Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Another thing to consider will be timing this things point of max intensity relative to sne. Cat 4 at HSE Lat offshore 25 miles and it's WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I didn't want to get into it over there either hearing the reports of problems with posts but when you talk about the timing and the effects of the NW or even easterly antecedent winds....here's a week or so ago after a good blow out of the NE versus today. Major difference in the approach vector to us. With two days of mainly SW winds in the cards it's only going to get toastier to our south. Agreed, and even so, that region of cooler water is narrow even for a 20kt moving major system. Something's gotta give and make this anti climatic - seems something always does LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If the NHC track holds and it is over NYC at 8pm Sunday....evacuations up here start when? Downtown Boston shutdown monday? I know it is too early for a definite answer, just trying to get an idea... Glad I don't have to make that call. But if I did, I'd wait until Friday. The general public will be well aware that there is a possibility by then. As always, you don't want to cry wolf, but you don't want to be blamed for not alerting the people who could be in harm's way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My policy has a specific [much higher] deductible for "Hurricane Windstorm Damage". It is $14,000 and that is the lowest deductible they would sell me. And I am 25 miles from the Ocean . I probably wouldn't sustain that much damage, but I get charged for insurance as if I lived on a barrier island. My house should hold up too, but if a tree falls on it during a named storm, I'm screwed. I'm fine for extratropical cyclones, tornadoes, meteors, comets (unless they have a name?), etc. lol I should ask my mom what her coverage is like... she is in a pretty vunerable spot, 25 yards from the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 There is lots of controversy over wether Prior Cat 4 hurricanes have bigger surge up here as Cat 1 then Cat 1 staying Cat 1 through it's life cycle. Drawing from my experience only, those long rollers which sometimes get 12-15 feet prior to big ones create a sea environment much more prone to higher surge values from minimal hurricanes, jmho. This would def. be the case with this system because it is so large.....the surge created by that expansive window of extreme winds is not just going vanish, once it begins to ascend the continental shelf.....weakening systems with smaller circulations are more prone to dwindling surge potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Agreed, and even so, that region of cooler water is narrow even for a 20kt moving major system. Something's gotta give and make this anti climatic - seems something always does LOL Well the relatively warmer SSTs are fairly shallow that far north and this storm is going to be quite large, so there is likely to be a lot of upwelling of cooler water before the center ever reaches there. The slow movement will certainly let large swells propagate out further ahead of the center than we typically see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'd hate to be flying out of any major airport from BWI to BOS this weekend\next week if this track holds. This is going to screw up air travel for a few days at least along NE corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Agreed, and even so, that region of cooler water is narrow even for a 20kt moving major system. Something's gotta give and make this anti climatic - seems something always does LOL John did some digging, check this out...check me for accuracy it's late...but by my eye it looks like Gloria passed 35/37N on the 27th with water temps about 69-70 based on this http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/view_text_file.php?filename=44009h1985.txt.gz&dir=data/historical/stdmet/ and this http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19857.asp From a historical standpoint if we were to get roughly the same type of track we're looking at significantly warmer water...9+ degrees along most of the track. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If the NHC track holds and it is over NYC at 8pm Sunday....evacuations up here start when? Downtown Boston shutdown monday? I know it is too early for a definite answer, just trying to get an idea... I would imagine late Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Another thing to consider will be timing this things point of max intensity relative to sne. This is why in a sick, twisted, secretive way, I was glad that Hisp. curtailed a potential period of RI.....the fact that it is so large also aids in this respect because it is not so prone to the large intensity fluctuations common to smaller cyclones. May not max quite as high, but it's not as likely to pull an Opal, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well Skywarn has started hurricane coordination messages for Box. http://www.wx1box.org/node/1269 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I didn't want to get into it over there either hearing the reports of problems with posts but when you talk about the timing and the effects of the NW or even easterly antecedent winds....here's a week or so ago after a good blow out of the NE versus today. Major difference in the approach vector to us. With two days of mainly SW winds in the cards it's only going to get toastier to our south. Be careful, though....that is only indicative of sea SURFACE temp.....the skin temp is not so crucial if we lack sufficient OHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 are you saying that the storm could remain stronger regardless of forward speed? Could we have a slow, 10" rain producing cat 1 here? I'm afraid so, but ... important to note the TC forecasting is incredibly fickle. Slight variations here and there, and there are sure to be them at 120 hours, are going to be is surplus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well Skywarn has started hurricane coordination messages for Box. http://www.wx1box.org/node/1269 Ginx... slightly OT, but would south facing beaches be dangerous Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Be careful, though....that is only indicative of sea SURFACE temp.....the skin temp is not so crucial if we lack sufficient OHC. Yeah I posted that just a few posts back. Upwelling will be ongoing well ahead of this system due to its size and slow speed with swells and higher winds well ahead of the center of circulation. I'm skeptical of anything above a cat 1 because of those factors. If we see forward speed increase significantly, then I'd reconsider that stance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 John did some digging, check this out...check me for accuracy it's late...but by my eye it looks like Gloria passed 35/37N on the 27th with water temps about 69-70 based on this http://www.ndbc.noaa...torical/stdmet/ and this http://www.wundergro...ane/at19857.asp From a historical standpoint if we were to get roughly the same type of track we're looking at significantly warmer water...9+ degrees along most of the track. http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=44009 Yes this is fair enough... But as Ray just mentioned, oceanic heat content is not huge passed the G. String interface with the shelf waters. Still, having that +9 in the bank ain't hurtin' Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah I posted that just a few posts back. Upwelling will be ongoing well ahead of this system due to its size and slow speed with swells and higher winds well ahead of the center of circulation. I'm skeptical of anything above a cat 1 because of those factors. If we see forward speed increase significantly, then I'd reconsider that stance. I think it increases (the upwelling that is) as it approaches the shelf. Not only does the depth decrease quickly, but it gets squeezed and turned over faster. I seem to remember that from years back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah I posted that just a few posts back. Upwelling will be ongoing well ahead of this system due to its size and slow speed with swells and higher winds well ahead of the center of circulation. I'm skeptical of anything above a cat 1 because of those factors. If we see forward speed increase significantly, then I'd reconsider that stance. Yea....you need DEPTH of warm waters because the skin in and of itself not only lacks sufficient energy, but it's malleable.....Messenger farts out ahead of this thiing and we shed 3*s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yes this is fair enough... But as Ray just mentioned, oceanic heat content is not huge passed the G. String interface with the shelf waters. Still, having that +9 in the bank ain't hurin' Irene. I see what you did there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Agreed, and even so, that region of cooler water is narrow even for a 20kt moving major system. Something's gotta give and make this anti climatic - seems something always does LOL 45kt TS makes landfall on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ginx... slightly OT, but would south facing beaches be dangerous Friday? Nice swells just starting, rips are strong this week anyway, dangerous in what way, stay below your waist, swim sideways out of rips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 45kt TS makes landfall on Long Island. from the mouths of genius ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yea....you need DEPTH of warm waters because the skin in and of itself not only lacks sufficient energy, but it's malleable.....Messenger farts out ahead of this thiing and we shed 3*s. Yes, but fartin' would add particulates for condensation nuclei ...and well, there you go - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Nice swells just starting, rips are strong this week anyway, dangerous in what way, stay below your waist, swim sideways out of rips. Rips mostly. Was thinking of hitting Newport (Sachuset) Friday, but maybe not if a bit rippy. School starts Monday (maybe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well the relatively warmer SSTs are fairly shallow that far north and this storm is going to be quite large, so there is likely to be a lot of upwelling of cooler water before the center ever reaches there. The slow movement will certainly let large swells propagate out further ahead of the center than we typically see. Will I spend a decent amount of time floating around out south in the summer, it's deeper than you think...especially from the edge south. Shallower of course as you get within 30-60 miles of the islands east of block...like you said fairly shallow closer to home as evidenced by what a day or NW or NE winds will do to SST's. Deeper warm layer off the DE and Jersey coasts as it approaches central LI which would make this track particularly troublesome. Free, and narrowed down...it's pretty warm off the coast right now. http://www.sstcharts...3_15_PM_H.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 45kt TS makes landfall on Long Island. Been there seen this, probably falls apart faster than your cap flew hitting TBs nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Rips mostly. Was thinking of hitting Newport (Sachuset) Friday, but maybe not if a bit rippy. School starts Monday (maybe) Man up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Will I spend a decent amount of time floating around out south in the summer, it's deeper than you think...especially from the edge south. Shallower of course as you get within 30-60 miles of the islands east of block...like you said fairly shallow closer to home as evidenced by what a day or NW or NE winds will do to SST's. Deeper warm layer off the DE and Jersey coasts as it approaches central LI which would make this track particularly troublesome. Free, and narrowed down...it's pretty warm off the coast right now. http://www.sstcharts...3_15_PM_H.shtml It will help slightly, but its generally negligible...TCHP is basically zilch north of 35N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Pull up the OHC chart.....or the tropical cyclone potential intensity chart, that Noyes had......regardless, I have a difficult time fathoming a cat 4 abeam of Hatteras....don't care how high the OHC is.....other mid latitude nuances would modulate intensity at that lat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yea....you need DEPTH of warm waters because the skin in and of itself not only lacks sufficient energy, but it's malleable.....Messenger farts out ahead of this thiing and we shed 3*s. Thermocline was down 20+ feet on the last trip south of the islands. Closer to 30 it appeared. Didn't measure that deep but the difference between surface temps and even 1-2 meters is usually 3-5 F on a normal sunny day. Best shot of it staying stronger is running the line off the NJ coast into LI, if it wanders a little east of that and we have a 1/2 a day of strong east winds temps will plummet into the 60's south of Block and the fizzle factor comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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