CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Debbie just downs everything and everyone..luckily most people know to take with agrain of salt..and look for the positives Well I think 12/4-12/5 is over for most of us outside of NE Mass. I was commenting afterward about the op Euro verbatim and how much it sucks... I really think the pattern has many opportunities for snow down the line especially in the 12/10-12/20 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Debbie just downs everything and everyone..luckily most people know to take with agrain of salt..and look for the positives You've been tough on him...lol. I don't think he downed anything. Could we just be cold and dry and then some sort of inside runner...sure, but in general the pattern looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 In general the pattern looks great... megablock relaxes and eventually we kick out the ULL which is more or less screwing us in the 5-8 day period. I think down the road Dec 10-20 is going to be fun. op Euro verbatim probably blows for a lot of us but the signs are certainly there. Maybe it will be boring..who knows, but it's certainly not a bad pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 You've been tough on him...lol. I don't think he downed anything. Could we just be cold and dry and then some sort of inside runner...sure, but in general the pattern looks pretty good. He can't be allowed to just run rampant on here unchallenged and crap on everyone's optimism..Someone has to offer some positive resistance. I like the fact that Will feels pretty good for a couple inches for many of us 12/4-12/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 You've been tough on him...lol. I don't think he downed anything. Could we just be cold and dry and then some sort of inside runner...sure, but in general the pattern looks pretty good. Yeah we really need to like the pattern going forward. I don't think a month ago many of us would have expected such a monster -NAO with a very cold first 15 or 20 days of Dec. The first week of Dec is pretty much a loss... but my mid December things could get stormy. The op Euro could be right and we could leave heartbroken.. but I think the pattern in general looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Maybe it will be boring..who knows, but it's certainly not a bad pattern. Could be much, much worse for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 He can't be allowed to just run rampant on here unchallenged and crap on everyone's optimism..Someone has to offer some positive resistance. I like the fact that Will feels pretty good for a couple inches for many of us 12/4-12/5 No one besides you is expecting a couple inches for most of SNE this weekend. As for the day 10 storm... it could suck for the coastal plain like the op Euro shows or we could get rocked.... the pattern looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Could be much, much worse for sure! Ya every storm in the time period could be like yesterdays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 No one besides you is expecting a couple inches for most of SNE this weekend. As for the day 10 storm... it could suck for the coastal plain like the op Euro shows or we could get rocked.... the pattern looks good. I would say at least half the posters here mets included are thinking 1-3 or 4 is a pretty good bet this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah it could be right. Even several of the other models that don't want to spit out much qpf have high RH in the 700mb region showing a potential weak deformation area backing SW over SNE. We might not get 2-5" like the NAM shows, but there could be coating to an inch or two over a lot of the area if that setup occurs. Exactly, how in the Sam Hell does anyone think a 511 parked over us does not produce ground covering snow is beyond me. Well maybe if I lived west of the CT river south of 84I would. Moisture rung out of the air, snowing with partly cloudy sky, occasional bursts of moderate for a good 36hour period is what I gleam from the model runs so far today but I still believe the final solutions are not locked by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 I would say at least half the posters here mets included are thinking 1-3 or 4 is a pretty good bet this weekend I beg to differ and have a feeling you're going to be disappointed. I see you have cut your forecast more or less in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Exactly, how in the Sam Hell does anyone think a 511 parked over us does not produce ground covering snow is beyond me. Well maybe if I lived west of the CT river south of 84I would. Moisture rung out of the air, snowing with partly cloudy sky, occasional bursts of moderate for a good 36hour period is what I gleam from the model runs so far today but I still believe the final solutions are not locked by any means. Thank god I'm north of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 He can't be allowed to just run rampant on here unchallenged and crap on everyone's optimism..Someone has to offer some positive resistance. I like the fact that Will feels pretty good for a couple inches for many of us 12/4-12/5 12/4-5 will be tricky. In the past, we've seen the models show very little qpf in regions with high mid level RH. That's kind of a red flag imo, and why I posted those graphics earlier. Usually if you have high 850-500 RH..that's a signal for some light snow. Obviously where this sets up is key. Is it over sne or PWM...we don't know yet. The one thing with these ULL and retro storms is that there is usually surprise snow. It could be a narrow band or two under the ULL, or it could be from the WAA and deformation band coming down from Maine. I don't think anyone can say for certain at this time. I do think it's possible for the wrap around to sneak into parts of ne mass anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 18z NAM is further south with the closing of the 500mb low at hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Exactly, how in the Sam Hell does anyone think a 511 parked over us does not produce ground covering snow is beyond me. Well maybe if I lived west of the CT river south of 84I would. Moisture rung out of the air, snowing with partly cloudy sky, occasional bursts of moderate for a good 36hour period is what I gleam from the model runs so far today but I still believe the final solutions are not locked by any means. I think many in the eastern half of SNE could see their first measurable. Not sure if there's many reports of over an inch, but there should be snow in the air and occasionally producing some heavier bursts...these types of ULLs are not easy to forecast. I've seen them produce just a flurry and other times when you think its not going to snow, we see a surprise weak def. band form and people end up with a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 12/4-5 will be tricky. In the past, we've seen the models show very little qpf in regions with high mid level RH. That's kind of a red flag imo, and why I posted those graphics earlier. Usually if you have high 850-500 RH..that's a signal for some light snow. Obviously where this sets up is key. Is it over sne or PWM...we don't know yet. The one thing with these ULL and retro storms is that there is usually surprise snow. It could be a narrow band or two under the ULL, or it could be from the WAA and deformation band coming down from Maine. I don't think anyone can say for certain at this time. I do think it's possible for the wrap around to sneak into parts of ne mass anyways. Yeah I think areas northeast of KGAY could squeeze out a surprise 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Could be much, much worse for sure! At this point, I just kick back and hope..lol. That's all you can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I can't tell what the NAM is doing, looks about the same with that S/w maybe a bit weaker?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 I think many in the eastern half of SNE could see their first measurable. Not sure if there's many reports of over an inch, but there should be snow in the air and occasionally producing some heavier bursts...these types of ULLs are not easy to forecast. I've seen them produce just a flurry and other times when you think its not going to snow, we see a surprise weak def. band form and people end up with a few inches. But would you say "1-3 or 4 inches is a good bet for a majority of SNE"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 18z NAM is further south with the closing of the 500mb low at hour 54. Less robust with qpf and southern extent by a considerable margin out to 66. Major shift away from 12Z depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 At this point, I just kick back and hope..lol. That's all you can do. Yup.... pattern looks great past day 7... just need to get it to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 But would you say "1-3 or 4 inches is a good bet for a majority of SNE"? No I wouldn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The NAM has about as much run to run consistency as Kevin's forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 At hour 60 it opens up the 500mb low some and strings out the energy. Too bad we are not seeing the bundling of energy we would like for a major snowstorm. 700mb circulation is quite broad as well and further northeast. Clipper is weak as it tracks through eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 No I wouldn't LOL thank you! I think some spots maybe even many see flakes in the air. Would I be surprised if Essex county Mass is able to squeeze out an inch or two? not at all. But widespread 1-3 and certainly 3-6" does not look likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Here is an example of a huge bust because of a stretched out ULL...this setup was more ideal and produced heavy amounts, but it illustrates the danger of bust potential I think the forecast was for like 2-5" but then we snowed forever after the main low exited and parts of central MA ended up with a foot of snow....pretty big bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 18z NAM hour 66 is further north with the first low, maybe making room for the clipper low to come up the coast more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Nam = lame, nothing at 66 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Here is an example of a huge bust because of a stretched out ULL...this setup was more ideal and produced heavy amounts, but it illustrates the danger of bust potential I think the forecast was for like 2-5" but then we snowed forever after the main low exited and parts of central MA ended up with a foot of snow....pretty big bust. That's a totally different setup. You had a 700mb low close near ACK and then stretch out with an inverted sfc trough and strong mid level frontogenesis as the thing pulled away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 A person would need to be in northern NNE to see anything from storm #1 and 2 if the NAM is correct. Not good for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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