IWC Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Robert, Thanks for all your never ending hard work on this board. I look forward to reading what you are forecasting rather than the local news (mostly because I'm looking further out than the average viewer of local TV) Like powerstroke we are poised and ready for the weather to change and I feel with confidence the word you report are factual spot on for the folks on this board. Thanks again for your work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The water vapor and RUC clearly shows this as a nice developing clipper that maxes out around east Tn/nw NC, east Ky and sw VA, where support and moisture combined are perfectly situated. A developing warm advection precip pattern is occurring in Tn and the Bootheel of Mo, so all systems go for a blossoming of snow pretty quickly that will skim across northern Tenn and reach the mtns to near Boone by 6 to 8 hours from now, then the upslope + synoptic lift goes on for 4 or 5 hours, followed by pure upslope. Here's my call. Also, flurries reaching the ground east of the mountains looks likely this time, except the southern foothills and southwest piedmont from CLT, west. I won't be surprised to see 6" total in some spots of Avery/Watauga/Mitchell by Sunday afternoon. Really hopes this comes to fruition, in the 2"+ zone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Good luck on the clipper guys. The last one on Thursday and Friday down here overperformed as far clippers go. Usually mby only sees a flake or two but with the last system I saw enough flakes to call it light snow or flurries. Nothing major but definitely not the typical clipper down here. Perhaps this one will slightly overperform for you guys as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The water vapor and RUC clearly shows this as a nice developing clipper that maxes out around east Tn/nw NC, east Ky and sw VA, where support and moisture combined are perfectly situated. A developing warm advection precip pattern is occurring in Tn and the Bootheel of Mo, so all systems go for a blossoming of snow pretty quickly that will skim across northern Tenn and reach the mtns to near Boone by 6 to 8 hours from now, then the upslope + synoptic lift goes on for 4 or 5 hours, followed by pure upslope. Here's my call. Also, flurries reaching the ground east of the mountains looks likely this time, except the southern foothills and southwest piedmont from CLT, west. I won't be surprised to see 6" total in some spots of Avery/Watauga/Mitchell by Sunday afternoon. Thanks Robert...I am in Zionville this weekend at about 3800 feet...Hoping to see a good snow. What is considered a good upslope position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Hi guys, new poster here. I've been studying this event for tonight and one thing seems a bit off to me: looking at where the models have the vort max and where they're placing the precip looks a little strange to me. I actually think the GSO-RDU zone would be in the *best* position (in regards to moisture/lift) to see something tonight after looking at it some more. I just think the models are placing the precip too far north of the forcing and I can't figure out why they're doing that. Both the RUC and the NAM have the vort max near the NC/SC border, but all the precip along the NC/VA border. That just doesn't quite match up to me, I think it should be a little further south, although I do realize it is very difficult to pin point exactly where precip is going to develop. Any one else have any thoughts on that? Edit: I guess I should clarify I'm referring to the NC Piedmont in this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Hi guys, new poster here. I've been studying this event for tonight and one thing seems a bit off to me: looking at where the models have the vort max and where they're placing the precip looks a little strange to me. I actually think the GSO-RDU zone would be in the *best* position (in regards to moisture/lift) to see something tonight after looking at it some more. I just think the models are placing the precip too far north of the forcing and I can't figure out why they're doing that. Both the RUC and the NAM have the vort max near the NC/SC border, but all the precip along the NC/VA border. That just doesn't quite match up to me, I think it should be a little further south, although I do realize it is very difficult to pin point exactly where precip is going to develop. Any one else have any thoughts on that? Edit: I guess I should clarify I'm referring to the NC Piedmont in this post. Welcome to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Hi guys, new poster here. I've been studying this event for tonight and one thing seems a bit off to me: looking at where the models have the vort max and where they're placing the precip looks a little strange to me. I actually think the GSO-RDU zone would be in the *best* position (in regards to moisture/lift) to see something tonight after looking at it some more. I just think the models are placing the precip too far north of the forcing and I can't figure out why they're doing that. Both the RUC and the NAM have the vort max near the NC/SC border, but all the precip along the NC/VA border. That just doesn't quite match up to me, I think it should be a little further south, although I do realize it is very difficult to pin point exactly where precip is going to develop. Any one else have any thoughts on that? Edit: I guess I should clarify I'm referring to the NC Piedmont in this post. I've always heard you want to be ~100 miles north of the vort track. No idea how true that is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I've always heard you want to be ~100 miles north of the vort track. No idea how true that is though. That's probably not a bad rule of thumb; basically, you just want to be in the best DPVA, but it seems like the models are overplaying that to the north a bit. I'm probably only talking about 25-35 miles though and I could be wrong, but it'll be interesting to look at the radar returns later tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I've always heard you want to be ~100 miles north of the vort track. No idea how true that is though. DPVA: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/65/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Hi guys, new poster here. I've been studying this event for tonight and one thing seems a bit off to me: looking at where the models have the vort max and where they're placing the precip looks a little strange to me. I actually think the GSO-RDU zone would be in the *best* position (in regards to moisture/lift) to see something tonight after looking at it some more. I just think the models are placing the precip too far north of the forcing and I can't figure out why they're doing that. Both the RUC and the NAM have the vort max near the NC/SC border, but all the precip along the NC/VA border. That just doesn't quite match up to me, I think it should be a little further south, although I do realize it is very difficult to pin point exactly where precip is going to develop. Any one else have any thoughts on that? Edit: I guess I should clarify I'm referring to the NC Piedmont in this post. Welcome to the forum. We are you located? Always nice to have another red-tagger along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Hi guys, new poster here. I've been studying this event for tonight and one thing seems a bit off to me: looking at where the models have the vort max and where they're placing the precip looks a little strange to me. I actually think the GSO-RDU zone would be in the *best* position (in regards to moisture/lift) to see something tonight after looking at it some more. I just think the models are placing the precip too far north of the forcing and I can't figure out why they're doing that. Both the RUC and the NAM have the vort max near the NC/SC border, but all the precip along the NC/VA border. That just doesn't quite match up to me, I think it should be a little further south, although I do realize it is very difficult to pin point exactly where precip is going to develop. Any one else have any thoughts on that? Edit: I guess I should clarify I'm referring to the NC Piedmont in this post. Welcome to the board! Great to see another Met on here. Hope you got some anti depressant meds. Lol Maybe you can change our luck on a better pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 That's probably not a bad rule of thumb; basically, you just want to be in the best DPVA, but it seems like the models are overplaying that to the north a bit. I'm probably only talking about 25-35 miles though and I could be wrong, but it'll be interesting to look at the radar returns later tonight! How much of this has to do with the best moisture through all levels being up along the Va/NC border? Looks to my amateur eyes to be best lift south, best moisture north and with just enough lift north.......north may see better returns of course that's my wishcaste considering I'm near the Va border.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Hi guys, new poster here. I've been studying this event for tonight and one thing seems a bit off to me: looking at where the models have the vort max and where they're placing the precip looks a little strange to me. I actually think the GSO-RDU zone would be in the *best* position (in regards to moisture/lift) to see something tonight after looking at it some more. I just think the models are placing the precip too far north of the forcing and I can't figure out why they're doing that. Both the RUC and the NAM have the vort max near the NC/SC border, but all the precip along the NC/VA border. That just doesn't quite match up to me, I think it should be a little further south, although I do realize it is very difficult to pin point exactly where precip is going to develop. Any one else have any thoughts on that? Edit: I guess I should clarify I'm referring to the NC Piedmont in this post. Welcome aboard! I was thinking that very thing earlier. I've seen a number of these vorts traverse right through Central NC and the best precip usually seems to be along the NC/VA boarder. This one is farther south, as you pointed out, and I was wondering why the precip max still appeared to be along the boarder. We'll see how it shapes up. But either way, it looks to me like the vort is slightly stronger on the 12Z guidance, just by the eyeball test. Anyway, glad you're with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Clouds rolling into Boone...flakes to fly soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Light snow now on the Mitchell Co, NC/Unicoi Co, TN line @ 4800' near the Unaka Mountain/Beauty Spot area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I just can't get my hopes up too much for this, at all. I really want to see flakes falling, but my position is less than ideal for these types of events. If I was more to the east or the west MBY would be better situated. There is just this prevailing moisture shadow from the downsloping in the immediate lee of the mountains. I think further east actually has a better shot at getting flakes than Hickory, Lenoir, Morganton, etc. I really hope that I'm wrong, but I've seen this story too many times. Here's hoping I get a chance to do this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Alan sez Triangle might see a few flurries: http://www.examiner....ossible-tonight Thinking I might stay up for this, as could be one of only a few chances left this winter. But, who knows, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 RUC has really shifted moisture north last couple of runs so ne ga and nw sc out of equation as suspected, but lots of folks in NC will see flakes!! 10pm tonight reflectivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Every once in awhile we get one of these that over performs ( which usually means a dusting to a inch or so ) and for us to get in on it it has to track along the NC/SC border so I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Flakes are now flying on King St http://highcountrywebcams.com/webcameras_KingStreetBoone.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 Light snow now on the Mitchell Co, NC/Unicoi Co, TN line @ 4800' near the Unaka Mountain/Beauty Spot area Nice flurry action here. Surprised that it's a lot earlier than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Nice flurry action here. Surprised that it's a lot earlier than I expected. It should be off and on but mostly on for the next 6 hrs before it really gets cranking!! Enjoy for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 lots of folks in NC will see flakes!! 10pm tonight reflectivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 That's probably not a bad rule of thumb; basically, you just want to be in the best DPVA, but it seems like the models are overplaying that to the north a bit. I'm probably only talking about 25-35 miles though and I could be wrong, but it'll be interesting to look at the radar returns later tonight! Welcome to the board I'm just around 540 from you over in Knightdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 RUC has really shifted moisture north last couple of runs so ne ga and nw sc out of equation as suspected, but lots of folks in NC will see flakes!! 10pm tonight reflectivity Ever changing RUC..8pm tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Ever changing RUC..8pm tonight hmmm..interesting. in one of the threads i posted a sim from one of the hi res models. the image from 8 pm on the ruc sort of matches the hires. i would love to see some flakes this evening (and more than the token sand grain size haha) here is the other image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Latest RUC (20Z) sim radar at hours 5, 6, and 7. It's looking better, but I'm still skeptical: a clipper producing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 FAIL: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY... TONIGHT: A VIGOROUS ALBERTA CLIPPER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WELL-DEFINED SURFACE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIG EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW FROM NEAR KTRI AT 03Z TO KRDU AT 09Z TO JUST EAST OF KMRH BY 12Z. IT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE...ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE RAH CWFA...THAT MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. THESE LOCALES WILL BE LONGEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WNW TO ESE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT AT 19Z STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL KY...AND ACCORDINGLY MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES SUFFICIENTLY SO THAT A FEW FLAKES CAN OVERCOME AN OTHERWISE DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FT. FORECAST PARTIAL THICKNESSES HOVER IN THE SNOW TO INDETERMINATE CATEGORIES...SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS...LIKE MOST NW FLOW CASES...WILL BE A RELATIVE NON-EVENT FOR CENTRAL NC. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I never get any snow with clippers. But I like what you posted above sir.. Latest RUC (20Z) sim radar at hours 5, 6, and 7. It's looking better, but I'm still skeptical: a clipper producing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Boy RNK keeps lowering my chances every updated package, Not nearly as optimistic as others on the board? TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. But they added this: MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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