Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i dunno.. 850s crash but they are well northwest to start. would probably take under but maybe just under. I'll take 2-4" in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It is moisture laden...we get pasted between 60 and 66 hours....thermal profiles will be huge...the 850 line is well southeast of everyone by hour 66, but the sfc is still marginal and I am guessing the column will be an issue for most/some....but certainly the implication is we all go to snow at some point in that window Nice. Nighttime hours will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 problem is the euro has had no continuity and if there is any it will go north more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 hr.60 0c from roa. -cho to just west of dc hr 66 0c from wiliamsburg, va to sby dc ~-3C DC+0.50" RIC 1" mostly rain though hr 72 has ric to dc in .0.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i dunno.. 850s crash but they are northwest to start. would probably take under but maybe just under. I'd go 2" at this point with the Euro on board...sorta. Wonder what Wes is thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It is moisture laden...we get pasted between 60 and 66 hours....thermal profiles will be huge...the 850 line is well southeast of everyone by hour 66, but the sfc is still marginal and I am guessing the column will be an issue for most/some....but certainly the implication is we all go to snow at some point in that window basically we get between 0.7" and 0.9" between around 7pm and 3am.....the changeover will happen for most in that window based on this run though it could be earlier for JYO, MRB etc.....the euro maps that most of us get don't give us enough detail to pinpoint exact times and impact and what sticks, etc....I think NW of the cities is certainly better, but based on this run, I could see a few hours of mod/hvy snow even in the cities...probably at 32-34 degrees....but it is at night and sun isnt an issue anyway....maybe 1-3" for the cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'd go 2" at this point with the Euro on board...sorta. Wonder what Wes is thinking i'd take the under. unless the sun doesnt rise. going to take a while to cool the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 inpressive qpf for the entire event. the whole state most va and most of md. 1"+ ..... sw. va to ric to the bay 2" totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'd go 2" at this point with the Euro on board...sorta. Wonder what Wes is thinking the euro is pretty straightforward.....it just depends how much precip we waste on rain/mix and where you reside....it would be a matter of waiting for the changeover....and when it does how heavy is it and how well does it stick.....but even me and you are probably all snow for at least 3-4 hours based on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Regarding Ians post about continuity... perfect setup for some disappointment at 0z beware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 the euro is pretty straightforward.....it just depends how much precip we waste on rain/mix and where you reside....it would be a matter of waiting for the changeover....and when it does how heavy is it and how well does it stick.....but even me and you are probably all snow for at least 3-4 hours based on this run Well I'm on Capitol Hill on the hilly side (that is, the center/central part of the neighborhood); I should be okay, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i'd take the under. unless the sun doesnt rise. going to take a while to cool the surface. euro has the surface 32 line in pa and wv through the heaviest precip and to the nw of the cities as it ends. probably not exactly how it turns out in heavy precip but temps cool aloft a lot quicker than at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 the euro is pretty straightforward.....it just depends how much precip we waste on rain/mix and where you reside....it would be a matter of waiting for the changeover....and when it does how heavy is it and how well does it stick.....but even me and you are probably all snow for at least 3-4 hours based on this run yesterday it completely missed us to the south too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i'd take the under. unless the sun doesnt rise. going to take a while to cool the surface. not really unless it is light....it will stick easily...after dark, favorable sun angle....it is just a matter of waiting for the changeover...once it changes, any mod/hvy snow will stick quickly and easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'd go 2" at this point with the Euro on board...sorta. Wonder what Wes is thinking Wes hadn't seen the euro. My write up said we had potential for snow, probably a minor event but nothing was yet assured. I may have to tweak it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 not really unless it is light....it will stick easily...after dark, favorable sun angle....it is just a matter of waiting for the changeover...once it changes, any mod/hvy snow will stick quickly and easily lol, the sun comment was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 yesterday it completely missed us to the south too 12z?....0z last night didn't miss us at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 euro has the surface 32 line in pa and wv through the heaviest precip and to the nw of the cities as it ends. probably not exactly how it turns out in heavy precip but temps cool aloft a lot quicker than at the surface. The Euro def has a warm surface bias but even taken verbatim concerned trees might be more of a concern than roads especially outside the beltway, taking pepco into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 euro has the surface 32 line in pa and wv through the heaviest precip and to the nw of the cities as it ends. probably not exactly how it turns out in heavy precip but temps cool aloft a lot quicker than at the surface. I don't think that line means much other than the boundary layer is something that needs to be paid attention to and perhaps other parts of the column as well.....Even if that line is in Canada, once it changes over, we are 31-33 degrees probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z?....0z last night didn't miss us at all yes.. see like page 2. the ens mean was north/mild but the op was pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I remain confident DCA will have at least 1 inch of snow prior to December 21st 2011. You may want to get your measuring sticks ready about 3am Thursday December 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't think that line means much other than the boundary layer is something that needs to be paid attention to and perhaps other parts of the column as well.....Even if that line is in Canada, once it changes over, we are 31-33 degrees probably i think almost every model crashes 850s way quicker than the surface so it's something to consider. this is one run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wunderground maps show several inches of snow for just about all of us on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I remain confident DCA will have at least 1 inch of snow prior to December 21st 2011. You may want to get your measuring sticks ready about 3am Thursday December 8th You told us "agony" awaits, 3 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro is close enough for sure. We won't benefit from any radiational cooling but I agree with zwts, 31-33 after the change is pretty likely. I like the strength of the ull on the euro too. There is good potential to get a bonus ull thumping. I can't get rid of the hunch that the ull is going to end up stronger than what is being modeled. I'll find out the asnwer in real time as I don't sleep on wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 You told us "agony" awaits, 3 weeks ago. No worries "agony" still awaits...but enjoy at least 1 inch of snow prior to the December 21st 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 at this point I am pretty much bear hugging whatever the Euro says in 30-45 minutes Still bear hugging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro is interesting. Temperature issues even out this way though. Night time is the right time I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro is close enough for sure. We won't benefit from any radiational cooling but I agree with zwts, 31-33 after the change is pretty likely. I like the strength of the ull on the euro too. There is good potential to get a bonus ull thumping. I can't get rid of the hunch that the ull is going to end up stronger than what is being modeled. I'll find out the asnwer in real time as I don't sleep on wednesday night. Have to be a positive that we are trending in the right direction as the storm nears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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