ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Critical thicknesses....too warm on the nam pretty far nw. I think there is a focus here on the 0c line at 850.... There is some warm layers in there almost to nh for a short time 850mb is the warmest layer on the soundings here during the crucial times...between 09z and 12z. Cuts it close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 My rather inept model interpretation found gfs 6z/12z confusing. The 12z run added about 0.2" qpf to AUG & RUM, while the 12z clown map dropped snowfall by 2-3" for those locations. ???? No p-type issues there on either run. And made Lincoln to HUL the jackpot. I think they are based on 10:1 ratios, This realistically prob will avg 8-9:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Filthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Lots of snapped trees and power outages W of 495 if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 This one ain't going to be pretty up here... 3-6" looks good. I see ALB put up a lot of advisories, changed from warnings. Seems like a prudent move. I was surprised BTV kept the warnings up... this is an advisory event for the northern half of Vermont. No way over 7" in 12 hours or 9"+ in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 CT values become really dicey this time of year. But wouldn't we look at critical thicknesses that produce snow in February and adjust so that they have to be even colder in April? At 12z fri the nam 1000-700 is into se nh and arcs down into nw ct. How's that going to be all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 That map tells me we are losing power...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I think its pretty clear now, orh up through interior southern nh and up into maine are the jackpots, the berks went from an absolute crushing to a few inches, incredible changes in such a short period of time. I dont see anyone in ct getting more than an inch, maybe nw hills but qpf is low there, ne hills look to torch./ I was going to chase this in the Poconos, but now they only look to get .25" QPF. Western sections such as Albany NY, Berkshires, NNJ, NW CT are all looking to get screwed by this storm, what an incredible change in modeling from 2 days ago. We've gone from a low developing in the Mid-Atlantic to closing off near the Cape, great. I find the models often do this where they rush the development of the mid-level features to create an intense Nor'easter and then back off. It looks like your idea of "too many shortwaves in the kitchen" will prove to be right, Joe, despite the earlier consensus on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I hate winter...what a kick in the balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 850mb is the warmest layer on the soundings here during the crucial times...between 09z and 12z. Cuts it close. Got it...looks like I wasn't paying attention/ being lazy. Some of the graphics are being distorted by initially warmer lower layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 850mb is the warmest layer on the soundings here during the crucial times...between 09z and 12z. Cuts it close. The nam is damn close to crushing as with 12+. Too warm though as you said, but very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 But wouldn't we look at critical thicknesses that produce snow in February and adjust so that they have to be even colder in April? At 12z fri the nam 1000-700 is into se nh and arcs down into nw ct. How's that going to be all snow? no each situation really has to be treated independently as each season kind of dictates different things. the thickness value is determined by the temperature of the column in question...so you could have a thickness value that technically falls above what we deem to be "the critical value" but the entire column is still cold enough to support snow...it's just borderline for about 10000 feet - so you get a warm value. in the mid-winter months...you could be -15C at 700 mb but way too warm at the surface and have the same CT value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 no each situation really has to be treated independently as each season kind of dictates different things. the thickness value is determined by the temperature of the column in question...so you could have a thickness value that technically falls above what we deem to be "the critical value" but the entire column is still cold enough to support snow...it's just borderline for about 10000 feet - so you get a warm value. in the mid-winter months...you could be -15C at 700 mb but way too warm at the surface and have the same CT value. The one CT I think makes a lot of sense to use in a situation like this is the 850-700mb layer. I'd want that to be a touch colder than normal given the time of year. You're right about the CTs that involve the boundary layer because they really can be skewed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I was going to chase this in the Poconos, but now they only look to get .25" QPF. Western sections such as Albany NY, Berkshires, NNJ, NW CT are all looking to get screwed by this storm, what an incredible change in modeling from 2 days ago. We've gone from a low developing in the Mid-Atlantic to closing off near the Cape, great. I find the models often do this where they rush the development of the mid-level features to create an intense Nor'easter and then back off. It looks like your idea of "too many shortwaves in the kitchen" will prove to be right, Joe, despite the earlier consensus on guidance. I trademarked that phrase in regards to this system and got ripped over it We shall see. Let's hope it can bomb fast enough. It may just yet pull down cold air while maxing qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Got it...looks like I wasn't paying attention/ being lazy. Some of the graphics are being distorted by initially warmer lower layers You have to go by soundings this time of year. It's cold above and below 850-800. NAM is shoving a warm tongue west, but it seems aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 You have to go by soundings this time of year. It's cold above and below 850-800. NAM is shoving a warm tongue west, but it seems aggressive. I think that warm tongue out this way is partially due to just crappy omega. Not enough vertical motion through the column to cool things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 That map tells me we are losing power...... Looks like Charlie is getting the idea now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 You have to go by soundings this time of year. It's cold above and below 850-800. NAM is shoving a warm tongue west, but it seems aggressive. Trying to look at the model and learn here...verbatim what do you think ORH area east to BOS gets for snowfall this run verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 My, my... 24" atop Agamenticus, 18" for Eric and Jeff. MBY is just outside the 1.25" line which would mean 10-14", but if this winter holds the trend for Route 2, I'll get 0.8" qpf and 7" snow. (Which would still be my biggest snowfall in the 12 Aprils IMBY that exclude 2007.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Trying to look at the model and learn here...verbatim what do you think ORH area east to BOS gets for snowfall this run verbatim? Its almost all snow at the airport on this run...they may flirt with a mix between 09z and 12z...but its probably the type of thing where if the precip was falling at a good intensity, then it would be snow. Might be the type of situation where Auburn gets 3" of slop while Holden gets 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 My, my... 24" atop Agamenticus, 18" for Eric and Jeff. MBY is just outside the 1.25" line which would mean 10-14", but if this winter holds the trend for Route 2, I'll get 0.8" qpf and 7" snow. (Which would still be my biggest snowfall in the 12 Aprils IMBY that exclude 2007.) That would be pretty close to an April '97 redux IMBY. It's 95% likely to be overdone as usual, but that is just an extreme snowstorm for CNE if it were to come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Its almost all snow at the airport on this run...they may flirt with a mix between 09z and 12z...but its probably the type of thing where if the precip was falling at a good intensity, then it would be snow. Might be the type of situation where Auburn gets 3" of slop while Holden gets 10". That's kind of what I figured with what I was looking at, thanks Will. Bad sf rates and possibly a mix. Some nice 5:1 ratios incoming to my backyard. Still hoping the timings good enough to cancel school even if we only get 3-5"...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I think they are based on 10:1 ratios, This realistically prob will avg 8-9:1 That's logical; it was the opposing shifts that were puzzling. If it was merely ratios, then gfs must've had a 14:1 guess at 6z and 8:1 at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The one CT I think makes a lot of sense to use in a situation like this is the 850-700mb layer. I'd want that to be a touch colder than normal given the time of year. You're right about the CTs that involve the boundary layer because they really can be skewed. yeah they are tricky in the shoulder seasons. sometimes it seems we can get into a pattern when you can really use them as a guide but for my area they just are such a crapshoot that i typically don't look at them much. over eastern and central areas...the 700 temps got as high as like -2 or -3C for a time too so i'm sure even the 850-700 values are "mild". snowing on the outer cape apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm still in the GGEM / NOGAPS / JMA camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Looks like Charlie is getting the idea now. AWT, If the Nam verified, He is going to have to adjust again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 a little off topic but i was going down the mass pike and got to the highest point just after blandford and it was snowing and still alot of snow in the woods around there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 My mother was just driving back from Boston and called me to tell me its snowing steadily near the 140 and 290 intersection in Shrewsbury. That's about 700-750 feet in elevation. Precip is east of here so its doing nothing IMBY at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 My, my... 24" atop Agamenticus, 18" for Eric and Jeff. MBY is just outside the 1.25" line which would mean 10-14", but if this winter holds the trend for Route 2, I'll get 0.8" qpf and 7" snow. (Which would still be my biggest snowfall in the 12 Aprils IMBY that exclude 2007.) Usually the Nam is overdone on qpf, But, It actually increasd from 6z and 12z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Usually the Nam is overdone on qpf, But, It actually increasd from 6z and 12z.... So long as we can keep power until after the Sox game, I'm rooting heavily for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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