February storm threat discussion

[Wonderdog]

This would be nice.

[mitchnick]

I cannot describe the disdain I have for these miller b types

some of our best snows have come with storms hitting KY or WVA, dying, then transferring their energy to a storm off the NC coast or VA Capes (preferably NC)

but the primary has to die and the engery transfer to the coastal fast, or it's too late for us (DCA/BWI) and PHL north and east get hit

that's what Zwyts was suggesting above when he said the primary in the OV needs to die faster and/or coastal strengthen faster (really, both have to occur, just asap)

it's still too early for anyone on the east coast to start spiking the football; considering we have not seen this scenerio play out at all this year since all the previous primaries in the OV have stayed strong and passed to our west/north, it is too early to say how far north the primary comes before dying (which is certainly key for us) and otherwise evolve

one thing for certain is, it is always better the further N & E unless there is a crushing block that pushes the coastal due east or ene, and that's not on any of the models right now and hasn't existed this year (otoh, one could argue the current AO at -4.441 per DonS might constitute a crushing block, but it would have to last and even grow stronger it would seem)

[Deck Pic]

some of our best snows have come with storms hitting KY or WVA, dying, then transferring their energy to a storm off the NC coast or VA Capes (preferably NC)

but the primary has to die and the engery transfer to the coastal fast, or it's too late for us (DCA/BWI) and PHL north and east get hit

that's what Zwyts was suggesting above when he said the primary in the OV needs to die faster and/or coastal strengthen faster (really, both have to occur, just asap)

it's still too early for anyone on the east coast to start spiking the football; considering we have not seen this scenerio play out at all this year since all the previous primaries in the OV have stayed strong and passed to our west/north, it is too early to say how far north the primary comes before dying (which is certainly key for us) and otherwise evolve

one thing for certain is, it is always better the further N & E unless there is a crushing block that pushes the coastal due east or ene, and that's not on any of the models right now and hasn't existed this year (otoh, one could argue the current AO at -4.441 per DonS might constitute a crushing block, but it would have to last and even grow stronger it would seem)

I'm not really feeling a great solution this weekend. But doesn't mean we can't get something frozen.

[PhineasC]

Still WAY too early to be worried about any surface depictions. Let's see if the storm is even around by WED/THU.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not really feeling a great solution this weekend. But doesn't mean we can't get something frozen.

I posted this in the NE subforum

Prob around Feb 10-11 is the most dream looking pattern on the Euro ensembles if you had to pick a couple frames out of the set...it still has the uber amped west ridge with the ridging in Greenland at its peak and the PV in SE Canada beginning to retreat a little allowing for the mean trough to shift west for a larger type event. Pure speculation obviously, but that would probably be the most favorable period for a storm that hits a lot of people on the eats coast and not just a Miller B for ourselves.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

I posted this in the NE subforum

Prob around Feb 10-11 is the most dream looking pattern on the Euro ensembles if you had to pick a couple frames out of the set...it still has the uber amped west ridge with the ridging in Greenland at its peak and the PV in SE Canada beginning to retreat a little allowing for the mean trough to shift west for a larger type event. Pure speculation obviously, but that would probably be the most favorable period for a storm that hits a lot of people on the eats coast and not just a Miller B for ourselves.

last 3 runs of the euro ens runs show a big signal for a gulf- east coast low around the 12th

[ORH_wxman]

last 3 runs of the euro ens runs show a big signal for a gulf- east coast low around the 12th

Feb 10-12 has been a kind period in the past WRT east coast snowstorms...so we have that going for us.

But it definitely looks like that would be the most favorable period for a larger scale storm...obviously given the time frame a lot can and will probably change as we get closer. I think any snow/ice that the M.A. region gets prior to Feb 7-8-ish is probably a nice bonus...but I wouldn't be too worried if next weekend doesn't pan out. Might be one system too early in this pattern for that region.

[mitchnick]

I'm not really feeling a great solution this weekend. But doesn't mean we can't get something frozen.

I'm with ya', but it seems we'll need a fluke this year so even though the towel is in hand and more likely thrown in at some point, I'm keeping open the possibility for a spike!

anyway, this ain't half bad looking, MA speaking

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml

[Chris L]

some of our best snows have come with storms hitting KY or WVA, dying, then transferring their energy to a storm off the NC coast or VA Capes (preferably NC)

but the primary has to die and the engery transfer to the coastal fast, or it's too late for us (DCA/BWI) and PHL north and east get hit

that's what Zwyts was suggesting above when he said the primary in the OV needs to die faster and/or coastal strengthen faster (really, both have to occur, just asap)

it's still too early for anyone on the east coast to start spiking the football; considering we have not seen this scenerio play out at all this year since all the previous primaries in the OV have stayed strong and passed to our west/north, it is too early to say how far north the primary comes before dying (which is certainly key for us) and otherwise evolve

one thing for certain is, it is always better the further N & E unless there is a crushing block that pushes the coastal due east or ene, and that's not on any of the models right now and hasn't existed this year (otoh, one could argue the current AO at -4.441 per DonS might constitute a crushing block, but it would have to last and even grow stronger it would seem)

Mitch, and one of BWI's greatest storm ever, February 9-10, 2010, was indeed a Miller B, which is what exactly what did like you described.

[MillzPirate]

Mitch, and one of BWI's greatest storm ever, February 9-10, 2010, was indeed a Miller B, which is what exactly what did like you described.

I guess I'm used to the NC variety where miller b's are miller screw jobs

[mitchnick]

Mitch, and one of BWI's greatest storm ever, February 9-10, 2010, was indeed a Miller B, which is what exactly what did like you described.

yeah, but the exception to the rule for sure

here's the 5H map for the month of 2/10

http://www.met.sjsu....500/animate.htm

if you let that link run for the entire month, then go back to 2/10/10 and back it up frame by frame, the s/w that was the 2/10 storm seems to have broken off the vortex to the NE of AK, got caught up around the NW side of the 50/50 Low, then swung around and came through VA; at least to these old eyeballs

no, that ain't happening again anytime soon

EDIT: for those interested, if you change the month and year around in that url, you can get whatever month you want; our NE friends may like 1/11

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/archive/GFS_NA/0111/500/animate.htm

[yoda]

Kinda interesting that the 18z GFS at 132 shows a large CAD signal with a 1036 H in Quebec... doubt it will hold but just looks nice for the moment.

Still sorta there at 144

[Ji]

Cad is overrated when there is no precip

[stormtracker]

Gfs is snow to rain. Still plenty of time to work the details

[Ji]

Snow to rain is better than rain to snow

[Deck Pic]

I'd take snow to rain happily.

[Ji]

The ncep site is a utter disaster...slow load times ...missing graphics. When are these morons going to fix this?

[yoda]

I'd take snow to rain happily.

Same. Look like maybe .25 QPF frozen at best... but I will take what I can get

[chris87]

The ncep site is a utter disaster...slow load times ...missing graphics. When are these morons going to fix this?

probably around the same time you realize hitting refresh every 2 seconds to see a 162 hour forecast for the 18z GFS is an utter disaster...j/k

[Deck Pic]

Same. Look like maybe .25 QPF frozen at best... but I will take what I can get

We can always count on you to focus on specifics no matter how far away the event is.

[MillzPirate]

probably around the same time you realize hitting refresh every 2 seconds to see a 162 hour forecast for the 18z GFS is an utter disaster...j/k

Post of the day

[yoda]

We can always count on you to focus on specifics no matter how far away the event is.

If it was like .1 or less, I doubt we would care much

[Deck Pic]

If it was like .1 or less, I doubt we would care much

Hopefully you can give us soundings for any 300hr + events that show up.

[yoda]

Hopefully you can give us soundings for any 300hr + events that show up.

Just tell me when and I shall provide. The 2m temps of course

[Amped]

On the 18z GFS the southeast ridge tries to force the storm to cut, hoever the western ridge is far enough east and there is no Northern stream shortwave to pull it north. Sothe GFS gets confued and eventually redevelopes. NRN PA to SNE get slammed, we get rain.

Also there is environmentally high pressure. The storm is 1004mb when it passes over us and drops to 990 off the SNE coast.

[stormtracker]

[weathervswife]

Why wouldn't the secondary develop on the coast rather than in the Piedmont? and of course this is nothing like the 12Z run.

[BethesdaWX]

For the fun of it...

[Amped]

Why wouldn't the secondary develop on the coast rather than in the Piedmont? and of course this is nothing like the 12Z run.

H5 heights don't fall fast enough along the coast. If SE ridging was weaker, it would form much further east.

[BTRWx]

The 18Z GFS seems to be on 'roids from Feb 5 onward. What is that now at hr 312?