WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Read above. Yeah, BL torches. Even wet-bulb zero is far west. In the October storm, NAM was by far the coldest of the models, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nam looks better than ever. Comes in faster though, gives us the nighttime advantage so we don't have to deal with the sizzling dec sun angle. I think you're being sarcastic but I'm not sure since you're new but we are 2 weeks from the lowest sun angle of the year. No matter what happens surfact temps will most likely be above 32 on thursday except for areas to our west and up a litte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yeah, BL torches. Even wet-bulb zero is far west. In the October storm, NAM was by far the coldest of the models, so... we shouldnt be having BL problems in December when the 850's are cold enough. thats crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 we shouldnt be having BL problems in December when the 850's are cold enough. thats crap it's the physics that give us the precip you start throwing out this part or that part of the model solution and you don't have the qpf it shows p.s. did you forget 07 and 08 already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This subforum really likes to suck me in... That's not excactly true. Any model with a snow solution sucks you in. The subforum is just a place to voice weenieism and let misery have company. I've been pretty quiet with this one. The everything needs to be perfect scenario is getting tiresome. Track looks ok on pretty much all the models. I'm hoping the vort gets powered up as is goes by. That would probably be the only way I-95 gets accum snow. I kinda have a feeling it is but hunches don't mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yeah, BL torches. Even wet-bulb zero is far west. In the October storm, NAM was by far the coldest of the models, so... Surface is warm, but even down to 950/975mb we go below freezing by 9z. I don't think there is any doubt that it is snow falling by the end of the storm on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 we shouldnt be having BL problems in December when the 850's are cold enough. thats crap I'm still on the fence about this storm, but I agree with this post ji, the idea of warm BL's in this situation could be a Nam thing, I want to see the 12z Gfs. The situation is trending in our favor with each run, I like, but I mean the temps up in the mid and upper levels shouldn't torch like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'd say the snow map should be almost perfectly in line with the October event. Those who got 6 inches from that one will do well here. As for my area in arlington, trace or less seems to be the likely scenario, mostly a cold rain event, maybe some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'd say the snow map should be almost perfectly in line with the October event. Those who got 6 inches from that one will do well here. As for my area in arlington, trace or less seems to be the likely scenario, mostly a cold rain event, maybe some flakes. I got quite a bit of snow falling on Oct 29 but i had a hard time sticking...i hope this is resolved in freaking December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The everything needs to be perfect scenario is getting tiresome. That's pretty much every storm. We never have a huge margin for error, 09-10 being the exception. Surface is warm, but even down to 950/975mb we go below freezing by 9z. I don't think there is any doubt that it is snow falling by the end of the storm on this run. Good...I didn't check soundings yet. But that still leaves only a few hours of precip with sufficiently cold profiles, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 this is the sounding imby at 69hrs 1005. 66.E 1.0 0.5 334.4 5.6 1000. 109. 0.5 0.2 337.7 6.0 975. 312. 0.0 0.0 348.8 13.2 950. 520. 0.0 0.0 354.5 13.4 925. 734. -0.8 -0.9 353.8 11.6 900. 952. -1.6 -1.8 357.3 10.1 875. 1176. -2.8 -3.1 356.4 10.0 850. 1406. -3.8 -4.3 350.9 10.1 825. 1641. -3.8 -4.3 336.9 11.3 800. 1884. -3.3 -3.7 320.7 8.6 775. 2135. -4.6 -5.1 318.3 6.5 750. 2392. -5.6 -6.3 284.8 1.9 725. 2659. -4.9 -5.5 208.8 6.7 700. 2934. -5.4 -6.1 217.3 11.4 650. 3517. -5.8 -6.4 223.4 25.4 600. 4139. -10.5 -11.6 227.1 29.9 550. 4805. -12.3 -13.7 213.8 31.0 that is all snow then, another .5" falls by the end of 72 hrs, so I'm having a hard time believing those snow forecasts looking at the soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks like the NAM switches over the DC metro around 2 or 3am on Thursday, but the precip is shut off by 5 or 6am. Enough time for an inch or so. The surface temps at DCA never go below freezing so maybe stuff on the grass and in the western suburbs maybe some accumulation with elevation but most of us probably wouldn't see any accumulation on roads. That said, the models still are bouncing around so nothing is assured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 WxUSAF, Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 that is all snow then, another .5" falls by the end of 72 hrs, so I'm having a hard time believing those snow forecasts looking at the soundings Agreed. But, that layer at 0C means it is probably pretty wet snow. If 0.5" liquid falls after that point, then that's probably a good 3-4" snowfall verbatim at your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 you really think this thing has a chance? Yes.. North and west primarily for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 this reminds me more of 12/5/09 than 10/29/11, at least from what I have seen so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Agreed. But, that layer at 0C means it is probably pretty wet snow. If 0.5" liquid falls after that point, then that's probably a good 3-4" snowfall verbatim at your location. 'With a weakening 500h, I say that much QPF is probably a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 this reminds me more of 12/5/09 than 10/29/11, at least from what I have seen so far 10/29 was a bigger event so probably but the early-season tendencies are there with both etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 So far since this thing started showing up the GFS 0z and 12z runs have been rainers and the 6z and 18z runs have had some snow for a few...let's see how today's 12z goes NAM for JYO from 66-72 appears to have enough cold air coming in with some qpf to at least have some flakes flying in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 this reminds me more of 12/5/09 than 10/29/11, at least from what I have seen so far I was thinking the exact same thing last night when the GFS lost the storm. IIRC, 3 or 4 days before 12/5/09, the GFS had virtually nothing for that Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 'With a weakening 500h, I say that much QPF is probably a stretch. actually Wes, I just realized something under the new maps, even though the new qpf maps with the 850 lines are in 3 hour intervals, they are 6 HOUR QPF TOTALS JUST LIKE THE OLD ONES! I wish they had warned me!!!! anyway, so I was wrong, the amount of qpf that falls AFTER the 69 hr sounding I posted is only around .2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I got quite a bit of snow falling on Oct 29 but i had a hard time sticking...i hope this is resolved in freaking December Ditto. Would be all the better if this happened at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 actually Wes, I just realized something under the new maps, even though the new qpf maps with the 850 lines are in 3 hour intervals, they are 6 HOUR QPF TOTALS JUST LIKE THE OLD ONES! I wish they had warned me!!!! anyway, so I was wrong, the amount of qpf that falls AFTER the 69 hr sounding I posted is only around .2" lol, that's sounds more reasonable. That's an easy mistake to make. I am planning on doing a very short CWG article on the threat for later this afternoon so I probably won't post much more on the threat until the article is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 i saw JB map- 3-6 with pops of 8 for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol, that's sounds more reasonable. That's an easy mistake to make. I am planning on doing a very short CWG article on the threat for later this afternoon so I probably won't post much more on the threat until the article is done. well, the good news is, it switches to snow before 69 hrs. below are the skewts at 66 and 69 hrs. it gets quite a bit colder in only 3 hrs and, verbatim, I would guess the change to snow would be complete somewhere between 67 and 68 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i saw JB map- 3-6 with pops of 8 for us aggressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol, that's sounds more reasonable. That's an easy mistake to make. I am planning on doing a very short CWG article on the threat for later this afternoon so I probably won't post much more on the threat until the article is done. Top secret snow talk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i saw JB map- 3-6 with pops of 8 for us He was right with the Oct 29th storm, but i highy doubt anyone in the metro area will be getting 6 inches. 3 inches would be a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I was thinking the exact same thing last night when the GFS lost the storm. IIRC, 3 or 4 days before 12/5/09, the GFS had virtually nothing for that Sat. 12/5/09 was just as elevation dependent as Oct but climo helped those in lower elevs. IIRC parts of DC that were above 200' saw a little accum while those below(me) got barely a trace. It seemed that the cutoff for the Oct storm was about 400' elev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Top secret snow talk! Actually, it's more about time and to keep everyone guessing so they ll read the post. Anyway, I better start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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