dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 So what do we make of the 12z Euro and the 12z GGEM for Saturday? Nothing yet, It's still out in lala land until its inside 108hrs as far as the Euro goes that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The mets all have a little weenie in them (some moreso than others)...it's funny to see it come out..then some try to reel it back in. Everyone loves a good storm. There are times to weenie out and not weenie out. I certainly wouldn't get wrapped up for this weekend right now. Thursday night is definitely more of an interest to me, but even that has question marks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It's time to start reeling in the overly ridiculous posts. Consider this winter storm mode despite being October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Nothing yet, It's still out in lala land until its inside 108hrs as far as the Euro goes that is I'm still rooting for a big, explosive storm. That's the best bet for someone to get some big snows in a CCB. The overrunning stuff will be harder to accumulate outside of the high hills. I bet MRG/Pete can pick up two relatively significant snowfalls in 3 days or so, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The mets all have a little weenie in them (some moreso than others)...it's funny to see it come out..then some try to reel it back in. What about me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 What about me? Yeah you had it during irene..but only snowstorm i ever saw it was when WH had 26 inches and you were out measuring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'm still rooting for a big, explosive storm. That's the best bet for someone to get some big snows in a CCB. The overrunning stuff will be harder to accumulate outside of the high hills. I bet MRG/Pete can pick up two relatively significant snowfalls in 3 days or so, haha. And i am as well, But i won't get all wrapped up this far out on it, Come weds, If it still has it, My interest level will be elevated.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah you had it during irene..but only snowstorm i ever saw it was when WH had 26 inches and you were out measuring It must be kinda tough for actual Mets to weenie out on the board all day as their job becomes hectic with major events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah you had it during irene..but only snowstorm i ever saw it was when WH had 26 inches and you were out measuring You have a short memory. But if you notice the storms I get excited about are the ones that 1) actually happen and 2) people actually remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro ensembles are kind of flat looking for Thursday night as well. Although still would be some snow, but I'm comparing it to what the 00z ensembles showed. It's as if some of the energy is being sacrificed for the second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro ensembles are se of the BM fwiw with that second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 if rina gets involved, we all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro ensembles are kind of flat looking for Thursday night as well. Although still would be some snow, but I'm comparing it to what the 00z ensembles showed. It's as if some of the energy is being sacrificed for the second low. We see this in cold season proper quite frequently.... A double wave in 72 hours worth of time sort of set up transpires in the models, and usually one or the other becomes dominant... In fact, I distinctly recall a few of these where the lead system was all but damped out entirely, but then came bursting back at just 48 hours lead, ...robbing the 2nd more dynamic system such that the better showing of the two turned out to be the lead system. I suspect with model consensus so overwhelming for the 2nd deal that's probably the way to lean for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro ensembles are kind of flat looking for Thursday night as well. Although still would be some snow, but I'm comparing it to what the 00z ensembles showed. It's as if some of the energy is being sacrificed for the second low. Yeah, the flatter first wave allows ridging to build downstream of the second wave, amplifying the whole system. Of course I can say this after the fact, but I was curious whether this would happen when I first saw the coastal low threat showing up in the last two days. A lot of times model guidance jumps the gun on a first system only to have the second one be the real biggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro ensembles are kind of flat looking for Thursday night as well. Although still would be some snow, but I'm comparing it to what the 00z ensembles showed. It's as if some of the energy is being sacrificed for the second low. Much less robust for Thu night than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Right - N wind Not sure what you mean ... With a bombing low in that position and as stated vectors aligned rather anomalous it doesn't matter... The wind down in the CP is N in that Euro depiction, with deformation snow falling to beat the band (synoptically). i'm sure it'll snow in athol or ayer or wherever you live. i'd wager the 60F SST trumps january climo but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 We see this in cold season proper quite frequently.... A double wave in 72 hours worth of time sort of set up transpires in the models, and usually one or the other becomes dominant... In fact, I distinctly recall a few of these where the lead system was all but damped out entirely, but then came bursting back at just 48 hours lead, ...robbing the 2nd more dynamic system such that the better showing of the two turned out to be the lead system. I suspect with model consensus so overwhelming for the 2nd deal that's probably the way to lean for now. Yeah, the flatter first wave allows ridging to build downstream of the second wave, amplifying the whole system. Of course I can say this after the fact, but I was curious whether this would happen when I first saw the coastal low threat showing up in the last two days. A lot of times model guidance jumps the gun on a first system only to have the second one be the real biggy. Yeah he first system is flat and leaves a powderkeg for the second low. The euro ensembles show the op run as one of the farthest nw solutions fwiw. Given the dynamics in place and the gulf stream gun powder lurking...I wouldn't be shocked if something like the euro op were to happen. Not saying it will.....but it would not surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 if rina gets involved, we all rain yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 yes would be interesting to see if it happened - given models have kind of hinted at that interaction taking place in one form or another for days now. timing has been all over the place but it's been there on/off for like a week it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It's time to start reeling in the overly ridiculous posts. Consider this winter storm mode despite being October. sorry i tried to resist but had to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 ukie is a lot like the euro with the second system. edit: maybe a shade SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 i'm sure it'll snow in athol or ayer or wherever you live. i'd wager the 60F SST trumps january climo but who knows. I understand the warm water argument; I'm supplying meteorological reasoning why given that Euro depiction, there is a different interpretation available. Check Dec 2003 ... quasi analog in that intense thermal gradient resulted over SE Mass, with 19F snow machine froth in Winchester Mass, while it was in the 50s on the lower Cape. When you get ageostrophic and rapid intensification working together, the CCB backs anomalously northward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think I'm a lot I off 3-4 miles north of KORH than Kevin in this setup This is so close for our area...especially you. At this point I could get lucky and end up with accumulating snow in both storms. I could also get rain in both, and not even flip to snow in either of them. It's going to be interesting, that's for sure. FWIW it looks like the ORH area would mix/change over at 03z Friday. 1000-850 CT line is just to his se, and 950 0C temp is practically over him. It may be brief as the DS tries to move in from the wsw. I can see it now. I'm trying to stay up at 1am thurs night/fri morning and I fall asleep right around 1am. It flips to snow at 1:15am and its all melted and its clearing by the time I wake up the next morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 You have a short memory. But if you notice the storms I get excited about are the ones that 1) actually happen and 2) people actually remember. You were not very excited for Jan 12 th as you were still reeling from your Boxing day meltdown but as a rule you are very good at sniffing out the big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It's time to start reeling in the overly ridiculous posts. Consider this winter storm mode despite being October. Winter Storm Mode in Oct, where is LL. just awesome. Who flipped that damn switch I want to shake their hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'm liking my nws forecast right now...but keeping expectations in check. I'm close to raising expectations from flurries to a coating, lol. Thursday Night: Rain likely before 1am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 44. Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Saturday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 You were not very excited for Jan 12 th as you were still reeling from your Boxing day meltdown but as a rule you are very good at sniffing out the big ones. lol yes that's true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Winter Storm Mode in Oct, where is LL. just awesome. Who flipped that damn switch I want to shake their hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I understand the warm water argument; I'm supplying meteorological reasoning why given that Euro depiction, there is a different interpretation available. Check Dec 2003 ... quasi analog in that intense thermal gradient resulted over SE Mass, with 19F snow machine froth in Winchester Mass, while it was in the 50s on the lower Cape. When you get ageostrophic and rapid intensification working together, the CCB backs anomalously northward... i hear ya. i just think it's borderline apples and oranges. 12/03 low stalled SE of ACK and that antecedent air mass was FRIGID. i had 6" of snow in that event. LOL. the high on the 5th in ORH was something like 25F...and it was like 32F or something in BOS. and it was December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I can't remember the last time I saw accumulating snow before Halloween. This all seems sudden, but very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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