ORH_wxman Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Was that a surface wind and do you think we're still going to see impressive winds here 50 knots plus? Not trying to pin you, haven't been looking tonight was at the concert. Close to the center it's formidable but nowhere near the 115 of course.... I'm expecting hurricane force gusts on the Cape tomorrow. I'm not sure how the sustained will be...I suppose that all depends on the mixing for getting it long enough to be considered sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I'll be shocked if I gust to hurricane force. If I hit 60 I'll be pleasantly surprised. I'm predicting 57 for Newport's official reporting station in Middletown UUU....which is a few miles north of downtown Newport. You'll hit 60, no doubt. Even DCA is gusting to 58mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I think many will see strong gusts, but sustained winds won't be terribly strong except perhaps near the south coast. Any sun will really boost those winds, and it's possible we may see a spike from the WSW tomorrow evening as the center passes north and pressure rises commence. Of course it could bust, but it looks really interesting for many tomorrow. I'm sure people may be scratching there heads getting those winds with the sun coming out..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Bueller...? Bueller...? I'm being actively or passively ignored here, or people are too tired lol Another question: It seems a key determinant of winds we experience in Eastern Mass Sunday will be how well we mix down. As noted by multiple posters before, another odd feature of this hurricane has been unsatisfactory mixing, with surface winds disappointingly low compared to what we'd expect with winds aloft. What about farther east where we won't have as much convection for mixing? What are determinants of mixing that we should consider tomorrow in Eastern Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Last VDM: 000URNT12 KNHC 280514VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011A. 28/04:43:40ZB. 37 deg 50 min N 075 deg 06 min WC. 700 mb 2702 mD. 58 ktE. 056 deg 6 nmF. 146 deg 82 ktG. 054 deg 95 nmH. 958 mbI. 8 C / 3047 mJ. 14 C / 3051 mK. 13 C / NAL. NAM. NAN. 1345 / 7O. 0.02 / 1 nmP. AF304 3409A IRENE OB 27MAX FL WIND 94 KT E QUAD 03:57:40Z; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 You'll hit 60, no doubt. Even DCA is gusting to 58mph. They'll be some 75-80 gusts tomorrow for some..Cape, and I think some inland spots too.. especially in any convective shwr or if the sun tries to come out. Southern CT and RI also will probably get them too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 It'll be close, but for YBY I'll go just shy...near you though it will probably break it. E MA actually gets into a pretty decent LLJ tomorrow I agree....par for the course...but 50mph will seem like Camile, IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I think many will see strong gusts, but sustained winds won't be terribly strong except perhaps near the south coast. Any sun will really boost those winds, and it's possible we may see a spike from the WSW tomorrow evening as the center passes north and pressure rises commence. Of course it could bust, but it looks really interesting for many tomorrow. I'm sure people may be scratching there heads getting those winds with the sun coming out..lol. I definitely think strongest winds won't come until later tomorrow afternoon, once the storm moves inland and winds shift to the W/WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I think many will see strong gusts, but sustained winds won't be terribly strong except perhaps near the south coast. Any sun will really boost those winds, and it's possible we may see a spike from the WSW tomorrow evening as the center passes north and pressure rises commence. Of course it could bust, but it looks really interesting for many tomorrow. I'm sure people may be scratching there heads getting those winds with the sun coming out..lol. Scott, as of the 11:37pm update BOX has not backed off their wind forecast for the east slope. Think it's realistic? I keep hoping to see them bring them down a bit. Hazardous Weather Outlook Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog. Low around 65. Breezy, with a east wind 7 to 10 mph increasing to between 19 and 22 mph. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Sunday: Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog. High near 73. East wind 45 to 55 mph increasing to between 40 and 60 mph. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible. Sunday Night: Showers likely, mainly before 1am. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 52. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 28 mph decreasing to between 11 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Monday: Sunny, with a high near 72. West wind between 8 and 14 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Pretty good winds already for Quonochontaug..... Gusted up to 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Bueller...? Bueller...? I'm being actively or passively ignored here, or people are too tired lol Another question: It seems a key determinant of winds we experience in Eastern Mass Sunday will be how well we mix down. As noted by multiple posters before, another odd feature of this hurricane has been unsatisfactory mixing, with surface winds disappointingly low compared to what we'd expect with winds aloft. What about farther east where we won't have as much convection for mixing? What are determinants of mixing that we should consider tomorrow in Eastern Mass? The wind field tomorrow will be quite different over E MA than near the core of the system earlier today. Its being synoptically enhanced. We have 65-70 knots just off the deck, which is much lower to the sfc than was down in NC...check out the HSE soundings from earlier and you'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I agree....par for the course...but 50mph will seem like Camile, IMBY. Well 50 on your Davis may mean 60 at tree top level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Scott, as of the 11:37pm update BOX has not backed off their wind forecast for the east slope. Think it's realistic? I keep hoping to see them bring them down a bit. Hazardous Weather Outlook Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog. Low around 65. Breezy, with a east wind 7 to 10 mph increasing to between 19 and 22 mph. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Sunday: Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog. High near 73. East wind 45 to 55 mph increasing to between 40 and 60 mph. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible. Sunday Night: Showers likely, mainly before 1am. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 52. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 28 mph decreasing to between 11 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Monday: Sunny, with a high near 72. West wind between 8 and 14 mph. I haven't looked too hard in your area. Those seem high, but again..I didn't look hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Well 50 on your Davis may mean 60 at tree top level. Since I'm 50' tall...cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 The wind field tomorrow will be quite different over E MA than near the core of the system earlier today. Its being synoptically enhanced. We have 65-70 knots just off the deck, which is much lower to the sfc than was down in NC...check out the HSE soundings from earlier and you'll see. thanks will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Since I'm 50' tall...cool. Nobody gets those winds even on top of a roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Goodnight guys, alarm set for 8am. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I haven't looked too hard in your area. Those seem high, but again..I didn't look hard. There seems to be some agreement about this, Steve Caporizzo (wx4cast's comrade) went with 70-90, he's a conservative guy. Worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Some if the bands we drove through on the Pike earlier tonight were impressive...down to 25-30mph driving speed. Tomorrow should be a very nice wind show for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Goodnight guys, alarm set for 8am. Good luck Milk and cookies kicking in Chris? Don't forget your stuffed animals.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 a teaser for tomorrow in SNE: impressive video of power / lights going out in multiple buildings in Atlantic City: http://www.pressofat...1cc4c002e0.html lights go out at 36 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I wonder if ern areas see stronger winds than near the center of landfall down by sw CT. It's quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Wow dry air entrainment really kicking the east side's tail. Rain fall almost over for eastern NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Since I'm 50' tall...cool. I guess what I mean is, if they made an ASOS at your house and cut every tree down, you would have stronger winds. Kevin can get strong winds on his Davis because he is on a hill and winds can easily mix down and make it to his Davis. You have tons of trees which will block some of the wind, but that doesn't mean your area didn't see 60mph winds..just that your Davis may not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I wonder if ern areas see stronger winds than near the center of landfall down by sw CT. It's quite possible. I'll inexplicably pull a peak gust of 40 mph....then be hanged by the rest of the town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Milk and cookies kicking in Chris? Don't forget your stuffed animals.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Wow dry air entrainment really kicking the east side's tail. Rain fall almost over for eastern NE? These things barely have rain on the east side of it. I barely had a drop from Gloria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Wow dry air entrainment really kicking the east side's tail. Rain fall almost over for eastern NE? Welcome to Friday's epiphany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I wonder if ern areas see stronger winds than near the center of landfall down by sw CT. It's quite possible. Are you still on the left coast? Will you be joining the sleepless Dads club in May? only 9 months away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 These things barely have rain on the east side of it. I barely had a drop from Gloria. Wasn't alive for Gloria. But that is really amazing when you think about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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