Logan11 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The consensus now I guess is that the energy coming in on the weekend doesn't phase and just gets sheared and crushed under the "transitory" blocking.... which doesn't hold I guess, but just long enough to wreck another period of "potential". Agreed. We see a couple weak s/w's track through the region this week, with leading WAA and little in the way of CAA on the backside. The cold airmass quickly decays, with no reinforcements. The Friday system breaks this pattern, with a significant trough in it's wake and decent CAA. It's really a nice looking 50/50 low that develops. The problem is giving the Sunday s/w enough room to amplify. It's a nearly classic scenario if the northern s/w can dig south and fully phase with the southern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah no I don't believe that will succeed in going west of us. We'll see. The east based -NAO is retrograding ...yes, albeit while weakening, toward the Greenland. I suppose there is a race there as to whether it will have enough left to suppress the storm track down the EC. There is also possibility that the MJO related stuff I was talking about this morning may rear it's influence in the circulation at some point, too. Also - I am less worried/concerned for antecedent air masses in the 2nd halves of winters, when the starting 850mb line is south of you and any dynamics then are involved at all. I have seen 57 in at 11am in April go to S+ by 6pm that night before. Buuut, if the NAO doesn't back then hell - sure. As a side, as I was trying to convey, the ECM southern streamer and the GFS northern streamer coincidentally falling on the same day could signal that they are respectively missing the opposing stream - if that correct it could mean phasing. At D6 that stochastic is still available to play out here. or not. Probabilities are not 0. Yeah if you have a dynamic system, you can wetbulb to a 32F snow, but you better have n-ne winds along with decent rates. All I mean, is that I think the antecedent airmass is crappy, but we also have a decent CAD signal with a nice ridge into SNE. Higher elevations area would likely be ok. As far as the other ideas, maybe the 00z guidance gets more interesting for the weekend. I know the chances aren't great, but it would be nice to take advantage of that -NAO type deal. I don't have high hopes, but like you said..it's not a zero prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah no I don't believe that will succeed in going west of us. We'll see. The east based -NAO is retrograding ...yes, albeit while weakening, toward the Greenland. I suppose there is a race there as to whether it will have enough left to suppress the storm track down the EC. There is also possibility that the MJO related stuff I was talking about this morning may rear it's influence in the circulation at some point, too. Also - I am less worried/concerned for antecedent air masses in the 2nd halves of winters, when the starting 850mb line is south of you and any dynamics then are involved at all. I have seen 57 in at 11am in April go to S+ by 6pm that night before. Buuut, if the NAO doesn't back then hell - sure. As a side, as I was trying to convey, the ECM southern streamer and the GFS northern streamer coincidentally falling on the same day could signal that they are respectively missing the opposing stream - if that correct it could mean phasing. At D6 that stochastic is still available to play out here. or not. Probabilities are not 0. Typhoon Tip will make at least one 5 paragraph post a day for either two scenarios:Why there is a large storm coming Why we should hang ourselves Bump... lol The fact that the euro has consistently showed a storm is encouraging. I'm still thinking the northern stream digs a lot more than what is modeled. Recent History tends to repeat itself, and that's what happened last storm... EDIT: NICE INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NAM LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Bump... lol The fact that the euro has consistently showed a storm is encouraging. I'm still thinking the northern stream digs a lot more than what is modeled. Recent History tends to repeat itself, and that's what happened last storm... Recent history is that we as a region get bent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Recent history is that we as a region get bent. Over the railing and get taken advantage of like the last couple months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Over the railing and get taken advantage of like the last couple months By Ray's beast of a man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 By Ray's beast of a man. in the shed behind the house at 2012 Winterblows Drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Its the NAM so it really shouldn't be taken seriously at this range, but it has a lot of ridging up in Quebec at 84h...which would be pretty favorable for forcing this underneath SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 OT but the euro appears to be on the verge of an epic fail in ths ongoing cold snap. It's cold but not extraordinary. Most of last week the euro had Siberia descending upon us by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well... the purpose for bringing that up was to offer some perspective that might ease the frustration - if you can't think outside the box at all, ...good luck in life! Most sane people would agree that understanding is the path to acceptance - where realm that does not include frustration If one understands this is all part of a bigger issue worth of study and fascination for its own rite, but then still can't accept it ...that person's got real big problems. Dude, it is a NE thread in a NE forum...your reference was out of context. The "bigger issue" is off topic here, but apparently you can not understand that...I can. I have stated repeatedly that I am no longer frustrated, but this season thus far has been historically futile and this area has seen the greatest negative snowfall anomaly of the region. Fact....as usual, you proceed to go off on some irrelevant tangent in a vain effort to distract folks from the fact that you are off base. I would have thought that my crusade for futility would have tipped most off to the fact that I have "accepted" this, but apparently not....some of us are behind the curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Euro still shows the possibility for the interior. As does most global guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Euro still shows the possibility for the interior. As does most global guidance. I looked at 925mb temps and it's pretty mild even in the far interior. Maybe srn VT and interior nw NH are near 32, but another garbage airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I just wish we could get this system out of the way and make room for something down the road on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Pitchers and catchers report in a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I suppose for the far interior, they should still keep an eye out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I suppose for the far interior, they should still keep an eye out. I'm watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I'm watching. You've had 30 incites since Halloween? That is a serious dead ratter period for GC! 3 inches in December? Al,ost nothing in the first half of February.....awful. GC got 24 in January or is that what fell wherever you were? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 You've had 30 incites since Halloween? That is a serious dead ratter period for GC! 3 inches in December? Al,ost nothing in the first half of February.....awful. GC got 24 in January or is that what fell wherever you were? No, 24" in January here. Feb is now at a whopping 1" with a .25 Saturday and .75" overnight. A steady light snow continues. I think we'll put up some more good numbers between now and the end of April. Not very good but I've had consistent snowcover so at least it's looked like Winter. Nature has a way of balancing things out. I'll be waiting to take advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nature has a way of balancing things out. I'll be waiting to take advantage. lol yeah....this is payback for the great stretch we were in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 No, 24" in January here. Feb is now at a whopping 1" with a .25 Saturday and .75" overnight. A steady light snow continues. I think we'll put up some more good numbers between now and the end of April. Not very good but I've had consistent snowcover so at least it's looked like Winter. Nature has a way of balancing things out. I'll be waiting to take advantage. This is true ... a big snow year in 2010-2011 is being balanced by a sub-par year this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 lol yeah....this is payback for the great stretch we were in. This is true ... a big snow year in 2010-2011 is being balanced by a sub-par year this season. Glass half empty thinking gets you nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 No, 24" in January here. Feb is now at a whopping 1" with a .25 Saturday and .75" overnight. A steady light snow continues. I think we'll put up some more good numbers between now and the end of April. Not very good but I've had consistent snowcover so at least it's looked like Winter. Nature has a way of balancing things out. I'll be waiting to take advantage. Hence this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Euro still shows the possibility for the interior. As does most global guidance. I went to the HPC maps before coming here this morning. Popped my bubble a little bit. I didn't like that Friday morning has the primary at 1004 and the secondary just off the elbow at 1004. That could bring a alot of warm in no? We need the secondary to deepen sooner. Is that Nam Quebec ridging you mentioned showing up on other models? Didn't appear to be on the HPC maps....at least not very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Now that we have made it to Monday..I am starting to have a decent feeling for this one...Ryan and Phil got me a little amped up and Will is starting to chirp.. Scooter will throw flags..but that's ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 With that ridging upnorth..you have to think this is gonna be forced out south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Now that we have made it to Monday..I am starting to have a decent feeling for this one...Ryan and Phil got me a little amped up and Will is starting to chirp.. Scooter will throw flags..but that's ok Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Good luck. When Ryan likes a threat..I pay attn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 When Ryan likes a threat..I pay attn If the euro worked out, you would not see a flake. Just sayin'. The only way you could pull something, is if this were to move south of SNE and bomb. If that were to happen, then yes it would be something. Lets not try to wishcast here. I'm looking at the euro in 3hr increments and it's a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 If the euro worked out, you would not see a flake. Just sayin'. The only way you could pull something, is if this were to move south of SNE and bomb. If that were to happen, then yes it would be something. Lets not try to wishcast here. I'm looking at the euro in 3hr increments and it's a torch. Noone is saying the Euro is snow..All we are saying Ryan,Phil, Will is that we have a shot at snow inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Noone is saying the Euro is snow..All we are saying Ryan,Phil, Will is that we have a shot at snow inland Only if this is further south and develops quicker, but I'm not going to wish something that might not happen. The euro is not pretty with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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