MillzPirate Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 typical euro holding energy back.... not even a weenie statement.. it does it everytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 BTW, the majority of the GFS individual members show an east coast storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 i'm guessing that the euro solution of having an ULL spinning over the 4-corners for 4 days is not going to happen I see in the mos that it shows some cold precip day 7. It also took away our flurries Tomoorow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Euro holds too much back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 echo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 A good two thirds of the GFS ens show a storm in a week. 7 are coastals of differing variety. Long way to go. 6 days ago, about two thirds of the same ens. showed a storm for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 A good two thirds of the GFS ens show a storm in a week. 7 are coastals of differing variety. Long way to go. 6 days ago, about two thirds of the same ens. showed a storm for today. they were pretty close.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 sweet...the ULL on the euro makes it from New Mexico to Oklahoma in 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 they were pretty close.. They were all over the place. A few were rain to snow.. a few snow... one was a transfer storm from OH/KY/WVA area to the NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I see in the mos that it shows some cold precip day 7. It also took away our flurries Tomoorow night this is the good and bad of the euro....the bad it is has no storm because it has an ull spinning in place for 5 days..... the"good" is it still has the insane +PNA, but also has a -NAO......but can we take the run seriously?....i dont know...I dont think it is worth too much after day 5-7, but most runs are probably that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 this is the good and bad of the euro....the bad it is has no storm because it has an ull spinning in place for 5 days..... the"good" is it still has the insane +PNA, but also has a -NAO......but can we take the run seriously?....i dont know...I dont think it is worth too much after day 5-7, but most runs are probably that way it isnt like we have a deep trough and lots of cold air...everthing is still bottled up north..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 sweet...the ULL on the euro makes it from New Mexico to Oklahoma in 5 days I guess the Pineapple Express is now the Pony express Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 They were all over the place. A few were rain to snow.. a few snow... one was a transfer storm from OH/KY/WVA area to the NC coast i wouldnt put any more stock in the ensembles than the op in this range. pattern's getting better is all that really matters for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I don't think you can take much from is except that it doesstill have the pna pattern and it seems to watn to change the atlantic. I think that change is less certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 They were all over the place. A few were rain to snow.. a few snow... one was a transfer storm from OH/KY/WVA area to the NC coast I think the point is they showed a storm, most of them did. Instead we get a national radar that looks like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 i wouldnt put any more stock in the ensembles than the op in this range. pattern's getting better is all that really matters for now. I think that's about all you can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I think that's about all you can say. best winter ever http://yfrog.com/ny61hqysj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 best winter ever http://yfrog.com/ny61hqysj Troll-weenie. The better way to look at the season is that we have a sustained lateautumn-earlyspring regime. Anything frozen is an over-performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Thanks man. I know there are a lot of people on here who want to know the "whys" to the global teleconnection state and pattern. This type of post needs to be supplemented with graphics because a lot of this jargon / technical talk is not as complicated as it first appears to be. Seeing it on every day weather maps playing out is the only way to understand it and reading the papers while taking observations. Just a word of warning...for all of you who don't remember...last year at this time when the AAM state was changing etc. it lead to a significant model forecast degradation during that period (late Jan-early Feb). I suspect this is likely again, so expect, at the very least, wild shifts in timing in the day 2-5 period. Pretty good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 i wouldnt put any more stock in the ensembles than the op in this range. pattern's getting better is all that really matters for now. Uncharacteristically optimistic for you. That has to be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I'm going all in on the late week storm. Im feelin it. Like the model "chaos" and the overall look. Mark these words. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Post from CoastalWx. Not to ride the MJO all the time, but a nice steady progression on the charts. This may be the wave the could "break" the back of this Nina and start the drive to El Nino. I feel like we are already seeing the atmosphere display some signs of this...and not necessarily based on this pattern coming up. I also think the high altitude tropospheric temps in the tropical regions may be cooling due to some of the stratosphere warming over the North Pole. This will help sustain a wave as it moves east. Colder temps aloft mean the ability to sustain convection. Recall last May when we had a big warming..we had a big time MJO wave move east, partly due to high instability over the tropics, thanks to colder temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I'm going all in on the late week storm. Im feelin it. Like the model "chaos" and the overall look. Mark these words. Thanks. Marked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 DT on this afternoon Euro ensembles. His words, not mine. 12z Euro Ensembles does NOT support operational solution of the BIG cutoff low over the Lower/Central Plains. It has some sort of Low trying to move the NC VA coast Feb 6-7 but not a BUG event The 11-15 day Euro Ensembles is bullish for cold and for the FIRST time, the Euro Ensembles are splitting the huge PV north of Alaska into two pieces, and one of those pieces DOES slide into Eastern Canada. It would seem to me that this low must be a strong low to actually move the coast of NC and VA and cold air should not be a problem since it is NOT a bug event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 yeah the ens mean basically washes out the feature into nothingness and shoots it east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 yeah the ens mean basically washes out the feature into nothingness and shoots it east Does it take the coast with it? Will and Scott are saying in the NE forum the ensembles are really trying to build a -NAO this run. I also read on DT's page that LC was really impressed with what they showed this afternoon in regards to cold and storminess in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 yeah the ens mean basically washes out the feature into nothingness and shoots it east And I'd much rather it show that solution than try to send it on a fast track to Motown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Does it take the coast with it? Will and Scott are saying in the NE forum the ensembles are really trying to build a -NAO this run. I also read on DT's page that LC was really impressed with what they showed this afternoon in regards to cold and storminess in the long range. I don't think we used words that strong. All we said, was that they were trying to build more of a -NAO ridge. By that, we mean that the ensembles were poking Greenland with a ridge, from the east. It could disappear on the 00z run, but this run was a bit more bullish...and it seems like the last few runs have tried to hint at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 18Z GFS different again, with an inch of cold rain on Friday for DC, then a clear weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 18Z GFS different again, with an inch of cold rain on Friday for DC, then a clear weekend... ..Wait a sec, what's that at hr 162...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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