2001kx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 So Far JamieO 12/3 pasnownut 12/5 pawatch 12/8 EasternUsWx 12/14 Eskimo Joe 1/5 i'll go with 12-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 In the absence of an early winter pattern, all I really want out of those first couple opening days of deer season is just to not have a major rainstorm and/or ridiculously warm weather. I remember my first season out in the woods ('98) it was about 70 or so on opening day. Unbelievable, just as I typed this there was an 8pt deer that just walked up our driveway and crossed into the woods...I swear. lOL - Mike, I was just sitting up on my "hill" two days ago and said to the wife - " this is a great spot for deer to cross, yet I've never seen one in all the years we've owned this property (25+). Two seconds later a 7pt came sneaking along like a dog (head down and sniffing - you know for what). The last weekend of bow is better than even the first week of firearm season for seeing deer. Take away the number of hunters on opening morning and the numbers drop drastically until the first Saturday a.m. The other thing you don't want on opening day is heavy snow or high winds. Hvy snow means no vis - high winds are just plain out dangerous to the hunters (widow maker trees) Jan 5th. I'd like that, back from LVN by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Since Dec 5th is taken, i'll take December 9th. Nice Buck Pics.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Since Dec 5th is taken, i'll take December 9th. Nice Buck Pics.. Interesting Sauss - 12/9/92 was the date of a really sloppy snow event. ( I plowed for Conrail back then so remember it well). The end of that winter featured SOTC-I (March 1993). I've seen the CapGang mention that this winter will not be totally brutal but could feature some blockbuster level events. I'm not saying there will be any correlation - just found it interesting. It's also the date of my recently deceased brother's Bday (RIP bro) and it would be appropos for it to be bad weather on that date. Edit - just noticed your avatar looks like the clouds are giving a double flip off - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I was gonna go with 12/9, so I'll 12/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 12/17...most likely will mess up my 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 1/16/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 December is a good month for some storms 2002 on 12-1 and 12-5 we had snow 2003 on 12-6 we had snow 2005 on 12-9 we had snow 2007 on 12-4 we had snow 2008 on 12-19 we had snow 2009 on 12-5 and 12-19 and 12-22 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I'll go with 12/24 into 12/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 12/23. Probably will go the same route as our last several storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 December is a good month for some storms 2002 on 12-1 and 12-5 we had snow 2003 on 12-6 we had snow 2005 on 12-9 we had snow 2007 on 12-4 we had snow 2008 on 12-19 we had snow 2009 on 12-5 and 12-19 and 12-22 snow 2002 and 2003 were epic December snowfall months. To add to that list, 2002 had the ultimate of folklore snowstorms with the X-mas Eve/Day major snowstorm. 2003 additionally had 12/14, which was a widespread 7-10 incher in Central PA. I also remember going into December 2009 there was a lot of negativity about that month torching. The pattern def doesn't look at all ideal currently, and the long range models are really bouncing around with overall ideas attm. That's to be expected of course in the long range realm. However when a major pattern shift is imminent.. the long range models can pick up on it enough for one to realize its coming. We're not anywhere near that attm, but I think there might be signs that the more consistent winterlike pattern we're looking for is going to show up soon. Teleconnections have been starting to come around a bit toward the end of the forecast range with the PNA today being forecast by a vast majority of members to make a break for neutral, while the NAO is forecast to go back to at least neutral after the forecast spike. The AO is all over the place, with a few members today taking it negative at the end of the range. I wouldn't panic about the pattern at this point.. i'd rather see it play out now than a month or so from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Mag Thanks for the pattern update! Always enjoy reading your posts. Here is a picture of the 2002 Christmas storm. I forgot about it, and it was one of my favorite storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 So Far Final guesses due 11/18 by 12 p.m. to be in competition. Also add how much for these selected cities. KPIT, KAOO, KUNV, KHGR, KIPT, KMDT, KPHI. 2001kx 12/1 JamieO 12/3 pasnownut 12/5 MAG5035 12/6 pawatch 12/8 Sauss06 12/9 PotterCountyWXObserver 12/10 EasternUsWx 12/14 KPIT: 2", KAOO: 5", KUNV: 4", KHGR: 6", KIPT: 3", KMDT: 6", KPHI: 4". The Iceman 12/17 PSUHazeltonWx 12/23 KPIT 4.2", KAOO 3.5", KUNV 2.7", KHGR 6.6", KIPT 0.8", KMDT 7.7", KPHI 10.4". MaytownPAWX 12/24 Eskimo Joe 1/5 Wmsptwx 1/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 KPIT 4.2", KAOO 3.5", KUNV 2.7", KHGR 6.6", KIPT 0.8", KMDT 7.7", KPHI 10.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 KPIT 4.2", KAOO 3.5", KUNV 2.7", KHGR 6.6", KIPT 0.8", KMDT 7.7", KPHI 10.4". Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 So Far Final guesses due 11/18 by 12 p.m. to be in competition. Also add how much for these selected cities. KPIT, KAOO, KUNV, KHGR, KIPT, KMDT, KPHI. 2001kx 12/1 JamieO 12/3 pasnownut 12/5 KPIT: 2, KAOO: 3", KUNV: 4", KHGR: 3", KIPT: 3", KMDT: 2", KPHI: 1". MAG5035 12/6 pawatch 12/8 Sauss06 12/9 PotterCountyWXObserver 12/10 EasternUsWx 12/14 KPIT: 2", KAOO: 5", KUNV: 4", KHGR: 6", KIPT: 3", KMDT: 6", KPHI: 4". The Iceman 12/17 PSUHazeltonWx 12/23 KPIT 4.2", KAOO 3.5", KUNV 2.7", KHGR 6.6", KIPT 0.8", KMDT 7.7", KPHI 10.4". MaytownPAWX 12/24 Eskimo Joe 1/5 Wmsptwx 1/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 So Far Final guesses due 11/18 by 12 p.m. to be in competition. Also add how much for these selected cities. KPIT, KAOO, KUNV, KHGR, KIPT, KMDT, KPHI. 2001kx 12/1 JamieO 12/3 KPIT: 4.5" KAOO: 5.4" KUNV: 6.5" KHGR: 3.4", KIPT: 5.7", KMDT: 3.1" KPHI: T - I am going with an interior event with the heaviest being north and west of UNV. Mostly rain for I-95 pasnownut 12/5 MAG5035 12/6 pawatch 12/8 Sauss06 12/9 PotterCountyWXObserver 12/10 EasternUsWx 12/14 KPIT: 2", KAOO: 5", KUNV: 4", KHGR: 6", KIPT: 3", KMDT: 6", KPHI: 4". The Iceman 12/17 PSUHazeltonWx 12/23 KPIT 4.2", KAOO 3.5", KUNV 2.7", KHGR 6.6", KIPT 0.8", KMDT 7.7", KPHI 10.4". MaytownPAWX 12/24 Eskimo Joe 1/5 Wmsptwx 1/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 12/17 - just a WAG at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I'm going with 12/4 - KPIT: 1.5" KAOO: 2.5" KUNV: 3.0" KHGR: 3.0" KIPT: 2.5" KMDT: 2.5" KPHI: <1.0" ------------------------------------------------ Looks like snow will be falling across central PA tomorrow.... too bad it's going to be virga. Pretty nasty dry layer at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 12-8 KPIT: 0" , KAOO:2.0 ", KUNV: 3.5", KHGR: 6.0", KIPT:3.0", KMDT: 6.0", KPHI:8.0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 pasnownut 12/5 KPIT: 2, KAOO: 3", KUNV: 4", KHGR: 3", KIPT: 3", KMDT: 2", KPHI: 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 So Far Final guesses due 11/18 by 12 p.m. to be in competition. Also add how much for these selected cities. KPIT, KAOO, KUNV, KHGR, KIPT, KMDT, KPHI. 2001kx 12/1 JamieO 12/3 pasnownut 12/5 MAG5035 12/6 pawatch 12/8 Sauss06 12/9 KPIT 2.25", KAOO 3", KUNV 4.5", KHGR 6", KMDT 7.5", KPHI- T PotterCountyWXObserver 12/10 EasternUsWx 12/14 KPIT: 2", KAOO: 5", KUNV: 4", KHGR: 6", KIPT: 3", KMDT: 6", KPHI: 4". The Iceman 12/17 PSUHazeltonWx 12/23 KPIT 4.2", KAOO 3.5", KUNV 2.7", KHGR 6.6", KIPT 0.8", KMDT 7.7", KPHI 10.4". MaytownPAWX 12/24 Eskimo Joe 1/5 Wmsptwx 1/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 2001kx 12/1 KPIT: 0.0" KAOO: 1.1" KUNV: 1.8" KHGR: 0.0", KIPT: 1", KMDT: 0.0" KPHI: 0.0 JamieO 12/3 KPIT: 4.5" KAOO: 5.4" KUNV: 6.5" KHGR: 3.4", KIPT: 5.7", KMDT: 3.1" KPHI: T Billabong 12/4 KPIT: 1.5" KAOO: 2.5" KUNV: 3.0" KHGR: 3.0" KIPT: 2.5" KMDT: 2.5" KPHI: <1.0" pasnownut 12/5 KPIT: 2, KAOO: 3", KUNV: 4", KHGR: 3", KIPT: 3", KMDT: 2", KPHI: 1". MAG5035 12/6 KPIT: 4" KAOO: 4" KUNV: 4" KHGR: 2.5", KIPT: 3", KMDT: 3" KPHI: 1" pawatch 12/8 KPIT: 0" , KAOO:2.0 ", KUNV: 3.5", KHGR: 6.0", KIPT:3.0", KMDT: 6.0", KPHI:8.0" Sauss06 12/9 KPIT 2.25", KAOO 3", KUNV 4.5", KHGR 6", KMDT 7.5", KPHI- T PotterCountyWXObserver 12/10 KPIT: 4.0" , KAOO:2.0 ", KUNV: 6.5", KHGR: 2.0", KIPT:9.0", KMDT: 4.0", KPHI:4.0". EasternUsWx 12/14 KPIT: 2", KAOO: 5", KUNV: 4", KHGR: 6", KIPT: 3", KMDT: 6", KPHI: 4". The Iceman 12/17 Kpit 3" kaoo 6" kunv 6.5" khgr 8" kipt 10" kmdt 13" kphl 7" PSUHazeltonWx 12/23 KPIT 4.2", KAOO 3.5", KUNV 2.7", KHGR 6.6", KIPT 0.8", KMDT 7.7", KPHI 10.4". MaytownPAWX 12/24 Eskimo Joe 1/5 Wmsptwx 1/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 KPIT: 0.0" KAOO: 1.1" KUNV: 1.8" KHGR: 0.0", KIPT: 1", KMDT: 0.0" KPHI: 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Just out to mention lake effect does not count as a storm for the guessing. Needs to be an actual low pressure. Clipper, Miller A, Miller B.. etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 12/16 a widespread 4" or more event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Kpit 3" kaoo 6" kunv 6.5" khgr 8" kipt 10" kmdt 13" kphl 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 12-10 KPIT: 4.0" , KAOO:2.0 ", KUNV: 6.5", KHGR: 2.0", KIPT:9.0", KMDT: 4.0", KPHI:4.0". I'm thinking when the pattern changes, it will be a bowling ball type storm. One that comes crashing onshore of California and comes tracking east all the way across country to the east coast. I don't see the SE ridge going away to far and will have enough influence to push the storm slightly in the NE trajectory but the High about the Great Lakes provides enough cold air for places at or above I-80 to win. I would guess PIT and MDT would be borderline in this event, and I don't know if PHI would see increased totals due to a secondary LP formation along the coast?? I'm just guessing but with the PNA still negative I could see this pattern happening once the NAO goes negative. Usually with a -PNA and -NAO you tend to get these bowling ball type LPs instead of cutting straight up towards the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 What do we get if we win? A snowjob from Miss Frosty!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 NWS has a chance of snow showers tomorrow afternoon at MDT. No accumulation but that'd be better than rain. Which we've had all day, of course. Because after all Harrisburg is the new Ketchikan, Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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