nutmegfriar Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Four inches with wind and several weakened limbs would spell trouble down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow really? up the road 25 miles here is 3-5 and norwalk 3-7 Would be surprised to get more than a slushy inch or so. Perhaps back country gets 3-5, but down here, south of I-95, probably not. Mostly a cold rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I just ran a skew-t from that for mby. Looks like things could start as snow out here--or have just a smidge of taint at the very start. I assume that would hold true for all of GC and probably elevations in ORH County as well? Maybe less paste more powder equalling less question about power/trees What ID did you use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Thanks, Ginx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow really? up the road 25 miles here is 3-5 and norwalk 3-7 It's a little more than 25 miles from Fairfield to Old Lyme! Maybe 65? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow, the GFS and now the NAM go absolutely apesh*t with winds at 12z Sunday. What's your take on winds for folks away from the center? Just a normal breezy day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Phil has more CAPE at 12z Sunday then he does in the middle of the summer. Yeah ridiculous soundings. the core of the llj is very shallow...not like it needs to mix to 850...the max wind in the lowest 30mb continues to be around 60 knots...with cane force just above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Noyes Sorry, but I'll be pissed with 4" I think his line int he sand for the serious to non serious...the edge of the light blue cutting through SE CT up into RI and MA is dead on...based on all the model guidance up to the 0z NAM. I think the gradient will be much steeper on the left side of that though working upwards fast. To the SE of it Ithink we're all in the same wet boat...and a general coating to 3" should fall. I also like his shadow regions there in the CT valley up into MA where lack of elevation will hurt for a time. I think based on what we have now for data, great forecast. EDIT: Up by Will I think that's going to be too low, I don't see a tremendous difference between SKIMRG and Will in terms of impact but MRG will have better ratios. EDIT: if I were in his shoes this is what I'd run with until the Euro. If the Euro stays the course and wants to really hold the cold air, I'd seriously increase the totals in SE CT, RI, and MA west of Rte 24. But will the euro hold? I think you have to ride it off the cliff, if it's wrong it's wrong. My house, flakes not accumulating to 1.5" Plymouth Airport coating to 2.5" Middleboro center 1-3.5" KTAN: 2-4" (mainly N of them a few miles for the heavier amounts) Sharon/Easton border 2-5" Will -7-14" MRG 12+ The ramp up from the slop line to gold snow will be super steep, I bet we see 3-6" totals bordered by 10-15" totals over juts a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow, the GFS and now the NAM go absolutely apesh*t with winds at 12z Sunday. What's your take on winds for folks away from the center? Just a normal breezy day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It's a little more than 25 miles from Fairfield to Old Lyme! Maybe 65? read, that heavy shawl is just crowding your judgement, he is in Greenwich now...........and i never slice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Good luck guys. Have fun up there! Thanks Justin, should be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Noyes Sorry, but I'll be pissed with 4" Matt Noyes is a good met...but this is wrong for a lot of areas. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Matt Noyes is a good met...but this is wrong for a lot of areas. Sorry. Was good say the same thing...too conservative imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 To those who might not know what I mean...think of it as a combo of warmth and moisture. Those values are really high to have so far north and that close during a snow event. was gonna ask, thanks for the explanation. these are some pretty consistently astonishing model outputs... that comma head looks pretty spectacular. so the NAM holds in < 30 hrs... why do these big events so frequently come down to the wire in computer modeling... hope that the GFS flinches southeast is growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Four inches with wind and several weakened limbs would spell trouble down here. If ya got a sec, watch matt noyes' forecast..his WSI model he uses was SPOT ON last year. It flips Westbrook-Old Lyme at like 4AM til 8AM with temps 32-34..we might pick up 2-3" tops...New Haven west may pick up 4-8 especially north of the merrit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It's a little more than 25 miles from Fairfield to Old Lyme! Maybe 65? If you go by highway mileage, about 50 miles. Exit 70 is at mile marker 79 while the Fairfield exits are in the 20s. We have these little tombstone like things along Route 1 all over town that are engraved with the distance to Fairfield. If I drive east a bit I run into the one that says "Fairfield 30 miles." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Would be surprised to get more than a slushy inch or so. Perhaps back country gets 3-5, but down here, south of I-95, probably not. Mostly a cold rain for us. Do you ever look at data, or just spew climo nonsense? Try looking one time, it might help... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Matt Noyes is a good met...but this is wrong for a lot of areas. Sorry. yeah double that in the berks and your way. Pretty accurate for SE CT, dont you agree? PS I love that model he uses that overlays precip and temps. good depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 BOS def flips to snow as the CCB comes over between 06z and 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Do you ever look at data, or just spew climo nonsense? Try looking one time, it might help... Out your way you can def get 4-8"...just expect it to flip later than you expect...atleast 7pm or later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 What's your take on winds for folks away from the center? Just a normal breezy day? You'll have some wind tomorrow night I think. Maybe 30mph or so? Could be higher gusts since the airmass aloft is cold and the airmass at the surface is cold..but not the arctic cold in the winter. This may result in some better mixing of winds aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 NAM doesn't do much to resolve thermal questions in the CP away from the immediate shoreline. I think I could get anywhere from 1-6 inches given all the possibilities. Likely to be a steep transition between 128 and 495 but it looks like it goes hard even here for awhile early Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 BOS def flips to snow as the CCB comes over between 06z and 09z. It's really close even after 00z on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 What ID did you use? You can use your long/lat. I'm not good at reading these, so I could be off. But I htink the column looks good until the surface (this would be at 18z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I can't get over the NAM simulated radar, it keeps 30 - 40 dbz echoes over W. Ma for 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It's really close even after 00z on the NAM. Is this another situation where Logan is rain/slop and Brookline, Chestnut Hill, Newton could be snow? Seems like 5-7 miles could make a major difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 That last band in eastern MA could still be going for several hours into sunday morning during daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 With those SSTs, he might have the LLJ on his front lawn. And that will be the final time his lawn is mowed this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 BOS def flips to snow as the CCB comes over between 06z and 09z. Has quite a bit of precip after that pt too. Such a tough call for those more borderline zones - could easily bust high thanks to 3 to 5 hr period of insanity. Gut is to lean that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 You can use your long/lat. I'm not good at reading these, so I could be off. But I htink the column looks good until the surface (this would be at 18z). It's not doing anything Go to 21/24/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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