CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I just think you're looking a bit too deep into this. As of right now the GFS really shouldn't be used for anything. Maybe we just get a slushy dusting..Still will be fun I'm just hoping the Sunday storm is for real Well the NAM doesn't have much for you... being north and east will help I think so I feel better about Ray's area. This just hasn't developed into an exciting storm for most of us in populated SNE. The areas of NW Mass up toward Mt Socks still look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Well the NAM doesn't have much for you... being north and east will help I think so I feel better about Ray's area. This just hasn't developed into an exciting storm for most of us in populated SNE. The areas of NW Mass up toward Mt Socks still look good. Yeah Tubes and MRG are going to get 3-6. No doubt. i just think Ray's proximity to the ocean and elevation is going to hurt him If the Euro's right we'll all be getting amts like that come Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah Tubes and MRG are going to get 3-6. No doubt. i just think Ray's proximity to the ocean and elevation is going to hurt him If the Euro's right we'll all be getting amts like that come Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah Tubes and MRG are going to get 3-6. No doubt. i just think Ray's proximity to the ocean and elevation is going to hurt him If the Euro's right we'll all be getting amts like that come Sunday. Euro is a Saturday afternoon to Saturday night storm. And yeah if your thing is going balls out excited for flurries then I'd keep tabs on Thursday but outside of >1000ft north of ORH I doubt most see anything more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Just looking at some of last night's model data. Round 1 looks to be a classic early season overrunning rain to wet snow scenario for interior SNE. Elevations > 1K could see a 2 to 4 inch snowfall, while 2K gets a 4 to 7 inch snowfall. It looks to be an advisory level event these areas. The valleys look to get some minor accums from this. Flakes may briefly make it to the shoreline before ending. Round 1 is critical as it advects in some mighty cold air for this time of year in its wake and sets up the baroclinic zone right along the coast for event 2. Temperatures in the higher elevations of the Berks and southern Greens may be in the low 20s Friday morning. Euro implies a wind driven blue snow bomb for many with round 2 with a possible warning criteria event for the higher elevations in W MA, S VT, and SW NH. Given that many of the oaks still have leaves on them, power outages could be a significant issue, particularly for higher elevations that are both more exposed to the wind and accumulate more snow. GFS is still to the SE, but it is in the timeframe when it often suppresses things to the SE. If later runs of the GFS continue to show a such a solution, it may be on to something, but right now I don't buy it due to it being an outlier and its known bias. If Euro and Ukie are right, this could be a rapidly deepening storm with strong dynamics and intense UVVs. Lots of warm water out there, setting the stage for an intense baroclinic zone for this thing to work off of. As such, I am favoring a stronger low closer to the coast for this one. Hopefully it's not so strong and close to the coast that many wind up getting rain in SNE, and the snow is confined to CNE and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Can we move to other thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Just looking at some of last night's model data. Round 1 looks to be a classic early season overrunning rain to wet snow scenario for interior SNE. Elevations > 1K could see a 2 to 4 inch snowfall, while 2K gets a 4 to 7 inch snowfall. It looks to be an advisory level event these areas. The valleys look to get some minor accums from this. Flakes may briefly make it to the shoreline before ending. Round 1 is critical as it advects in some mighty cold air for this time of year in its wake and sets up the baroclinic zone right along the coast for event 2. Temperatures in the higher elevations of the Berks and southern Greens may be in the low 20s Friday morning. Euro implies a wind driven blue snow bomb for many with round 2 with a possible warning criteria event for the higher elevations in W MA, S VT, and SW NH. Given that many of the oaks still have leaves on them, power outages could be a significant issue, particularly for higher elevations that are both more exposed to the wind and accumulate more snow. GFS is still to the SE, but it is in the timeframe when it often suppresses things to the SE. If later runs of the GFS continue to show a such a solution, it may be on to something, but right now I don't buy it due to it being an outlier and its known bias. If Euro and Ukie are right, this could be a rapidly deepening storm with strong dynamics and intense UVVs. Lots of warm water out there, setting the stage for an intense baroclinic zone for this thing to work off of. As such, I am favoring a stronger low closer to the coast for this one. Hopefully it's not so strong and close to the coast that many wind up getting rain in SNE, and the snow is confined to CNE and NNE. Thanks for the thoughts Mitch. Sounds good for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Just looking at some of last night's model data. Round 1 looks to be a classic early season overrunning rain to wet snow scenario for interior SNE. Elevations > 1K could see a 2 to 4 inch snowfall, while 2K gets a 4 to 7 inch snowfall. It looks to be an advisory level event these areas. The valleys look to get some minor accums from this. Flakes may briefly make it to the shoreline before ending. Round 1 is critical as it advects in some mighty cold air for this time of year in its wake and sets up the baroclinic zone right along the coast for event 2. Temperatures in the higher elevations of the Berks and southern Greens may be in the low 20s Friday morning. Euro implies a wind driven blue snow bomb for many with round 2 with a possible warning criteria event for the higher elevations in W MA, S VT, and SW NH. Given that many of the oaks still have leaves on them, power outages could be a significant issue, particularly for higher elevations that are both more exposed to the wind and accumulate more snow. GFS is still to the SE, but it is in the timeframe when it often suppresses things to the SE. If later runs of the GFS continue to show a such a solution, it may be on to something, but right now I don't buy it due to it being an outlier and its known bias. If Euro and Ukie are right, this could be a rapidly deepening storm with strong dynamics and intense UVVs. Lots of warm water out there, setting the stage for an intense baroclinic zone for this thing to work off of. As such, I am favoring a stronger low closer to the coast for this one. Hopefully it's not so strong and close to the coast that many wind up getting rain in SNE, and the snow is confined to CNE and NNE. Good summary. I feel the same about the weekend storm, and given the origins of this storm...it's not hard to see a euro type solution. I guess being 5 days out, I don't have a good feel for it. If look at the GFS 500mb progs..they just remain stiff and don't let the trough dig at all. It does look a little too flat..agreed. I also wonder if the euro is too wound up, but it sort of reminds me of 12/26 from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I took a look at the 850mb spaghetti plots on the ensembles, and there are some members and more amped up than the euro op. It would give credence to support a storm that is certainly closer to the euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Can we move to other thread? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/28174-1st-winter-storm-threat-ii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Looks like SREFS generally held serve from 03z, differences are minor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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