MaineJayhawk Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The scene on Saturday all across New England, particularly near Mt Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 That's cold, bro. Pure evil. Of course, he doesn't care if it snows on his sand spit or not, so it's all good. Haha there's a whole list of posters that before this storm came up, have been saying that snow in their front yards does them absolutely no good this time of year...keep it in ski country and let SNE enjoy spring, etc. Now all the sudden everyone is finding ways for feet of snow to fall in their yards. Funny how that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Wow at the 12z GFS lookin good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The scene on Saturday all across New England, particularly near Mt Tolland. What ... 2" of snow over a rusted out neglected public play-ground facilitiy where crack dealers hang around and crime is only temporarly held in check because the weather is a minor inconvenience??? J/K Btw, the 12z GGEM has a more compact system that pretty much whiffs SE. Just FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Has someone texted Kev to tell him the 12z GFS is over BUF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 UK would probably be a big fail for most of SNE outside of God's Country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS 12z ensembles are way east of the BM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS 12z ensembles are way east of the BM... Yeah they continue to be farther east. In fact, they went east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Kevs not here so I should take the reigns and spread the warnings. Clean out and fill your bath tubs with water. Make sure your chimneys are clean. If you don't have a chimney please build one or consider buying a three megawatt generator. Buy plenty of canned goods particularly beefarino which can be used in a pinch to feed your horses. Secure your basketball hoops by anchoring them to your foot. In cases like this I run a string from my front door to the nearest 7-11 in case I need supplies. Buy at least three forms of backup communication. 2 way radios, a sat phone and some type of signaling device like a flare gun. Fill your gas tank and consider filling your back seat and trunk with sand in case you get stuck. Hire a team of laborers to shovel your roof as the snow falls. If this is not possible you may want to cut holes in your roof to reduce the accumulation of snow. This is a life threatening situation. Nice looking solutions. Let's hope post full typhoon tip sample nothing changes tonight. As my own observations, the jconsor paper and other papers have previously noted the 72 hr barrier tends to be a big one for accuracy with sparse data with the next coming 36-42. Let's make it through the first one tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yeah they continue to be farther east. In fact, they went east. Flag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 UK would probably be a big fail for most of SNE outside of God's Country Uk is terrible. It's almost always way nw or way se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yeah they continue to be farther east. In fact, they went east. But at this time frame we say F you to the ensembles and hug the op for all it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Flag? I'll wait and see what the other globals do. I didn't expect the east tick, on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Uk is terrible. It's almost always way nw or way se. I know. East coast cyclogenesis is not it's thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 But at this time frame we say F you to the ensembles and hug the op for all it's worth. Not sure if we're quite at that time yet...... 34.7/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What ... 2" of snow over a rusted out neglected public play-ground facilitiy where crack dealers hang around and crime is only temporarly held in check because the weather is a minor inconvenience??? The Rev will understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Who called for a big winter? I'm calling for a mega event Friday. April Fools 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Flag? I'm not invested in this at all and wouldn't be until inside of 24h. I give up on the models. That said looking at the 12z so far we have the atrocious gfs with a perfect hit, the slightly less terrible Uk way west again, the ggem a miss, the nam mostly a miss and the gfs ensembles east. IMO very iffy situation. The nam got RIPPED here prior to the last event about being se and it turned out to be pretty good. If the euro goes se huge flag IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'll wait and see what the other globals do. I didn't expect the east tick, on the ensembles. Little bit surprised as well, But the op did go East some to, Not sure if thats a good thing out this far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm not invested in this at all and wouldn't be until inside of 24h. I give up on the models. That said looking at the 12z so far we have the atrocious gfs with a perfect hit, the slightly less terrible Uk way west again, the ggem a miss, the nam mostly a miss and the gfs ensembles east. IMO very iffy situation. The nam got RIPPED here prior to the last event about being se and it turned out to be pretty good. If the euro goes se huge flag IMO Agree.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Little bit surprised as well, But the op did go East some to, Not sure if thats a good thing out this far.. Said it yesterday models are often too fast to crumble the nao too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Congrats Scott - 10,000 posts. I can only imagine how many keystrokes that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Oh man, what I wouldn't give to see the next panel or two... hopefully that track would continue northeast to BOS and PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 So... Dildos or Weenies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It looks weird on the ensembles. In comparing the 500 height progs, this trough is actually sharper and would argue for a low somewhat west of the 00z run, yet it's east on the 12z run. If I had to guess, they might be a little too far east, but we are still in that shaky period where models shift around. Canadian is back nw of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Uk is terrible. It's almost always way nw or way se. Didn't you just say the GFS was terrible? Now its the Ukmet? Or are they all terrible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Only because it's the GFS am I not terribly excited. If the euro is same as 00z..it's balls smashed against wall time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 There are three GEFS members that make the third s/w dominant, and thus #2 is kicked eastward (somewhat like the NAM). So that will certainly skew the mean. Looking at the spread, at hr78 there are two maxes: one in the central MS river valley, and the other off the NC coast. At first glance it might look like it's associated with the phase of the longwave but actually it's with the amplitude of s/w3 and s/w2 within the l/w. The more energy focused in #2 the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 There are three GEFS members that make the third s/w dominant, and thus #2 is kicked eastward (somewhat like the NAM). So that will certainly skew the mean. Looking at the spread, at hr78 there are two maxes: one in the central MS river valley, and the other off the NC coast. At first glance it might look like it's associated with the phase of the longwave but actually it's with the amplitude of s/w3 and s/w2 within the l/w. The more energy focused in #2 the better. I actually thought it looked better at 500 so a few members might be skewing it. I was just a little surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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