ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Can we please limit the extreme OT posts a bit? Yeah we have the regular "Weather banter" thread. Keep this to the hurricane at hand everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 NHC is 75knot cane in Nassau County LI on 00z Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 NHC is 75knot cane in Nassau County LI on 00z Sunday night Thats pretty far west...def a little west of model consensus at the moment. Would be a pretty big impact for most of the region if it took that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 NHC is 75knot cane in Nassau County LI on 00z Sunday night Does that forecast include gusts or sustained only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Anyone have any thoughts on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's unusual to be up waiting on next model run. TC has been modeled extremely well, Scary!!!! But here we be. Always great to see all on board. Steve please extend my condolences to TB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 NHC is 75knot cane in Nassau County LI on 00z Sunday night Must be off, I'm still expecting MIA landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Anyone have any thoughts on the NAM? Its very poor with TCs so most people do not look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I don't yet see the disc but the advisory for 3Z shows track to 40.5/73......a pummeling! Still a solid cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Thats pretty far west...def a little west of model consensus at the moment. Would be a pretty big impact for most of the region if it took that track. It is very close to the "consensus" models like the TVCN where they typically keep the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Bouchard's comment was along the lines of NHC going with the outlier west track....showed the 0z models with 3 or so hitting SE NE, 1 or 2 dead in the middle and a few west pointing out the "orange one" was the NHC track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Crappy day for a meaningless earthquake The news just blew past Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I don't yet see the disc but the advisory for 3Z shows track to 40.5/73......a pummeling! Still a solid cat 1. That mimics ships in intensity and location, was just looking at that text dat when the advisory came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The NHC held it at 80kt just to spite JB lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's unusual to be up waiting on next model run. TC has been modeled extremely well, Scary!!!! But here we be. Always great to see all on board. Steve please extend my condolences to TB. Someone PM me....must have missed that Hard to believe it ends up that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That mimics ships in intensity and location, was just looking at that text dat when the advisory came out. Timing would be Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Does that forecast include gusts or sustained only? OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 40.5N 73.5WMAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The NHC held it at 80kt just to spite JB lol hehe. I mean it's defintely intensifying on satellite, but maybe surface winds haven't caught up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 *IF* Irene threads the needle, would we expect a Bob/Gloria scenario, or something much more historic? I know it's days away, and I completely get what's going on in terms of difficulty of forecasting any TS. But Bob and Gloria both came ashore here and were major weather systems and very disruptive in general terms...where could Irene fit in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Timing would be Epic Would the surge in Boston and the eastern coastline of Mass be affected since it is more protect by the Cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 hehe. I mean it's defintely intensifying on satellite, but maybe surface winds haven't caught up yet. Sfc winds are usually delayed behind improved satellite and pressure drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Someone PM me....must have missed that Hard to believe it ends up that far west. His mom passed. They move in small increments but it does mimic Ships which has been pretty spot on with Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Timing would be Epic<img src="http://tapatalk.com/mu/42d4d0af-6b9a-449c.jpg" /> What is the chart for s coastal points? That would be insane but probably out of synch? Sorry about TB's mom. Always tough no matter how advanced in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 His mom passed. They move in small increments but it does mimic Ships which has been pretty spot on with Irene. Sorry to hear....sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Timing would be Epic Not sure Boston Harbor itself will have a huge issue, wouldn't south facing inlets be more at risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Would the surge in Boston and the eastern coastline of Mass be affected since it is more protect by the Cape? Depends on length and duration of Easterly fetch but absolutely, just gave BOS as an example of tide height and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 *IF* Irene threads the needle, would we expect a Bob/Gloria scenario, or something much more historic? I know it's days away, and I completely get what's going on in terms of difficulty of forecasting any TS. But Bob and Gloria both came ashore here and were major weather systems and very disruptive in general terms...where could Irene fit in? Based on forecast, I think you're right on the money regarding comparisons to Boob, Gloria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Based on forecast, I think you're right on the money regarding comparisons to Boob, Gloria Keep it on topic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Would the surge in Boston and the eastern coastline of Mass be affected since it is more protect by the Cape? It depends on the track...if the storm tracks up near the Cape, then BOS would be more prone to surge because of east winds...if it tracks well west into CT, then much less impact in BOS harbor but overall southerly winds might be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I posted the tidal heights for Providence earlier in this thread. But with astronomical high tide occurring this weekend even a fairly minimal storm surge would result in flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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