Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event?

[hoosierwx]

Very detailed discussion from LMK:

...MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER WEEKEND

BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF WEATHER AND WIND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST

OF ARCTIC AIR...

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD

AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME AMPLIFICATION. BY

SATURDAY...WE WILL BE WATCHING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CRUISE OUT OF THE

PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES. AS THIS WAVE

DIVES SOUTHEAST...IT WILL AMPLIFY AND CLOSE OFF WEST OF THE

MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THEN TURN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A -NAO TO BE IN PLACE...ONE WOULD

THINK THE BLOCKING MECHANISM WOULD BE THERE FOR GOOD EAST COAST

STORM. HOWEVER...THERE SEVERAL PIECES OF THE PUZZLE THAT ARE

MISSING.

FIRST...THE -NAO IS NOT A WEST BASED -NAO...BUT RATHER AN

EAST BASED ONE. THAT IS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS ACTUALLY LOCATED

EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND. SECOND...THERE IS NO STRONG LOW

OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...BUT RATHER JUST SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND

FINALLY...THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS NOT ALL THAT TALL...BUT RATHER

FLAT WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE. THUS...FROM A SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER

LEVEL SETUP...THE UPPER LOW MOST LIKELY WILL CUT UP INTO THE GREAT

LAKES. ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST MJO FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE MJO

WILL MOVE INTO PHASE 5-6 WHICH SUPPORTS A GREAT LAKES STORM TRACK.

WITH THAT SAID...BOTH THE 06/00Z EURO AND 06/12Z GFS ARE ACTUALLY IN

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW

CUTTING OFF BEFORE REACHING THE MS RIVER AND THEN BECOMING NEG

TILTED AND HEADING OFF INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE

SURFACE...A SFC LOW WOULD EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS AND THEN DIG

TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND THEN PULL QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

THIS WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SURE

WITH RAIN AND WIND ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LOW...FOLLOWED BY

BACKLASH SNOWS ON THE BACKSIDE ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE TRENDED THE FCST CLOSE TO A 06/00Z EURO AND 06/12Z

GFS COMPROMISE. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON

SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

WITH SUCH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA...IT WILL BE QUITE

WINDY...WITH WINDS OF 20-25MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AS

COLDER AIR PUSHES IN THE BACKSIDE...WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO

SNOW IN ALL LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SNOW

SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION

WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THAT PART

OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

[AppsRunner]

No wonder I get headaches so often in winter.

[A-L-E-K]

If the 18z GFS or anything like it i'm going to have a lot of people snowed in at my place, i don't think i'd have the heart to cancel

[csnavywx]

If the GFS is wrong, I think this will be the first time in recent memory that it missed a phase event, being as it typically goes hog-wild with it. Regardless, given the jet setup and thermal fields, the southern low should be favored. Though the last time I mentioned this, the system ended up being a strung-out piece of crap as a result of no dominant low.

[JoMo]

18z 126 GFS Ensembles:

Shame they'll be back to the north track tonight.......

[BowMeHunter]

If the 18z GFS or anything like it i'm going to have a lot of people snowed in at my place, i don't think i'd have the heart to cancel

Think its all snow or a slop fest to start on the 18z? Looks like a good amount of precip in the cold air still though.

[Thundersnow12]

LOT

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THE

MODELS ARE FORECASTING ANOTHER NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TO

TRANSVERSE THE ROCKIES BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHERE

THIS SYSTEM TRACKS...IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION RIGHT NOW. THE

ECMWF FAVORS A NORTHWARD SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND

NORTHERN IL. HOWEVER...THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH. A GFS

SOLUTION WOULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT TO NORTHERN IL. THE

WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN

CHANGING TO SNOW ON SUNDAY. THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST LOW

PREDICTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW...HAVE

CHOSEN TO HOLD MIDDLE GROUND UNTIL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGE A

LITTLE MORE CLOSELY...AND WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW SOUTH

AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH.

[A-L-E-K]

Think its all snow or a slop fest to start on the 18z? Looks like a good amount of precip in the cold air still though.

Not worth analyzing p-type too much, but it is fun and we are weenies. A track from Mizzou to just south of Detroit (slowly) is pretty ideal for this time of year. Surface temps looks like they get to just above freezing (which will happen with this kind of WAA and gulf connection) but 850s crash hard when the best QPF arrives. It will probably be one of the best fantasy runs the GFS puts out inside 140 hrs this winter, hr 138 would be near blizzard conditions here on the lake.

[Macintosh]

Looks like here south of St. Louis it's going to be a borderline rain/snow event depending on exactly how the low tracks. A bit further south and we'll get blasted but any farther north and it's a rainstorm.

[wxdudemike]

18 GFS matches my thoughts pretty well...Not a lot of snow down this way, but still gonna be a fun storm. Looks like the wrap-around fluff is decent.

[michsnowfreak]

DTX says it all...at this point, all you can do is throw it all on the table. Models have tons of shifting ahead. Im going to try and worry about the clipper first lol

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE

CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND UNLIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...SHOULD

BE ABLE TO MERGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO

DURING THE WEEKEND. THROW IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE PHASING WITH THE POLAR

JET SINKING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA....AND IT LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR

STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN

QUESTION BEING WHETHER IT WILL BE AN EASTERN SEABOARD BOMB...OR

WESTERN APPALACHIANS LOW-PITTSBURGH PA PRIMARY LOW WHICH IS SLOW TO

TRANSFER TO THE COAST...AND THUS A FAVORABLE SYSTEM UP FOR HEAVY

SNOW FOR OUR CWA. A THIRD SCENARIO IS EVEN FARTHER WEST TRACK

RESULTING FROM QUICKER PHASING/RAPID DEEPENING...RESULTING IN RAIN

FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY.

[Thundersnow12]

gosh is that nice looking or what

[Stebo]

gosh is that nice looking or what

Yeah that amount of -Omegas would certainly be indicative of a real strong burst of precip more than likely snow.

[tombo82685]

can i do the euro pbp for you guys if thats alright? Pretty bleak chances back in my area, but its always exciting doing it for areas that are in the hunt.

[Ajdos]

Do you guys remember that storm a couple of weeks ago, it was also negatively tilted, and it was a rain storm for most of us, this storm actually could take characteristics and similarities like that storm.. The track it take is still up in the air, but it could possibly very similar to that storm

[Jim Martin]

I am dreaming of a White Christmas if this storm dumps lots of snow here

[Chicago Storm]

can i do the euro pbp for you guys if thats alright? Pretty bleak chances back in my area, but its always exciting doing it for areas that are in the hunt.

I don't see a problem with it.

[tombo82685]

I don't see a problem with it.

alright, do you guys want it in here or somewhere else?

[Chicago Storm]

alright, do you guys want it in here or somewhere else?

In here would work...we don't do model threads.

[tombo82685]

alright i will start posting in here once it starts

[Chicago Storm]

Being so far out this is just "eye candy"....but 18z Bufkit GFS predicts....

For csnavy using KRFD sounding very light FZRA then -RA untill -SN and a total of about 2 inches.

Seems off.

[patrick7032]

Being so far out this is just "eye candy"....but 18z Bufkit GFS predicts....

For KLAF total 1 inch of rain and 8.1 inches snow.

For csnavy using KRFD sounding very light FZRA then -RA then -SN and a total of about 2 inches.

For Bow -FZRA and temp rises to +2 (prob heat flux off lake) after getting .3 ice....then -RA....then .1 PL then 2.2 inches snow.

For KGYY .25 inches -RA then -SN becoming +SN and 9.8 inches.

For KFWA .4 inches FZRA then SN 8.2 inches.

I get .1 inches -FZRA then SN 7.6 inches.

Of course this will all change.

[patrick7032]

Being so far out this is just "eye candy"....but 18z Bufkit GFS predicts....

For KLAF total 1 inch of rain and 8.1 inches snow.

For csnavy using KRFD sounding very light FZRA then -RA then -SN and a total of about 2 inches.

For Bow -FZRA and temp rises to +2 (prob heat flux off lake) after getting .3 ice....then -RA....then .1 PL then 2.2 inches snow.

For KGYY .25 inches -RA then -SN becoming +SN and 9.8 inches.

For KFWA .4 inches FZRA then SN 8.2 inches.

I get .1 inches -FZRA then SN 7.6 inches.

Of course this will all change.

[patrick7032]

Seems off.

Yeah don't know just what it is showing....Hits a KLAF to southern lower as the heaviest snow area.

[buckeye]

alright i will start posting in here once it starts

You are cautiously welcome here, however you will be watched very carefully....at the first sign that the euro is shifting to an eastcoast threat, you WILL be escorted out immediately.

actually I look forward to your commentary and play by play.

[tombo82685]

You are cautiously welcome here, however you will be watched very carefully....at the first sign that the euro is shifting to an eastcoast threat, you WILL be escorted out immediately.

actually I look forward to your commentary and play by play.

hahahaah thanks, just fyi im not doing this for reverse psychology. Its just fun doing the pbp to an area where there is a good potential for snow.

[Indystorm]

Well, Patrick, thanks for the heads up. I was supposed to attend a banquet in Indpls Saturday evening then try to drive back here to Elkhart that night. Think I will now cancel the trip given the prospects of this major developing storm in this active pattern we've entered.

[patrick7032]

Well, Patrick, thanks for the heads up. I was supposed to attend a banquet in Indpls Saturday evening then try to drive back here to Elkhart that night. Think I will now cancel the trip given the prospects of this major developing storm in this active pattern we've entered.

It's your call but I would wait to cancel the trip as the energy to support this system won't be sampled for days....it was just eye candy like I said....if it shows it by Wednesday depending on how much time you have to cancel then maybe....but it's up to you.

[binovc]

KGRR GFS snow tool close to 14 inches.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/snowtool/

[patrick7032]

KGRR GFS snow tool close to 14 inches.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/snowtool/

Nice....Jackson is only 40 minutes west of metro and it shows 19.9 there.