calculus1 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I never get any snow with clippers. But I like what you posted above sir.. Not completely understanding how sim radar works, but I guess even though there are projected returns, it doesn't necessarily mean it will make it to the ground. Correct? This could be a big virga storm should the lower layers be too dry. Anybody want to chime in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Not completely understanding how sim radar works, but I guess even though there are projected returns, it doesn't necessarily mean it will make it to the ground. Correct? This could be a big virga storm should the lower layers be too dry. Anybody want to chime in on this. i would be surprised to even get that much virga with a clipper even. i am very dubious, but will most likely be watching and waiting for a big bunch of fail anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Boy RNK keeps lowering my chances every updated package, Not nearly as optimistic as others on the board? TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. But they added this: MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. I was also lowered 10% down to 40% chance of snow tonight up to 1inch . Also added 20% chance of snow showers Sunday morning and freezing rain for Monday night. And their crayons say different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 No expert here but, that sim radar looks way over done to me. As was said above maybe some or most of it is virga. It will take a bit to moistin up the atmos. here in Weaverville. GSP has been pretty close with our totals so far this year. They are calling for less than a inch for mby. Weaverville obs: Temp 38.3° DP 23.8° RH 56% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA A weak low pressure system passing to our south will bring a period of snow to the area tonight. Accumulations of 1-3 inches are possible in spots across northwest North Carolina, up into the Mountain Empire of Virginia. Depending on where and how strong the bands of snow are, light accumulations of an inch or less may push slightly further east than currently projected into the NRV region. A few snow showers may also spill over the Blue Ridge later this evening. Be alert for possible icy road conditions if out traveling tonight. Visit http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rnk/emer/emer.php for up to date snowfall forecasts. Like · · Share · 11 minutes ago · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Welcome to the board. Welcome to the forum. We are you located? Always nice to have another red-tagger along. Thanks for the warm welcome everyone. I'm located in Raleigh, NC in the Brier Creek community (thus the user name haha), which is around 1 mile from KRDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 How much of this has to do with the best moisture through all levels being up along the Va/NC border? Looks to my amateur eyes to be best lift south, best moisture north and with just enough lift north.......north may see better returns of course that's my wishcaste considering I'm near the Va border.... Welcome aboard! I was thinking that very thing earlier. I've seen a number of these vorts traverse right through Central NC and the best precip usually seems to be along the NC/VA boarder. This one is farther south, as you pointed out, and I was wondering why the precip max still appeared to be along the boarder. We'll see how it shapes up. But either way, it looks to me like the vort is slightly stronger on the 12Z guidance, just by the eyeball test. Anyway, glad you're with us. I am noticing that some of the latest guidance (21z RUC for instance) is shifting the reflectivities a little further south, so I think my earlier suspicions about GSO to RDU being near the sweet spot may not be too far off...but I do agree it's a case of where the best lift will meet the best moisture, and it sure looks like it's going to be a fine line with such a dry sub cloud layer. With dewpoints in the teens, it is going to be awfully hard for any of us to see more than some very fine, small flakes...just think about how in a good winter storm it takes hours sometimes to moisten up the layer (granted, it isn't super dry, but it's still dry) and with limited moisture, it probably just won't add up to much. Just in case, I've got my new DSLR ready if any snow bursts happen to fall my way though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Well by looking at the radar I am in a virga storm. obs: Temp 36.6° DP 23.7° RH 59% Brutal to see returns with nothing to show for it esp this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Radar currently doesn't match up with the ruc at all. Looks to me like precip will stay much further north than ruc is suggesting. You can see very little southward component to the motion of the precip shield coming out of Kentucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 My guess is 10 flakes tonight, which is alot more than i've seen so far!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Clipper looks to underperform. Precip shield(if one can call it that) looks to be well north of where it was modeled. Seems these types of systems are always further north than projected. No biggie, it has to be really cold for Clippers to produce snow in NE TN to get the fluff factor to make-up for the limited moisture available. This winter beggars can't be choosers. I'll take the flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 Well by looking at the radar I am in a virga storm. obs: Temp 36.6° DP 23.7° RH 59% Brutal to see returns with nothing to show for it esp this winter. Same here Don. By the way the radar looks, most of the returns are sliding north of us. We might be too far south for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I am noticing that some of the latest guidance (21z RUC for instance) is shifting the reflectivities a little further south, so I think my earlier suspicions about GSO to RDU being near the sweet spot may not be too far off...but I do agree it's a case of where the best lift will meet the best moisture, and it sure looks like it's going to be a fine line with such a dry sub cloud layer. With dewpoints in the teens, it is going to be awfully hard for any of us to see more than some very fine, small flakes...just think about how in a good winter storm it takes hours sometimes to moisten up the layer (granted, it isn't super dry, but it's still dry) and with limited moisture, it probably just won't add up to much. Just in case, I've got my new DSLR ready if any snow bursts happen to fall my way though! Well I'm in Winston-Salem tonight so I sure would love to see a flurry or a nice little snow shower. This certainly has my interest piqued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Getting some light snow currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Well I'm in Winston-Salem tonight so I sure would love to see a flurry or a nice little snow shower. This certainly has my interest piqued. You need to check out sugar bares on MLK dr. while you're in W-S, Never been there buts looks like a nice place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Same here Don. By the way the radar looks, most of the returns are sliding north of us. We might be too far south for this one. Joe, I think you will add to your totals with the flow part of this. Not gonna be an epic event but I could see you adding 2" tonight. Pretty crappy by your standards but alot of SE peeps would kill for that about now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 looks like the best returns will be in the red zone soon. Extreme nw NC (Watagua, Ashe) and the strip of northern NC counties. Eastern Ky, south central, soutwest VA and extreme NE tn. My fav. spot for synoptic snow is sw VA mountains next few hours down to around Watauga. The latest RUC looks way too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Cars are white...roads are starting to get covered again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 looks like the best returns will be in the red zone soon. Extreme nw NC (Watagua, Ashe) and the strip of northern NC counties. Eastern Ky, south central, soutwest VA and extreme NE tn. My fav. spot for synoptic snow is sw VA mountains next few hours down to around Watauga. The latest RUC looks way too far south. Looks like a good call Robert as my virga storm has passed & the stars are out here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Please post all discussion and analysis here for the upcoming clipper system this weekend so I don't have to cleverly disguise my IMBY questions in the other threads.Thank You ! I approve of this thread Good luck Joe Hi guys, new poster here. I've been studying this event for tonight and one thing seems a bit off to me: looking at where the models have the vort max and where they're placing the precip looks a little strange to me. I actually think the GSO-RDU zone would be in the *best* position (in regards to moisture/lift) to see something tonight after looking at it some more. I just think the models are placing the precip too far north of the forcing and I can't figure out why they're doing that. Both the RUC and the NAM have the vort max near the NC/SC border, but all the precip along the NC/VA border. That just doesn't quite match up to me, I think it should be a little further south, although I do realize it is very difficult to pin point exactly where precip is going to develop. Any one else have any thoughts on that? Edit: I guess I should clarify I'm referring to the NC Piedmont in this post. Welcome to the SE Forum Cars are white...roads are starting to get covered again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 looks like the best returns will be in the red zone soon. Extreme nw NC (Watagua, Ashe) and the strip of northern NC counties. Eastern Ky, south central, soutwest VA and extreme NE tn. My fav. spot for synoptic snow is sw VA mountains next few hours down to around Watauga. The latest RUC looks way too far south. I'm in the red circle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I'm in the red circle! which is better than being in the red triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 looks like the best returns will be in the red zone soon. Extreme nw NC (Watagua, Ashe) and the strip of northern NC counties. Eastern Ky, south central, soutwest VA and extreme NE tn. My fav. spot for synoptic snow is sw VA mountains next few hours down to around Watauga. The latest RUC looks way too far south. I'm wondering if part of what is in the red circle isn't being enhanced by upslope flow, but as the vort max continues to dive southeast, that then the precip shield fills in just a little further southward. As I said earlier, I'm interested to see if the RUC (which has trended towards my more southward thinking of early) will be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 which is better than being in the red triangle. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Radar does seem to be filling in southward somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I'm wondering if part of what is in the red circle isn't being enhanced by upslope flow, but as the vort max continues to dive southeast, that then the precip shield fills in just a little further southward. As I said earlier, I'm interested to see if the RUC (which has trended towards my more southward thinking of early) will be correct. I saw this mornings run of RUC and then a couple hours ago. So I can't comment too much on it, but it looks like the mornings run was better. The warm advection. Looks like the mid level PVA went further north than indicated and was a little displaced from the 5H vortmax, which explains the dryslotting in east TN to the sw mtns of NC. The moisture is lining up with the best 850 warm advection, which is usually further north than models show in clippers. It almost never fails to be that way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schlontz Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Wondering if anyone in Burke or Caldwell county is getting any flurries...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Radar does seem to be filling in southward somewhat. the precip echoes will probably lurch south soon toward CLT region. But the southern extent will be mostly virga, more echoes reaching the ground are likely further north, imo. But flurries possible anywhere in central NC , just better shot in the border areas and much better shot in souther VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Nothing showing up on radar, but it's still spitting snow. I'm starting to like the radar picture to the north and west a little more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 You need to check out sugar bares on MLK dr. while you're in W-S, Never been there buts looks like a nice place! If I see snow I just might make it rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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