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Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event?

Chicago Storm

By Chicago Storm,
in Central/Western States

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The_Global_Warmer

The_Global_Warmer

Posted
Posted

Do you guys remember that storm a couple of weeks ago, it was also negatively tilted, and it was a rain storm for most of us, this storm actually could take characteristics and similarities like that storm.. The track it take is still up in the air, but it could possibly very similar to that storm

If you are referring to the one around thanksgiving that was a resistively titled H5 tough that was very progressive moving across our area.

I think you should be in a favorable area for some snow.

Not a favorable as Laf, Chicago, Kirksville, Springfield, IL.

I envision something similar to the GFS. I am not sold it will move this far south and have the cyclogenisis so late. I can see SE OK to the IL/IN/KY border then towards your area.

for me to get snow an inverted trough would probably be to warm with a weaker open wave unless goes really far south.

I have no looked at other guidance as in detail with the 1st wave but the GFS seems decently strong with it. which may help us with the 2nd wave.

remember we had a storm early this year start out weak and the 2nd storm was positioned to be North and it ended up carving out a deeper trough for the 2nd wave.

if we get more amplification with the Jet Streak out of the PNW, we might be able to get this to deepen in North Central/Eastern Texas and pull more cold air down and take a more favorable track for I-70 and then your area.

my gut tells me to prepare the umbrella, it will either be to weak and warm, or to strong and west and warm.

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patrick7032

patrick7032

Posted
Posted

I must admit it would be very tough the rest of this season to recover if Jackson and/or Flint sees 1.5 feet while we in Detroit see a sloppy mix.

Thank goodness it's still 5 days out.

Bufkit was showing 7.6 inches but the amounts that I posted earlier was using a standard 10:1 ratio....if it was 20:1 or 24:1 as that page from GRR says it would be higher....based on the profile I'd go 15:1 so about 10 inches or so....IF IT VERIFIES.

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

Sorry for the "IMBY" question, but a lot of the discussion so far has been centered on the Midwest/Ohio Valley areas.

On Friday afternoon I'm driving 230km southwest to the southern tip of Lake Huron in Sarnia ON/Port Huron MI for a weekend event, then returning home Sunday afternoon. My party has spent $250 on refundable tickets for the event, but if we wait to long we won't get our money back. TWN mentioned the possibility of a winter storm this weekend over the Great Lakes, but didn't give much detail. Checking their forecast, they don't have snow until Sunday, which is 5-10cm. But, on the tv channel they have a snowflake over southern Ontario for Friday.

Is there any risk of significant weather Friday afternoon through until 10pm? That is when I'll be in transit down the 401 and 402. I can deal with waiting out the storm once and if I can get down to Sarnia safely. But, I couldn't wait any more than one day to leave. So, I'd have to be home by Monday night for work on Tuesday. The only problem is, you can't get back to K-W from Sarnia without going through the current ongoing major bands of lake effect snow. Just today the Western Region OPP reported 210 collisions this morning on highways. If the lake effect after the storm is expected to be just like, or worse, than what we are receiving right now, then I do not want to put myself in the position of driving 230km through heavy intense lake effect.

I will listen to the radio show tonight for further information and analysis... but right now, even though it's still 5-6 days out, should I be reconsidering the trip?

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

Bufkit was showing 7.6 inches but the amounts that I posted earlier was using a standard 10:1 ratio....if it was 20:1 or 24:1 as that page from GRR says it would be higher....based on the profile I'd go 15:1 so about 10 inches or so....IF IT VERIFIES.

Those are probably too generous..

I'd expect about half of that snow will features ratios sub 10:1 here, since intially we will have to wet bulb aggregates through the warm layer.

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AppsRunner

AppsRunner

Posted
Posted

You are cautiously welcome here, however you will be watched very carefully....at the first sign that the euro is shifting to an eastcoast threat, you WILL be escorted out immediately.:gun_bandana:

:P actually I look forward to your commentary and play by play.

Having a further east track is by far better then one through Northern Illinois

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csnavywx

csnavywx

Posted
Posted

Does anyone know why the 18z GFS at 300mb is much more amplified then the 12z GFS? At H5 the 18z GFS has a nice 588dm ridge out west, at 12z its flatter.

Because of a significantly more powerful jet streak and shared energy area. The NAM had this at 12z, and the GFS now matches it at 18z at this level. This is part of why the storm blows up so much on the 18z.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Not worth analyzing p-type too much, but it is fun and we are weenies. A track from Mizzou to just south of Detroit (slowly) is pretty ideal for this time of year. Surface temps looks like they get to just above freezing (which will happen with this kind of WAA and gulf connection) but 850s crash hard when the best QPF arrives. It will probably be one of the best fantasy runs the GFS puts out inside 140 hrs this winter, hr 138 would be near blizzard conditions here on the lake.

If the GFS is right there's no doubt in my mind you'd have gusts of 50+ mph. The wind fields it's showing are mighty impressive.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

HPC

12Z MODELS:

DETERMINISTIC 12Z/06 GUIDANCE IS STILL ON TRACK IN MOVING A

WEAKENING STORM ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES THU-SAT....AND

WITH DEVELOPING A NEW MAJOR ERN CONUS STORM NEXT WEEKEND. BY SUN

DAY 6...THE GFS IS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS

WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE SLOW SIDE. ECMWF WAS FARTHER N WITH THE

PRIMARY LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND

NOT QUITE AS FAR E AS THE GFS WITH THE SECONDARY CENTER DEVELOPING

DAY 6 VICINITY OF VA/NC. I WILL NUDGE THE DAY 6 FINAL LOW POSITION

JUST A TAD TO THE E OVER KY. THIS SYS WILL BE A MAJOR WEATHER

PRODUCER AS SYNOPTIC HEAVY SNOWFALL NEXT WEEKEND IN THE GREAT

LAKES LAKES REGION GIVES WAY TO MORE EFFECT SN BY DAY 7.

If the GFS is right there's no doubt in my mind you'd have gusts of 50+ mph. The wind fields it's showing are mighty impressive.

Agree, NNE wind events always crank here. Hi-rise+plus interrupted lake flow+major storm=serious window rattling winds.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

HPC

Agree, NNE wind events always crank here. Hi-rise+plus interrupted lake flow+major storm=serious window rattling winds.

This would be one of the events that could close Lakeshore Drive if the GFS were to pan out like this. Still a long way to go obviously but there is some real weather porn showing up on some of these runs.

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

I can't recall a rain to snow event that produced that much rain followed by that much snow. I'm sure it's possible but I'd be really cautious with that at this point.

It has happened quite a few times, but usually the geographic area was small and the low was double barreled.

The most recent one I can recall is Super Tuesday 2008 storm.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Well we'd be in trouble if it did considering how cold it's going to get afterwards. That would be a real mess.

True, but I'm not feeling much if any snowfall here with this system. Still, depending on how much rain we get, with the cold air rushing in on the backside, it's going to be quite icy.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

True, but I'm not feeling much if any snowfall here with this system. Still, depending on how much rain we get, with the cold air rushing in on the backside, it's going to be quite icy.

Wow, you're already throwing in the towel? I just got on for the first time so still looking things over...

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