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Hurricane Irene - Discussion V


Baroclinic Zone

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I read that they usually take 10% off this for sfc wind...is that true?

usually...they actually just found 94 kt flight level which is the highest in some time. However, the SFMR values are low due to a lack of strong convection mixing down winds just off the deck. Standard flight level reduction is more valid for more deep tropical steady-state or strengthening systems.

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It's definitely pushing that rain shield pretty far inland so you may get a lot. Hey it looks like a Nor'easter now, but maybe they will keep calling it a cane until NY landfall.

FYI, I was doing my stint at Carleton in Ottawa during Gloria. We got a lot of rain from that way inland there.

yeah it does happen,

i actually would have been in ottawa for gloria, but i was a bit on young side.

my first memories of hurricanes come just a bit after that, from gilbert and hugo....both of those storms dumped a lot of rain and wind on ottawa.

what types of rain and wind you expecting with this?

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usually...they actually just found 94 kt flight level which is the highest in some time. However, the SFMR values are low due to a lack of strong convection mixing down winds just off the deck. Standard flight level reduction is more valid for more deep tropical steady-state or strengthening systems.

Thanks.

94kts is pretty incredible, even at FL.

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Irene should be passing over the Cape May buoy within the next hour or so. Winds do not seem to be picking up though, and were actually stronger several hours ago. Pressure is FR. This is beginning to look more extratropical to me.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=44009&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44009

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Everyone's catching sleep. The real impact stuff doesn't come in until tomorrow morning.

we got crushed . ric gusted to 71----- 75-100 trees down in my neighborhood, roads are blocked trees are on houses and cars, 380,000 without power out of 491,000 total

customers here. local mets busted thier azz --dt pretty much nailed it here it's a mess

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Looked like some BOS mets are poo-pooing this. Hope they understand the wind fields are expansive here..I mean look what Nick highlighted. I just remember what Gloria did, so that is on my mind. 100mph gust in Chatham.

Yeah Tim Kelley NECN was kinda bland about this for eastern Mass.

Some thoughts / questions:

1) Very impressive band swung through in central NJ / southeast PA spawning 3-5 doppler tornadoes (1 with damage reports) and 2-5 inches in about 2 hours... well north and slightly west of center.

I hope this is not energy dissipating in an unraveling system become extra-tropical.

2) Something resembling an eye seems to be holding up off MD. By lots of dry air drawn underneath into southern quadrants (and actually wrapping into southern NJ).

Something to watch over next few hours.

Strong jet overhead likely helping maintain good outflow, and may keep this Cat 1 to NYC/LI landfall.

3) Hurricane Hunter reads found 60 kt winds > 100 miles from center (and did not continue measuring thereafter). Map posted in general thread.

Again, we can't think of this as a typical TC in which we'd have minimal effects if it's so far west. Tomorrow will be wild.

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we got crushed . ric gusted to 71----- 75-100 trees down in my neighborhood, roads are blocked trees are on houses and cars, 380,000 without power out of 491,000 total

customers here. local mets busted thier azz --dt pretty much nailed it here it's a mess

Holy crap. That's serious stuff. Glad you're safe!

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Well ...people live at 750 to 1000 feet in parts of Manhattan. :)

usually...they actually just found 94 kt flight level which is the highest in some time. However, the SFMR values are low due to a lack of strong convection mixing down winds just off the deck. Standard flight level reduction is more valid for more deep tropical steady-state or strengthening systems.

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Yeah Tim Kelley NECN was kinda bland about this for eastern Mass.

Some thoughts / questions:

1) Very impressive band swung through in central NJ / southeast PA spawning 3-5 doppler tornadoes (1 with damage reports) and 2-5 inches in about 2 hours... well north and slightly west of center.

I hope this is not energy dissipating in an unraveling system become extra-tropical.

2) Something resembling an eye seems to be holding up off MD. By lots of dry air drawn underneath into southern quadrants (and actually wrapping into southern NJ).

Something to watch over next few hours.

Strong jet overhead likely helping maintain good outflow, and may keep this Cat 1 to NYC/LI landfall.

3) Hurricane Hunter reads found 60 kt winds > 100 miles from center (and did not continue measuring thereafter). Map posted in general thread.

Again, we can't think of this as a typical TC in which we'd have minimal effects if it's so far west. Tomorrow will be wild.

Great post and I agree. This is not your average tropical cyclone. I actually kind of like where I am for this one...maybe about 50-100 miles E of the center depending on wherever it decides to pass.

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I was 19 ...during Gloria....

Expecting about 6 t0 10 inches here.... Keep in mind we have had 7 inches in the last 14 days...

yeah it does happen,

i actually would have been in ottawa for gloria, but i was a bit on young side.

my first memories of hurricanes come just a bit after that, from gilbert and hugo....both of those storms dumped a lot of rain and wind on ottawa.

what types of rain and wind you expecting with this?

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we got crushed . ric gusted to 71----- 75-100 trees down in my neighborhood, roads are blocked trees are on houses and cars, 380,000 without power out of 491,000 total

customers here. local mets busted thier azz --dt pretty much nailed it here it's a mess

Wow, that's awesome. Take some pics...maybe photoshop Kevin or Wiz on there.

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Looking at satellite, I wont be surprised if we try and peak some sun on the Cape tomorrow afternoon, lol. That might be pretty nutty for the winds.

I think eastern areas may rock from that. We get a nice messenger dryslot with maybe an ocnl shwr or squall. That pseudo cold front coming through may bring a line of shwrs with it. Could be fun if that happens.

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