above 1000' and n of the pike. Anyone with elevation, below 0C mid-level temps, and high precip rates is going to get a paste bomb regardless of what models try to do with the sfc. Those details won't be resolved for a few days I don't think. The risk is definitely cutting too far west in this setup. Gay FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Anyone with elevation, below 0C mid-level temps, and high precip rates is going to get a paste bomb regardless of what models try to do with the sfc. Those details won't be resolved for a few days I don't think. The risk is definitely cutting too far west in this setup. Congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Hmm, about to leave before I go back to school. Wonder if I should bring a beach towel or an inflatable raft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Actually most of NNE hangs near 30-34F on the higher res WU maps. Yeah on SV, the 32F gets to near Jackman,ME, but I dont know about the resolution of them. 0C stays well south along with 540dm so this early it looks okay...but from experience I wouldnt be surprised if the CT river valley hits 34 or 35F in this set up with snow still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 .75" qpf here, A stronger system will want to track west and with marginal cold air that could spell trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 Nope, not much at all in Tolland.....just like his last delusional "forecast". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 By "control run", doesn't that mean controlling the parameterization such that you can control the runs outcome ? I'm pretty sure that is what that means, and modelers/scientists develop these types of tools (in any discipline for that matter) to explore permutation, and "what it would take" to get x, y, z scenario to unfold. It's actually a wise thing to do when studying complex systems. Unfortunately, though, one could get any tool to forecast an errant black hole careening through the Solar System if that is the case. In this situation, you have a lingering albeit decaying +PNA and some hints at a temperature -NAO spike, so it probably doesn't take a very big data nudge to push a solution over the top like that. As to the post, either it is a hoax, or, I am surprised that the individual is taking it all that seriously. If they ran a control run and forced the model to output a historic - if not histrionic - sort of scenario, that IS a joke; again, if that is the case. Let's see ... this winter has sucked harder than an event horizon for winter weather fans, so let's throw them an elixir by forcing a marginally conducive interval of time to maximize potential. I call that a worse tease than what just happened. Oh...by the way, what just happened was about the worse thing that could have happened to a collective audience already aching from the proverbial lash. I tell you what ... there is more to the old adage about Nature showing no remorse, than just an affectation. Because having a system do what this last one just did after the winter being suffered is shooting a dead horse in the head and then celebrating the kill. Alright, back to sensible reality... There has been discussion about whether the MJO and the NAO have a correlation. They do, but it is a lag correlation, and the forcing comes from the PNA. What happens is forcing off a Phase ~8~ distributes a ridge into western N/A (+PNA however transient...). That subsequently will lower heights over area east of ~100 longitude. If/when there are S/W dynamics timed well, this large scale L/W reconstruction event will feed-back as constructive wave interference, and the S/W gets the proverbial steroid shot in the bicep and really gets powerful. The result is inevitably a larger scale cylogenesis event. It's really the conceptual model of the Archembault statistical science on the matter.. So anyway, said synoptic scale event then moves up into the Martimes depositing/terminating large scale WAA into the NAO domain, at higher altitudes. This massive latent heat injection causes an immediate geopotential height response (growth) and mid and upper level ridging is the result. This can be transient. The correlation is no 1::1; nothing in the atmosphere, teleconnectors air and sea ever are. The NAO is a domain that spans some of the Arctic as well the middle latitudes. So obviously ... this kind of lag physical connection to the Pacific is just another in several ways to motivate change in the NAO. How all this pertains to the current era intrigues me. (Though as a side note ... I have been intrigued on several other occasions this winter and nothing has yet happened). The MJO passed powerfully and boldly through Phase 7 (West Pac), now into Phase 8 as above moderate strength (stronger than the guidance means had it, at that!). The PNA has been rather luck luster in either the operational, or ensemble means of the GEF. I am not totally certain of the ECMWF's ensemble mean,but just using the freebie over at PSU's E-wall, the D8-10 is not demonstratively different than the GEFs, so I'm assuming confidently it too is rather negligent to pick up on any MJO -related forcing. Perhaps they won't and that will verify that way - again, the "no 1::1 correlators exist" axiom applies just as well to the MJO. I have always maintained, and believe, that the MJO's effects can be damped if the surrounding medium is out of phase with its wave signature. But that's a different discussion... Suppose that is not the case, this time. What it is that I find intriguing is best described by the preliminary discussion from NCEP overnight/this morning: "LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE GFS...GEFS MEAN...AND GEM GLOBAL ALL BREAK FROM THE SPLIT FLOW CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS ENTIRE COLD SEASON WITH A SUSPICIOUSLY CLEAN LOOKING POSITIVE PNA PATTERN. THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HONOR THE SPLIT THROUGH THE FORECAST. ACCORDINGLY AND AGAIN SHYING AWAY FROM INDIVIDUAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREFER A SOLUTION CLOSEST TO ECMWF ENSEMBLES BUT DID ADD IN 30% GFS ENSEMBLES TO HEDGE UNCERTAINTY." I am curious here whether the MJO may be playing a part in getting the GEFs/GGEM means to look "suspiciously" more PNA like. There is certainly plausibility there. NCEP doesn't appear to make any MJO connection in there discussion (this above being an excerpt from the prelim). They may also have their reasoning, but I am not sure I necessarily agree that the ECM mean should be taken more coherently than the GEFs given to performance over the last 45 days overall. The Euro cluster may have a better score, but neither score is better then the other enough to mute the argument signaled by the MJO - that could be a shaky source for error in their reasoning. We'll see. Sufficed it is to say, the Phase 7 relay into 8 has been the most powerful MJO the entire cold season, and being that it is still on-going combined with the current correlation leaving so much to be desired relative to that, at any time one must wonder if the PNA won't tend to correct higher. We'll have to see how that pans out. It is/will be the only thing going for this crippled laughable excuse of a cold season. Because otherwise, both CDC and CPC's extended teleconnector layouts would probably herald in an early spring. ...Eh, around and around we go...but if the MJO/Pac overall isn't really registered(ing) (yet) in the middle and upper latitudes, that too would be subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 GGEM ftw... 980mb low basically near Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Nope, not much at all in Tolland.....just like his last delusional "forecast". 0c line south of me FTW..YOU 36 and rain ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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