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Retrograde Snowstorm by 12/5?


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he said too much stuff going on right now to post. i asked him to post it. he loves the pattern..said a slightly warmer Dec 1995

Even thouigh the Euro blows I have a feeling it won't be as bad as the Euro shows. If the Euro is right I'm going to have Tip FedEx me his chair and noose.

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We may.........BUT, the event(s) won't be blockbusters most likely, wrt intensity....maybe so duration-wise, unless synoptically we can introduce a more westerly component to the mean llv wind.

yeah i was thinking maybe more like the upslope regions of WV given what looks like a pretty deep NW flow. some place like snowshow or something like that.

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THat's what I thought as well :lol:

Then I was told about this wonderful thing called downslope :axe:

... but in order to downslope, it has to upslope somewhere... :devilsmiley:

I think LSC suffers worst though on ESE flow during big synoptic events. That's when they downslope off the Presidential Range in NH and everyone else is getting .5-.75" QPF every 6 hours while the northeast Kingdom is seeing .1-.25".

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EURO has had some hard inconsistencies in the 5-10 day range. Flip flop galore. It looks like this threat is all but done, although with such a dynamic system sitting roughly 100-200 miles to my southeast with a 4 day forecast, potential errors could still put my area at risk for snow. Models are developing the 700mb low right over Cape Cod, MA. This means the models could be seeing potential for snow bands over me, but yet again the surface low moves too far to the northeast for any appreciable precipitation. I think we will know a lot more by tomorrow's 12z runs. Still not totally sold on a non event for cape Cod, MA.

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Yeah, there is a really good surge coming down on this run..post d6. This goes until about d7-8.

Yeah, i'm wondering if we're in one of those old neutralize-the-anomaly games - we'll see.

What's funny is the nearer term - though less likely, it's still not impossible that the NAM could be right. ...not to poke the hornet's nest or anything..

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Will, do you actually think the 12z NAM could be potentially right about the first low giving SNE snow?

Yeah it could be right. Even several of the other models that don't want to spit out much qpf have high RH in the 700mb region showing a potential weak deformation area backing SW over SNE.

We might not get 2-5" like the NAM shows, but there could be coating to an inch or two over a lot of the area if that setup occurs.

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You read through the thread and note the pessimists, optimists, optometrists, and neutralists. How one can be upset over this Euro run considering the calendar is beyond me. Yes it shows a modified cutter d10. But it also shows an easterly block a HP to the north, and a more classically placed 50/50. Get those 3 things, this storm won't be a cutter. In fact, even the Euro acknowledges the CAD if you look at llvl temps. And plenty cold after that. And we're not yet to mid December.

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I think you overall have to like what's depicted. The cold builds in Canada as normal, and the persistent GOA low hugs the west coast of Canada with possible sw ridging..not to mention the block up north persisting. At least imo.

Debbie just downs everything and everyone..luckily most people know to take with agrain of salt..and look for the positives

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I think you overall have to like what's depicted. The cold builds in Canada as normal, and the persistent GOA low hugs the west coast of Canada with possible sw ridging..not to mention the block up north persisting. At least imo.

In general the pattern looks great... megablock relaxes and eventually we kick out the ULL which is more or less screwing us in the 5-8 day period.

I think down the road Dec 10-20 is going to be fun. op Euro verbatim probably blows for a lot of us but the signs are certainly there.

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