weatherMA Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Nam twisterdata map is C-2" north of KTOL with 3-4" in MRG land/hills of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Don't know if it was posted, but the 12z NAM clown map busted out the first 18-20+ area of the season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It might be a fine line between the best moisture closer to the warm air and the part of the atmosphere that can support snow. The fact that the cold bleeds south is probably keeping it more flat, but also...helping aid in cold air advection. What you want to see is that ribbon of QPF on radar that blossoms northeast. This would be a sign of frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yup..there's my Deck Destroyer I've been waiting for the last 5 yrs for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Overall trend is definitely in the direction of suppression for the first wave. We are also in the period when model guidance kind of loses a storm, so that could be it, or we could be swinging more weight to the second system. Onward, to the 00z suite! 18z GFS? I'm expecting a huge bomb on that one with the second storm... Its gonna be the day 5 ultimate weenie run every big storm has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yup..there's my Deck Destroyer I've been waiting for the last 5 yrs for I doubt the 18z NAM gives you much accumulation at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Overall trend is definitely in the direction of suppression for the first wave. We are also in the period when model guidance kind of loses a storm, so that could be it, or we could be swinging more weight to the second system. Onward, to the 00z suite! EC ens have 0.25"+ QPF way up into N VT/NH although it was cut back from 00z. The midpoint of each 6hrly 0.10"-0.25" closed contour appears to run near the MA border into S NH. 00z had 2 6hrly intervals with a large swath of 0.25-0.50" and this run has nothing that heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I doubt the 18z NAM gives you much accumulation at all Yeah that was the tail end, just wanted to show that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I doubt the 18z NAM gives you much accumulation at all Can you post soundings to support your thinking. 850 is definitely cold enough. What's the BL? 35-38F or something like that for most under 1000'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Nam twisterdata map is C-2" north of KTOL with 3-4" in MRG land/hills of ORH. And that's pretty much useless. The Kuchera maps are better, but I don't think I've seen a snow prog map I've liked other than for weenieful laughing purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 EC ens have 0.25"+ QPF way up into N VT/NH although it was cut back from 00z. The midpoint of each 6hrly 0.10"-0.25" closed contour appears to run near the MA border into S NH. 00z had 2 6hrly intervals with a large swath of 0.25-0.50" and this run has nothing that heavy. Accumulation is going to be minimal outside the heavier rates too. So 0.25" might not be anything I'm hoping the first wave comes back (obviously). A lot more confident banking on that one, than the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think it might have been Jerry who mentioned this but ...having this 528dm cold node N of Maine with almost no over-laying blocking at higher latitudes is somewhat reminiscent of the 1993-1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Can you post soundings to support your thinking. 850 is definitely cold enough. What's the BL? 35-38F or something like that for most under 1000'. No but I can post a calendar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 BOX forecast for here... Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 No but I can post a calendar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 No but I can post a calendar Ah -hahahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 No but I can post a calendar Warren G...Regulator! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 No but I can post a calendar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Can you post soundings to support your thinking. 850 is definitely cold enough. What's the BL? 35-38F or something like that for most under 1000'. There's alot more to getting snow than just 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 OT, but does anyway have a link to model archives where you can get any american model run for the past two decades, for example? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah that was the tail end, just wanted to show that feature. Gave me snow. LOL, 78 10/28 00Z 35 33 342 16 0.19 0.00 538 545 -4.4 -19.8 1008 100 SN 000OVC251 2.0 4.1 81 10/28 03Z 33 32 333 12 0.15 0.00 531 540 -5.5 -25.0 1011 100 -SN 000OVC167 1.6 2.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18z NAM is faster than 12z, so that affects things. We want it to be on Thursday night...not in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Bottom line is many of us are going to see snow..whether it sticks or snows not to stick..It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Bottom line is many of us are going to see snow..whether it sticks or snows not to stick..It's coming Neither you or I are seeing snow with this first storm unless we saw significant shifts which get us much colder much faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18z NAM is faster than 12z, so that affects things. We want it to be on Thursday night...not in the afternoon. The flatter the first wave, the faster, and the further south ... = Overall less chance of snow for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 lucky sobs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'm actually pretty confident that Kevin will see snow before the weekend is over, whether from the first wave or the second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The flatter the first wave, the faster, and the further south ... = Overall less chance of snow for the region The nam is still fast in general. The Euro, even though flatter than the 12z NAM is still mostly a nighttime event for SNE, while GFS is mostly day time like 18z NAM...between 00z and 09z on the Euro. But I agree that a little more amped will help this system slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Wow, BOX even put snow in their Fri night forecast for me. Fun times indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Neither you or I are seeing snow with this first storm unless we saw significant shifts which get us much colder much faster. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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