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Tulip Trouncer 5........The Comeback


Mr Torchey

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I would say we had around 7 inches here. Maybe a little more before compaction. It has slowed to very light snow in just the past hour. I was able to make it out to a corner of the back yard where I hadn't gotten to all winter and found 20 inches was still on the ground in a large area. We got another inch after that.

Here are a some pictures from a this evening. I like how in the picture with my dog you can see the pile of snow off my neighbor's roof are still as high as the first floor roof.

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post-1533-0-59757600-1301705399.jpg

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Now that all you weenies have had your final fling with winter, when does it hit 65-70? How much longer are we doomed with this 40-50f hell that's preventing the courses from opening? Will this dreadful pattern change after next Tuesday?

LOL You have a two months of backdoor CF to deal with still. Raw, damp, 40's

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Well, I decided to forgo skiing this evening and instead went to IKEA in Stoughton.

Heavy heavy $$$ on furniture

No snow at all down there. Snowinh here attm

I measured 7.0" when I left for work this morning. As per my wife we got another inch after, so 8.0" total

When I got home from work around 3:30PM it was down to 5.0"

time to update the sig! And report to BOX

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Well, I decided to forgo skiing this evening and instead went to IKEA in Stoughton.

Heavy heavy $$$ on furniture

No snow at all down there. Snowinh here attm

I measured 7.0" when I left for work this morning. As per my wife we got another inch after, so 8.0" total

When I got home from work around 3:30PM it was down to 5.0"

time to update the sig! And report to BOX

Lobstah Dinnah cancel, me FTL, skiing in this stuff is an ACL waiting to pop

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update from the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont....over 6" of new snow at Lyndon State College. Over a foot of new snow at Burke Mountain! I was there today and it was actually quite powdery from the mid-lodge to the top. The snow was half way up my knees in the untouched stuff. Unfortunately I slid off the access road to the mountain on my back back to school. Car could have flipped over but it didn't. Got pulled out and drove away. There were a couple more accidents along the same stretch, one that happened right after mine and the road was shut down for a while. It dumped all afternoon. Almost a half inch of fresh snow just from the lift ride!

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update from the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont....over 6" of new snow at Lyndon State College. Over a foot of new snow at Burke Mountain! I was there today and it was actually quite powdery from the mid-lodge to the top. The snow was half way up my knees in the untouched stuff. Unfortunately I slid off the access road to the mountain on my back back to school. Car could have flipped over but it didn't. Got pulled out and drove away. There were a couple more accidents along the same stretch, one that happened right after mine and the road was shut down for a while. It dumped all afternoon. Almost a half inch of fresh snow just from the lift ride!

Sweet, glad everything turned out ok with the car. Damn, April 1 and dry Powdah, got to love it.

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Well, I decided to forgo skiing this evening and instead went to IKEA in Stoughton.

Heavy heavy $$$ on furniture

No snow at all down there. Snowinh here attm

I measured 7.0" when I left for work this morning. As per my wife we got another inch after, so 8.0" total

When I got home from work around 3:30PM it was down to 5.0"

time to update the sig! And report to BOX

I skied WAWA tonight, with cpick79...i had a blast, but it was very slow snow...i actually skied the black diamonds today...first time on black diamond because i knew i couldn't get super fast out of control...snowed off and on for about 2hrs...then it became a constant steady snow...the top of the mtn looked so beautiful!

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Final was 6.8" here barring getting a few tenths from this last burst. Princeton got 8.4"...was hoping we'd get a little more overall, but not complaining about warning criteria snowfall in April. Pretty nice event. Tough break for Mt. Pocono though.

You lied to me about school and I had to go on 5 hours sleep! lol.

You beat me by 3". Congrats on missing 100" by less then 2".

Well, I decided to forgo skiing this evening and instead went to IKEA in Stoughton.

Heavy heavy $$ on furniture

No snow at all down there. Snowinh here attm

I measured 7.0" when I left for work this morning. As per my wife we got another inch after, so 8.0" total

When I got home from work around 3:30PM it was down to 5.0"

time to update the sig! And report to BOX

I'm beating you on the year by .6 weight_lift.gif

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You didn't mention one of the most egregious errors, the 18Z NAM's... literally within 6 hours of the event, one of our best high-res models, it put out a 1.5-2.5" nuke Worcester-Boston, a potent CCB and omega that certainly could have overcome marginal thermal fields. This is not just qpf-hugging... it closed off the 700mb low way too quickly, critical to that prodigious qpf. And we get literally 1/3 of that qpf. Huge difference in sensible weather, within 6 hours of it happening.

Perhaps it's something peculiar to this season (Typhoon Tip's "teleconnectors" or something smaller scale?), but it seems the models have been performing unusually badly compared to previous years... this week, Jan 27, and some other occasions when we were on the edge of our seats from short-term model confusion...

Thoughts?

The 18z NAM definitely went crazy with the QPF on its 18z run, although that's one of its biases, it always overdoes dynamics in a CCB. I think all of the models wanted to close off this storm earlier than they should have; there was a lack of recognition of the harmful effects of splitting the second shortwave into two pieces, although we all should have been conscious of the fact that the trend from Tuesday to Thursday was for a later and later development of the mid-levels, meaning that the trend could be even more exaggerated in the actual result. I was very suspicious of the storm when I saw the radar, too much convection down south and too many random bands, clearly a sign of wave interference. I don't know why the models have been so poor this year; it's possible the storms were more clear-cut with the power of the sub-tropical jet in Winter 09-10, so that there were fewer moving parts necessary to develop a large coastal. I think the GFS upgrade, although beneficial in reducing QPF bombs and improving tropical storm forecasting, has somehow inhibited the model from adjusting to the changing synoptics of an event....it just seems to get stuck with one solution, as it did in the 3/24 storm.

Joe's area doesn't average much snow in March...probably something like 5" or so. December is actually a snowier month than March in BDR. And actually, so is Dobbs Ferry.

So a whiff on March snow isn't unusual for him. What is unusual is getting blasted with over 70" of snow and probably having over 2 feet of snow pack for a week or more.

Doesn't Central Park average more snow in March than December? Why would this be different in BDR? Are we talking about the full 140-year record, because March was a very snowy month in the 1950s and 1960s, and now December has become the favorite for big snowstorms?

I agree that the 70" of snow was particularly remarkable for him...it's happened in Westchester a bunch of times in the last 60 years...even 80" has been met or exceeded three times here since records began in 1947, and that's measuring downtown at a lower elevation and in a more developed area than where I live. We did have a remarkable snowpack that lasted from 12/26-2/17 or so, with some patches of snow remaining in the woods until the rainstorm in early March. This was definitely one of the whitest winters I remember. Even though it may not be totally just, one nevertheless is bound to remember how the winter ended, and there has to be a bit of a sour taste in my mouth when I had 55" of snow at the end of January and then ended short of 70". If we could have been hit by the overrunning event on 2/9 that crushed Arkansas and Oklahoma, or the recent Nor'easter, then this winter would have broken all the records we know of.

I'm not sure where you got the widespread heavy snow and thundersnow from. Other then some crazy runs back on Tuesday, this slowly started losing a little of the once epic appeal, but I don't recall those words being thrown around yesterday as if we were getting over a foot. The models trended away from closing off so that wasn't a surprise. What was a little up in the air was how and if this WCB arc of moisture would develop and move north. It eventually did, but everything was a little late in really coming together. They started to take the moisture and move east during the day yesterday.

I was referring to the runs on Tuesday when the storm looked to bomb into the 970s and close off near NYC. It's just disappointing to have an epic storm signaled by both the ECM and GFS, and then watch them slowly back away until they depict a pedestrian Nor'easter, and then have the event be even worse than that. This was one of those systems where you have the perfect set-up: classic PNA over Idaho, Hudson Bay block, decent antecedent airmass....and then it turns into mostly an advisory type event for just a small portion of the Northeast. The coverage of the system was really poor as well, went from something that could affect BWI-BGM-BOS to a storm that basically hit ORH and a bit of Maine/NH.

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