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Hurricane Irene - Discussion V


Baroclinic Zone

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I tried that about an hour ago. Fail :(

I'll try again in a bit.

So tired but at the same time just don't think I can sleep. Skywarn activates at 4:00 AM too so I should try to get at least 2 hours of sleep then just do the coffee route if needed. But once the storm impacts I'm sure adrenaline will kick in!

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Apologies for the DT-esque drawing.

A) huge band that brought multiple tornadoes and 2-5 inches of rain in 2-3 hours to central NJ / southeast PA and now pushing into NYC

B ) an eye? TWC calls it that and seems to be persisting... this is some of the clearest I've seen it

C) lotta dry air wrapping around

Interestingly, lotta of the strongest airs aloft are occurring to the south and eastern quadrants where rainfall is not that intense.

Questions for the Pro's or anyone else with thoughts:

Any other analysis of this satellite image?

Are we seeing transition to extratropical system? I'm concerned that the huge band (A) was energy dissipating from center, and that the dry air pulled around © is really going to interfere with maintaining strength. On the other hand, we do have what seems to be a steady eye (B ) we are over water, and strong jet is over head.

Thanks!

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From Matt Noyes:

Hurricane force wind located 115mi east of #Irene center very important for NewEng - evidence of widespread, regionwide damage likely

Its not surprising with what the models have been doing to the low level wind field out to the east.

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Its not surprising with what the models have been doing to the low level wind field out to the east.

Yeah the wind damage should be pretty significant from this, the grounds are just completely soaked. I cringe at what 50-70 mph winds will do with gusts potentially higher than that in spots. Ugly day coming up.

Time for some sleep!

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Andy's chief Steve C.on channel 10 had 70-90 gusts in Pete's area... That's straight line of course.

It's going to get ugly fast. We've had so much rain in the last week trees will be felled easily. The good news is we'll finally get rid of the hanging widowmakers from the great ice storm.

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Certainly along the shoreline its possible/likely and perhaps further inland if everything mixes just right.

Camped out my friends house along Duxbury Beach, http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ll=42.005986,-70.618586&spn=0.001118,0.002411&t=h&z=19&vpsrc=6 (House with dark roof). Hoping for some good stuff tomorrow, try and get some good video and pics for you guys.

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Its not surprising with what the models have been doing to the low level wind field out to the east.

Was that a surface wind and do you think we're still going to see impressive winds here 50 knots plus? Not trying to pin you, haven't been looking tonight was at the concert. Close to the center it's formidable but nowhere near the 115 of course....

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I'll be shocked if I gust to hurricane force. If I hit 60 I'll be pleasantly surprised. I'm predicting 57 for Newport's official reporting station in Middletown UUU....which is a few miles north of downtown Newport.

Well you'll get dryslotted which sounds about right for Newport.

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