Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II

[SnowMan]

Depends on length and duration of Easterly fetch but absolutely, just gave BOS as an example of tide height and timing.

It depends on the track...if the storm tracks up near the Cape, then BOS would be more prone to surge because of east winds...if it tracks well west into CT, then much less impact in BOS harbor but overall southerly winds might be stronger.

Ok thanks.

[Ginx snewx]

What is the chart for s coastal points? That would be insane but probably out of synch? Sorry about TB's mom. Always tough no matter how advanced in years.

Around 8 pm ish, so incoming or near high, 8 pm Sun night near LI is probably worst case for a minimal Cat 1 anyway, lot depends on duration of fetch with the less intense ones, plus prior seas pulsing North as those famous high rollers.

[HarveyLeonardFan]

*IF* Irene threads the needle, would we expect a Bob/Gloria scenario, or something much more historic? I know it's days away, and I completely get what's going on in terms of difficulty of forecasting any TS. But Bob and Gloria both came ashore here and were major weather systems and very disruptive in general terms...where could Irene fit in?

With the slow forward speed the Bob scenario is most likely out of the question. Best case scenario we see a wetter, Gloria scenario with a more robust surge. But even that is probably pushing it.

[NECT]

Based on forecast, I think you're right on the money regarding comparisons to Boob, Gloria

Well, if you were in the right place (or wrong place) Bob and Gloria either were windy rain storms, or windy rain storms that cut your power for a long time and caused some moderate damage. Just wondering if there is realistic expectations that Irene could be worse.

OT, boobs are good.

[Ginx snewx]

I posted the tidal heights for Providence earlier in this thread. But with astronomical high tide occurring this weekend even a fairly minimal storm surge would result in flooding.

Unless it is at low, which is super low on the other side of things, then basic NBD.

[40/70 Benchmark]

With the slow forward speed the Bob scenario is most likely out of the question. Best case scenario we see a wetter, Gloria scenario with a more robust surge. But even that is probably pushing it.

I'd rather the Gloria scenario....Bob was stronger, but it was east of me, so it sucked azz.

[powderfreak]

I would love to be on Block Island for this, plenty of high ground, open spaces for wind, and incredible beaches

Not to mention some fantastic watering holes.....hurricane heaven

If this pans out, I can't imagine what being on one of the Islands would be like... thinking of joining a friend for a visit to his father's house next to the ocean in Sandwich just over the bridge on CC. A little shift east in the NHC track and solid intensity would be just fine. Although Sandwich is on the north coast of the cape, I'd imagine wind would still be ok but surge would be much less than places on the south and eastern arm. Some brews and a tropical storm would make up for a boring past couple of months weather-wise.

[ChrisM]

With the slow forward speed the Bob scenario is most likely out of the question. Best case scenario we see a wetter, Gloria scenario with a more robust surge. But even that is probably pushing it.

yeah but he said if it "threads the needle", I think he's saying if everything comes together "perfectly" including a faster northward progression will it be that bad, no?

[SnowMan]

next model runs?

[NECT]

With the slow forward speed the Bob scenario is most likely out of the question. Best case scenario we see a wetter, Gloria scenario with a more robust surge. But even that is probably pushing it.

I dunno - particularly for your location...I'd be sweating it of I were in Newport. I'm wondering about a more general SNE impact...you coastal folks I expect will look at Irene much differently than those of us further W/N.

[Typhoon Tip]

A gang, how goes it... Been hanging out in the main forum Irene threads - tough crowd. Was laid into by a moderator that clearly doesn't care for what I've had to offer.

My biggest concern here is that this system is availing, timing wise, of the warm SST shelf waters of the year, and an avoidance of interaction with land down near SC/NC would be problematic. Typically, we get these up here in September, post a NW flow event or two that has churned the thermocline on the seasonal downside. This is a bit ahead of the climo model however. I have analyzed the SSTs and there is really only approximately 90 nautical miles between marginal SSTs and LI. Even any unusually slow moving (for latitudes above the Del Marva) 20kt system would really only be over 74-79F waters for 4 hours and change. Not sure given the modeled size and depth of the cyclone whether that will be enough to really take the edge of this thing.

Don't want to be alarming either, but need answers for that.

[mattmfm]

Unless it is at low, which is super low on the other side of things, then basic NBD.

Sure, but with a slower than climo forward speed may very well make it through a full tide cycle of pilling water. Anyway, still think it's probably a bit too soon to even be discussing, but worth the mention at least.

[Wonkis]

I posted the tidal heights for Providence earlier in this thread. But with astronomical high tide occurring this weekend even a fairly minimal storm surge would result in flooding.

Possibly another test for the Fox Point Hurricane Barrier.

[MarkO]

I'd rather the Gloria scenario....Bob was stronger, but it was east of me, so it sucked azz.

I think track more like Bob but I'll travel this time to the right of it. Conditions were night/day for us compared to the Cape

[40/70 Benchmark]

A gang, how goes it... Been hanging out in the main forum Irene threads - tough crowd. Was laid into by a moderator that clearly doesn't care for what I've had to offer.

My biggest concern here is that this system is availing, timing wise, of the warm SST shelf waters of the year, and an avoidance of interaction with land down near SC/NC would be problematic. Typically, we get these up here in September, post a NW flow event or two that has churned the thermocline on the seasonal downside. This is a bit ahead of the climo model however. I have analyzed the SSTs and there is really only approximately 90 nautical miles between marginal SSTs and LI. Even any unusually slow moving (for latitudes above the Del Marva) 20kt system would really only be over 74-79F waters for 4 hours and change. Not sure given the modeled size and depth of the cyclone whether that will be enough to really take the edge of this thing.

Don't want to be alarming either, but need answers for that.

Gonna be fun to watch....I'm all set with the main thread, at this point....seems to be the conscensus sentiment in here.

[ChrisM]

A gang, how goes it... Been hanging out in the main forum Irene threads - tough crowd. Was laid into by a moderator that clearly doesn't care for what I've had to offer.

My biggest concern here is that this system is availing, timing wise, of the warm SST shelf waters of the year, and an avoidance of interaction with land down near SC/NC would be problematic. Typically, we get these up here in September, post a NW flow event or two that has churned the thermocline on the seasonal downside. This is a bit ahead of the climo model however. I have analyzed the SSTs and there is really only approximately 90 nautical miles between marginal SSTs and LI. Even any unusually slow moving (for latitudes above the Del Marva) 20kt system would really only be over 74-79F waters for 4 hours and change. Not sure given the modeled size and depth of the cyclone whether that will be enough to really take the edge of this thing.

Don't want to be alarming either, but need answers for that.

are you saying that the storm could remain stronger regardless of forward speed? Could we have a slow, 10" rain producing cat 1 here?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think track more like Bob but I'll travel this time to the right of it. Conditions were night/day for us compared to the Cape

Yea, if we're lucky.

[StormSurge]

When do we get worried that it's trending too far west? Or is that not a concern with the thinking they tend to move east eventually.

[Chrisrotary12]

A gang, how goes it... Been hanging out in the main forum Irene threads - tough crowd. Was laid into by a moderator that clearly doesn't care for what I've had to offer.

My biggest concern here is that this system is availing, timing wise, of the warm SST shelf waters of the year, and an avoidance of interaction with land down near SC/NC would be problematic. Typically, we get these up here in September, post a NW flow event or two that has churned the thermocline on the seasonal downside. This is a bit ahead of the climo model however. I have analyzed the SSTs and there is really only approximately 90 nautical miles between marginal SSTs and LI. Even any unusually slow moving (for latitudes above the Del Marva) 20kt system would really only be over 74-79F waters for 4 hours and change. Not sure given the modeled size and depth of the cyclone whether that will be enough to really take the edge of this thing.

Don't want to be alarming either, but need answers for that.

No offense to those in the main thread but they suck. Anytime someone has an opinion outside of the consensus they get roasted. Sorry for being OT but it is true.

[Ginx snewx]

Sure, but with a slower than climo forward speed may very well make it through a full tide cycle of pilling water. Anyway, still think it's probably a bit too soon to even be discussing, but worth the mention at least.

There is lots of controversy over wether Prior Cat 4 hurricanes have bigger surge up here as Cat 1 then Cat 1 staying Cat 1 through it's life cycle. Drawing from my experience only, those long rollers which sometimes get 12-15 feet prior to big ones create a sea environment much more prone to higher surge values from minimal hurricanes, jmho.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Another thing to consider will be timing this things point of max intensity relative to sne.

[NorthShoreWx]

I have no idea. My house is only 7 years old, so I hope it'll hold up.

My policy has a specific [much higher] deductible for "Hurricane Windstorm Damage". It is $14,000 and that is the lowest deductible they would sell me. And I am 25 miles from the Ocean . I probably wouldn't sustain that much damage, but I get charged for insurance as if I lived on a barrier island.

My house should hold up too, but if a tree falls on it during a named storm, I'm screwed. I'm fine for extratropical cyclones, tornadoes, meteors, comets (unless they have a name?), etc.

[HarveyLeonardFan]

yeah but he said if it "threads the needle", I think he's saying if everything comes together "perfectly" including a faster northward progression will it be that bad, no?

Of course. Right now NHC has this thing going over Kennedy Airport as a minimal hurricane, which is too far west and too weak for SE New England to experience an historic event we'd be talking about for years to come. If it's 75 miles farther east I'd be confident that Newport would gust to hurricane force and I'd be happy with that, and I'm sure I'd beat my Gloria rainfall total which was a trace. NHC is saying this will be moving at 12MPH sunday night. This better be moving faster if most of us want to see hurricane force wind gusts.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

A gang, how goes it... Been hanging out in the main forum Irene threads - tough crowd. Was laid into by a moderator that clearly doesn't care for what I've had to offer.

My biggest concern here is that this system is availing, timing wise, of the warm SST shelf waters of the year, and an avoidance of interaction with land down near SC/NC would be problematic. Typically, we get these up here in September, post a NW flow event or two that has churned the thermocline on the seasonal downside. This is a bit ahead of the climo model however. I have analyzed the SSTs and there is really only approximately 90 nautical miles between marginal SSTs and LI. Even any unusually slow moving (for latitudes above the Del Marva) 20kt system would really only be over 74-79F waters for 4 hours and change. Not sure given the modeled size and depth of the cyclone whether that will be enough to really take the edge of this thing.

Don't want to be alarming either, but need answers for that.

I didn't want to get into it over there either hearing the reports of problems with posts but when you talk about the timing and the effects of the NW or even easterly antecedent winds....here's a week or so ago after a good blow out of the NE versus today. Major difference in the approach vector to us. With two days of mainly SW winds in the cards it's only going to get toastier to our south.

[Ginx snewx]

When do we get worried that it's trending too far west? Or is that not a concern with the thinking they tend to move east eventually.

Any extended land interaction screws the pooch with a slow mover plus the closer to the coast the more dry continental air entrained.

[SnowMan]

If the NHC track holds and it is over NYC at 8pm Sunday....evacuations up here start when? Downtown Boston shutdown monday?

I know it is too early for a definite answer, just trying to get an idea...

[NECT]

There is lots of controversy over wether Prior Cat 4 hurricanes have bigger surge up here as Cat 1 then Cat 1 staying Cat 1 through it's life cycle. Drawing from my experience only, those long rollers which sometimes get 12-15 feet prior to big ones create a sea environment much more prone to higher surge values from minimal hurricanes, jmho.

Since we have such a small sampling of SNE landfalls, relatively speaking, who knows? Guess that's why we're all here

[ChrisM]

Of course. Right now NHC has this thing going over Kennedy Airport as a minimal hurricane, which is too far west and too weak for SE New England to experience an historic event we'd be talking about for years to come. If it's 75 miles farther east I'd be confident that Newport would gust to hurricane force and I'd be happy with that, and I'm sure I'd beat my Gloria rainfall total which was a trace. NHC is saying this will be moving at 12MPH sunday night. This better be moving faster if most of us want to see hurricane force wind gusts.

ahh I didn't notice the newport location, I'm a little west of you but more inland (at school, not in NW CT). I really think if this thing gets on its horse sunday it can produce 80-90+ gusts around some parts of sne. The track really isnt bad right now considering many have said there is a usual east shift as the event gets closer.

[ROOSTA]

So as I sit thinking (dangerous) about possible outcomes.

I don't the the usual "shearing" which is customary at our latitude. Outside of SST's 4 hours over relatively cool waters this is looking to be intact. NO?

HUGE

Oh no... say it ain't so.

[N. OF PIKE]

so much for RI tonite

lets get her a bit further away from hispanola

that dry downsloping air is still a factor despite how many times jb tweets she's bombing or whatever