Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It's on the Wunderground site. John, don't tell me you don't know about this site! http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Ha ha... ...yeah, I know about Wunderground but wasn't aware, specifically - thx! Well, in the very least it appears the cold pattern originally discussed by Will and myself a couple weeks ago (or whenever the thread about the 20th-Nov 1 was put out) appears to be arriving as planned. There seems to be some kind of odd -NAO "hybrid" thing going on. The 10D temp anomalies out of CMC have taken on the typical -NAO dipolar distribution, but one more consistent with a latitudinally suppressed negative NAO, and one that is heavily westerly based at that... Yet the geopotential medium of the operational GFS/ECM over the next week to 10 days ... while they carry some vesiges of blocking near 55 N, there is nothing very demonstrative either - nothing that would argue for this kind of cold displacement S. Yet here we are. Originally when I discussed a cold end of the month and into the first week of November I had inferred much of that from some converging teleconnectors, from disparate sources - one being the PNA and the other the NAO. These signals were weak to perhaps moderate at best at the time, but they were occurring in tandem. Since then, although the daily computations from the respective agencies have been deconstructing that appeal, the these current operational guidance trends clearly argue for success, anyway. Fascinating. There may be some transition season "tainting" of signals here, where hypothetically the coherent ones become blurred a bit by "red herring" permutations associated with background enhanced stochastics at this time of year. Meanwhile, if I were to guess just stepping back, the flow over all of N/A and adjacent oceanic regions actually has a bit more of a -AO look to it. 534dm heights setting up over all of Canada and clear down to the border with the U.S., and the best geopotential gradient aligning along 37N (or thereabouts..) are indicators for a suppressed hemipheric westerlies - particularly when they extend longitudinally like this. These "blocky" speghetti currents over southern and SE Canada (50-60N), with wave after wave in the ECM spatially ...pretty much perfect (it would snow in May with this folks!) all leaving those nebular packets in the mid levels up there are really more like "default" blocks, simply because coherency in the flow is farther S. Upon checking the AO, it has been falling since about October 10 ...modeled to be -1SD in about a week. That is a total downward shift of 3SD! That is significant, and although the end ing point is not hugely negative at -1, the differential of 3 is pretty hugely telling. This kind of analysis is what I really meant all along by "subtleties about the teleconnectors" - one cannot really take them at face value because the warm or the cold could be hidden in the interpretation. Throw in fall or spring and yeah... migraines or snow grains, take your pick. Barring an anomaly verifying the way the hopes and dreams of the forum's consensus desire actually taking place ... we should keep in mind that there is a reason for climatologically derived snow odds being on the low side prior to Hallow's Eve. That doens't mean one of these patterns won't come along ever 30 or whatever years, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 lol I posted the same thing basically. I think the Euro is a bit disappointing. yeah. it's a tough call. if your in a borderline area it's not really what you want to see i think. but if you're in a spot that's got some meaningful elevation and latitude, it could be a bit better as some of that mid-level warmth that was present on the NAM, for instance, might not be a problem. might just be more of a rain flipping to nice S/S+ type of deal with just big giant aggregates blanketing everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Look at the vortmax track at 84h compared to the NAM...NAM went sort of insane with it...its probably wrong. I'd lean a little more tepid like the Euro/GFS. If its stronger its sharper and will pooch the folks south and if its weaker its flatter and will pooch the folks north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Look at the vortmax track at 84h compared to the NAM...NAM went sort of insane with it...its probably wrong. I'd lean a little more tepid like the Euro/GFS. You can see the NAM has a very strong PV anomaly that's sharp, stronger, and leads to much stronger cyclogesis to the lee of the Apps. The GFS is much weaker with the PV anomaly and the surface reflection is obviously weaker. For places like Mt. Tolland it will be key to get a stronger low south of LI to provide a stronger ageostrophic flow in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Ha ha... ...yeah, I know about Wunderground but wasn't aware, specifically - thx! Well, in the very least it appears the cold pattern originally discussed by Will and myself a couple weeks ago (or whenever the thread about the 20th-Nov 1 was put out) appears to be arriving as planned. There seems to be some kind of odd -NAO "hybrid" thing going on. The 10D temp anomalies out of CMC have taken on a typically -NAP dipolar distribution, but one more consistent with a latitudinally suppressed negative NAO, and one that is heavily westerly based at that... Yet the geopotential medium of the operational GFS/ECM over the next week to 10 days ... while they carry some vesiges of blocking near 55 N, there is nothing very demonstrative either - nothing that would argue for this kind of cold displacement S. Yet here we are. Originally when I discussed a cold end of the month and into the first week of November I had inferred much of that from some converging teleconnectors, from disparate sources - one being the PNA and the other the NAO. These signals were weak to perhaps moderate at best at the time, but they were occurring in tandem. Since then, although the daily computations from the respective agencies have been deconstructing that appeal, the these current operational guidance trends clearly argue for success, anyway. Fascinating. There may be some transition season "tainting" of signals here, where hypothetically the coherent ones become blurred a bit by "red herring" permutations associated with background enhanced stochastics at this time of year. Meanwhile, if I were to guess just stepping back, the flow over all of N/A and adjacent oceanic regions actually has a bit more of a -AO look to it. 534dm heights setting up over all of Canada and clear down to the border with the U.S., and the best geopotential gradient aligning along 37N (or thereabouts..) are indicators for a suppressed hemipheric westerlies - particularly when they extend longitudinally like this. These "blocky" speghetti currents over southern and SE Canada (50-60N), with wave after wave in the ECM spatially ...pretty much perfect (it would snow in May with this folks!) all leaving those nebular packets in the mid levels up there are really more like "default" blocks, simply because coherency in the flow is farther S. Upon checking the AO, it has been falling since about October 10 ...modeled to be -1SD in about a week. That is a total downward shift of 3SD! That is significant, and although the end ing point is not hugely negative at -1, the differential of 3 is pretty hugely telling. This kind of analysis is what I really meant all along by "subtleties about the teleconnectors" - one cannot really take them at face value because the warm or the cold could be hidden in the interpretation. Throw in fall or spring and yeah... migraines or snow grains, take your pick. Barring an anomaly verifying the way the hopes and dreams of the forum's consensus desire actually taking place ... we should keep in mind that there is a reason for climatologically derived snow odds being on the low side prior to Hallow's Eve. That doens't mean one of these patterns won't come along ever 30 or whatever years, either. deaths everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I thought the euro track wasn't bad for Will on north. It had good vvs along the Pike and cold 850 temps. The next storm looks like a bomb. Maybe too close as can be the case with these types of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If its stronger its sharper and will pooch the folks south and if its weaker its flatter and will pooch the folks north There's an ideal medium in there. But this is October and that's why 6" snow events are so rare. This will likely max out as an advisory event for someone...with perhaps one of the highest mountain tops getting warning snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Storm 2 looks like its coming west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 yeah. it's a tough call. if your in a borderline area it's not really what you want to see i think. but if you're in a spot that's got some meaningful elevation and latitude, it could be a bit better as some of that mid-level warmth that was present on the NAM, for instance, might not be a problem. might just be more of a rain flipping to nice S/S+ type of deal with just big giant aggregates blanketing everything. Yeah for Mt Socks, Nrn ORH County, MRG I don't think it matters a whole lot. For Will and Kevin I think you need a more dynamic/stronger system like the NAM to get accumulation. Besides just chilling the boundary layer you are going to need some decent rates as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I thought the euro track wasn't bad for Will on north. It had good vvs along the Pike and cold 850 temps. The next storm looks like a bomb. Maybe too close as can be the case with these types of systems. yeah agree. i think it holds with the general areas being discussed. i just liked seeing the more wound up solutions as i think it raised the chances for flakes flying in more areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Logan11 through Socks bomb on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 hopefully the second storm cuts way west. i don't want to see snow before halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Wow Litchfield County and the Berskhires get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah for Mt Socks, Nrn ORH County, MRG I don't think it matters a whole lot. For Will and Kevin I think you need a more dynamic/stronger system like the NAM to get accumulation. Besides just chilling the boundary layer you are going to need some decent rates as well. I think I'm a lot better off 3-4 miles north of KORH than Kevin in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 There's an ideal medium in there. But this is October and that's why 6" snow events are so rare. This will likely max out as an advisory event for someone...with perhaps one of the highest mountain tops getting warning snow. Yeah, Its a crap shoot here early on with marginal cold air aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think I'm a lot better off 3-4 miles north of KORH than Kevin in this setup That's about as weenie as it gets right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah for Mt Socks, Nrn ORH County, MRG I don't think it matters a whole lot. For Will and Kevin I think you need a more dynamic/stronger system like the NAM to get accumulation. Besides just chilling the boundary layer you are going to need some decent rates as well. Will might have the latitude though...just far enough north maybe? i don't know exactly where he is located but at least his clients in N ORH county if not down to his area seem like a region to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Logan11 through Socks bomb on the euro. 992mb over the elbow, Then bombs to 984mb east of the cape.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 That's about as weenie as it gets right there Well considering I forecast for an area about 10 miles NE of you, not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Next storm kills Pete and up through NNE. I think that storm has the risk of coming close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Will might have the latitude though...just far enough north maybe? i don't know exactly where he is located but at least his clients in N ORH county if not down to his area seem like a region to watch. Yeah I agree. I think in general areas with some latitude in N MA and adjacent S VT/S NH can make out decently with a weaker low like the GFS/Euro. If you want to start bringing snow down in elevation and to places like Kevin you need something a bit more dynamic more like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 992mb over the elbow, Then bombs to 984mb east of the cape.... Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Next storm kills Pete and up through NNE. I think that storm has the risk of coming close. Yeah this verbatim would be close to a 1 footer from Norfolk CT to MRG while the rest of us get pelted by drops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 what a monster that second storm is on that run. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah this verbatim would be close to a 1 footer from Norfolk CT to MRG while the rest of us get pelted by drops What a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Wow Down to 980mb over SW Nova Scotia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah this verbatim would be close to a 1 footer from Norfolk CT to MRG while the rest of us get pelted by drops we still have time for this to trend more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 What a bomb. Big winds at the coast probably especially given warm SSTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Big winds at the coast probably especially given warm SSTs And then many maybe end as flakes or straight snow. If that was like 40 miles more east, Will would have a heart attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Storm 2 would have a damaging effect to trees left with foliage.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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