Tropopause_Fold Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Hope so man..I'm only mildly hopeful. Too many things seem like they are wrong well it could ultimately suck - god knows that's the theme this winter and it's still 5 days out - but it does have a few things going for it. the antecedent air mass issue isn't a concern away from the CP. it might not be straight snow, but i'd be interested if i were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 well it could ultimately suck - god knows that's the theme this winter and it's still 5 days out - but it does have a few things going for it. the antecedent air mass issue isn't a concern away from the CP. it might not be straight snow, but i'd be interested if i were you. how'd ensembles look early in the game for overnite thur/fri am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Calling the JMA solution a "severe noreaster" is a way over-statement. It's a pedestrian coastal winter storm. QPF totals there are under 1.5 inches with mixing issues early... so figure 1.2" worth in snow is 10-14" . It would be stellar for this season. but not severe by any stretch. :weenie: double bunner for actually posting the 144 hr JMA and talking QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 well it could ultimately suck - god knows that's the theme this winter and it's still 5 days out - but it does have a few things going for it. the antecedent air mass issue isn't a concern away from the CP. it might not be straight snow, but i'd be interested if i were you. I'm always interested..and these marginal events are always my favorite(if it snows) but we've been burned so much this year..it's hard to really think it'll happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I'm always interested..and these marginal events are always my favorite(if it snows) but we've been burned so much this year..it's hard to really think it'll happen http://raleighwx.ame...0mbWinds120.gif not bad .....don't be like a scorned gf who can't get past her old bf's cheating on her as HM would say this system has nothing to do with the other's...it's a more favorable pattern overall go Ballz deep snow sleet snow at the mt. tolland inn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 how'd ensembles look early in the game for overnite thur/fri am ec ens look like they are just inside the BM by 12z fri. it's fairly mild on those progs but weenie extrapolation would suggest damage is done by that point. i don't know...maybe it cuts through BUF and it's 55F in BOS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 It's February, the sun angle is too high. It can't snow. thankfully this won't be occuring from 930-3 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 http://raleighwx.ame...0mbWinds120.gif not bad .....don't be like a scorned gf who can't get past her old bf's cheating on her as HM would say this system has nothing to do with the other's...it's a more favorable pattern overall go Ballz deep snow sleet snow at the mt. tolland inn BOX has rain border to border in SNE..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 ec ens look like they are just inside the BM by 12z fri. it's fairly mild on those progs but weenie extrapolation would suggest damage is done by that point. i don't know...maybe it cuts through BUF and it's 55F in BOS... LOL... this winter... anything is possible. I do have some interest in this storm. Seems like it could be fairly messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 :weenie: double bunner for actually posting the 144 hr JMA and talking QPF. whatever...i wasn't posting that because i thought/think it has a chance to happen - I'm actually refuting the previous characterization of the thing ... those buns belong on the original poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 LOL... this winter... anything is possible as long as it doesn't mean snow. I should not have interest in this storm. Because even though it seems like it could be fairly messy, the seasonal trend to not snow seemingly because of metaphysics more than physics will continue bang backsides. Corrected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 whatever...i wasn't posting that because i thought/think it has a chance to happen - I'm actually refuting the previous characterization of the thing ... those buns belong on the original poster. LOL...no ill-will intended. it was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 LOL... this winter... anything is possible. I do have some interest in this storm. Seems like it could be fairly messy. yeah i guess i wouldn't be expecting a blockbuster or anything...but there is some potential for a "wintry appeal" to the whole thing. some decent CAD signaled..even the ec ens have a nice kink in the mslp fields. there's some brief ridging up into the DS region out ahead of this too. even though the 12z euro has even more of a cutter look vs. previous runs (seems like everything did today) it actually strengthens the surface HP as it passes NNE more on this run...it's getting up there closer to 1030 mb. i'm not expecting a 1234ABC (or whatever his name was) euro control run blizzard...but maybe some snow to ice over the interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 LOL...no ill-will intended. it was a joke. Yeah, but it would have been funnier if you stuck it on JI. just sayin ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Holy crap! check out this control run of the 18z GFS - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 whatever...i wasn't posting that because i thought/think it has a chance to happen - I'm actually refuting the previous characterization of the thing ... I'd like to get in between those buns on the original poster. Not here ..Please John..Not here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Not here ..Please John..Not here I dunno 'bout you, Kev'. Seems like the majority of your humor is gay-sex in nature. Is something bothering you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 BOX has rain border to border in SNE..LOL Don't blame me on this part: THOUGH THERE IS NO MERIT IN GOING WITH EITHER SOLN...THE DECISION OF THE 12/12Z ECMWF IS SIMPLY A HUNCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 What's the deal with control run? Is that the new term du jour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 What's the deal with control run? Is that the new term du jour? Its the new run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 What's the deal with control run? Is that the new term du jour? weatherx and ginxy broke out the ec control run the other day and then somebody posted it yesterday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Calling the JMA solution a "severe noreaster" is a way over-statement. It's a pedestrian coastal winter storm. QPF totals there are under 1.5 inches with mixing issues early... so figure 1.2" worth in snow is 10-14" . It would be stellar for this season. but not severe by any stretch. Wrong map buddy. I have the accuweather 168 and 192 panels which do show a severe nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTROL MODEL THAT JUST CAME OUT HAS A KU FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A JOKE!!! IT PRODUCES A BLIZZARD FOR EVERYONE FROM DC TO BOSTON AS IT BRINGS THE LOW FROM THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY TO THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND BOMBS IT THERE TO A 978MB, THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT ENE FROM THERE ALMOST DUE EAST, KEEPING US IN THE HEAVY DEFORMATION BAND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY!! TOTAL PRECIP IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND 850'S ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM DC TO BOSTON THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA CLOSE BY THAT GETS ABOVE FREEZING AT 850 IS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NJ ALONG THE COAST FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD. I already went and got the bread and milk....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Calling the JMA solution a "severe noreaster" is a way over-statement. It's a pedestrian coastal winter storm. QPF totals there are under 1.5 inches with mixing issues early... so figure 1.2" worth in snow is 10-14" . It would be stellar for this season. but not severe by any stretch. Wrong map buddy. I have the accuweather 168 and 192 panels which do show a severe nor'easter Tip it's the 192 panel that shows the severe nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Yeah, but it would have been funnier if you stuck it on JI. just sayin ' Haha, it was equally funny...you still posted the first JMA images we've seen in probably 3 months. Its ok Tip if someone throws a bun at you. No harm no foul... we are all weenies at heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Must be coming from that impulse in the Gulf then ? That 144 panel is an exiting system - not sure how 24 hours later there could be much of anything already loaded into the MA. whatever.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 The point being ..you're comparing your ****tiness against an overall canvas of ****tiness - there really isn't anything remarkable in your smaller scale; the remarkability is a much bigger issue. That usually provides empathy to one's scenario when one realizes the sea of iniquity is more like a whole cruise ship compared to being the only soul in "any port in the storm" (Winslow Homer). I don't give a rat's weenie about the Sierra Nevada....this is the ne forum and a ne thread. Take that, sit on it and spin. As for the relevant area, I am among the worst and on pace to set a record low mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I don't give a rat's weenie about the Sierra Nevada....this is the ne forum and a ne thread. Take that, sit on it and spin. As for the relevant area, I am among the worst and on pace to set a record low mark. Nice Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This one has loads of potential. Get ready for 8 foot drifts of "potential" next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 whatever...i wasn't posting that because i thought/think it has a chance to happen - I'm actually refuting the previous characterization of the thing ... those buns belong on the original poster. Keep a close vigil on that warning bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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