Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It looks weird on the ensembles. In comparing the 500 height progs, this trough is actually sharper and would argue for a low somewhat west of the 00z run, yet it's east on the 12z run. If I had to guess, they might be a little too far east, but we are still in that shaky period where models shift around. Canadian is back nw of 00z. im confuzzled, i thought somebody said it was east, thanks scooter. I dont envy you guys with this one! gfs is a monster hit here, client this morning asked about a possible snowstorm thur night, media must be starting to pick up on the possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 too many shortwaves is always a red flag hopefully you guys can get lucky this time though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Said it yesterday models are often too fast to crumble the nao too fast I agree with this whole-heartedly. Many folks even last night were talking about how they were worried about a cutter instead of this going out-to-sea because the NAO is going to break down. But "the NAO is going to break down" is based off model guidance and models tend to rush that. Also, given that the past week the confluence has been nothing short of amazingly strong, I think there's definitely a much better chance of this going out-to-sea than it tracking west... though sometimes I think that's just a defense mechanism some of us put up as they are more saying they'd rather it go out to sea and miss everyone, than watch folks in NY state get a cement bomb. That NAO just isn't going to crumble over the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 im confuzzled, i thought somebody said it was east, thanks scooter. I dont envy you guys with this one! gfs is a monster hit here, client this morning asked about a possible snowstorm thur night, media must be starting to pick up on the possibility The GFS ensembles went a little east of 00z and 06z. The Canadian came back nw of 00z. The 12z Canadian is stuck at hr 72, but probably would be nice for SNE in terms of QPF. Luckily I don't have to start thinking of it seriously until tomorrow..so I can just sit and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Look at the 700mb low track on the GFS. That's just a crushing, crushing storm even for coastal CT. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The GFS ensembles went a little east of 00z and 06z. The Canadian came back nw of 00z. The 12z Canadian is stuck at hr 72, but probably would be nice for SNE in terms of QPF. Luckily I don't have to start thinking of it seriously until tomorrow..so I can just sit and wait. I'm as serious as cancer..when i say rhythm is a dancer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I agree with this whole-heartedly. Many folks even last night were talking about how they were worried about a cutter instead of this going out-to-sea because the NAO is going to break down. But "the NAO is going to break down" is based off model guidance and models tend to rush that. Also, given that the past week the confluence has been nothing short of amazingly strong, I think there's definitely a much better chance of this going out-to-sea than it tracking west... though sometimes I think that's just a defense mechanism some of us put up as they are more saying they'd rather it go out to sea and miss everyone, than watch folks in NY state get a cement bomb. That NAO just isn't going to crumble over the next 48 hours. Anything can happen. I put the Uk and gfs on par with the nogaps of east coast cred. Nogaps is always way se those too lately are often nw. Probably a compromise between the nam/gfs is the best guess right now. That too will move in the coming days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I agree with this whole-heartedly. Many folks even last night were talking about how they were worried about a cutter instead of this going out-to-sea because the NAO is going to break down. But "the NAO is going to break down" is based off model guidance and models tend to rush that. Also, given that the past week the confluence has been nothing short of amazingly strong, I think there's definitely a much better chance of this going out-to-sea than it tracking west... though sometimes I think that's just a defense mechanism some of us put up as they are more saying they'd rather it go out to sea and miss everyone, than watch folks in NY state get a cement bomb. That NAO just isn't going to crumble over the next 48 hours. I don't see the NAO as the issue. In fact, it's on it's way up big time. Just look at how it looks at H5. The problem here is related to which s/w does what, and how intense is it. I don't see a confluence issue. There is weak ridging over ern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Agreement except for the WRF. I may even see some snow, almost exactly a year ago we hit 90!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Agreement except for the WRF. I may even see some snow, almost exactly a year ago we hit 90!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm as serious as cancer..when i say rhythm is a dancer You drove around in your Datsun blasting that, didn't you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You drove around in your Datsun blasting that, didn't you. I've got the power. I will attack and you don't want that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Good point by DT on facebook... David Tolleris 12zGFS like the last few runs is crap. Really crap...IMO . Sure there is going to be a BIG coastal Low-- been saying that on the web site and on FB since 3/23. From what I see the 12z GFS is still absurd ....this looks like ...a EASTERN new England storm to me... the upstream" Kicker" over MN and MB at 60 hrs is clearly there and that short wave SHOULD be kicking the s/w over the se states further east but the GFS ignores it and closes off the 500 mb low waaaaay too sooon. I just dont see how the GFS solution makes any sense . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This storm makes the winter an A+ for interior SNE. Hands down no questions asks if it happens as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Good point by DT on facebook... David Tolleris 12zGFS like the last few runs is crap. Really crap...IMO . Sure there is going to be a BIG coastal Low-- been saying that on the web site and on FB since 3/23. From what I see the 12z GFS is still absurd ....this looks like ...a EASTERN new England storm to me... the upstream" Kicker" over MN and MB at 60 hrs is clearly there and that short wave SHOULD be kicking the s/w over the se states further east but the GFS ignores it and closes off the 500 mb low waaaaay too sooon. I just dont see how the GFS solution makes any sense . I also have concerns about the 3rd (kicker) become a more dominant player as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I've got the power. I will attack and you don't want that Are you the lyrical Jesse James? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Good point by DT on facebook... David Tolleris 12zGFS like the last few runs is crap. Really crap...IMO . Sure there is going to be a BIG coastal Low-- been saying that on the web site and on FB since 3/23. From what I see the 12z GFS is still absurd ....this looks like ...a EASTERN new England storm to me... the upstream" Kicker" over MN and MB at 60 hrs is clearly there and that short wave SHOULD be kicking the s/w over the se states further east but the GFS ignores it and closes off the 500 mb low waaaaay too sooon. I just dont see how the GFS solution makes any sense . We commented on the kicker yesterday, which will likely keep it from stalling. Just not sure if it shoves it really far to the east. I looked at the individual members on the ensembles. They look better as compared to 06z which had some flat waves for sure. As comparing to 00z, some members went nw, some se...but the ensembles lost a few of those really amped up members near NJ, so that might be part of the reason it went east since it didn't have those nutty members. There are still many that have a decent hit. A few are biggies. Canadian is a crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I've got the power. I will attack and you don't want that It's gettin'...it's gettin'.....it's gettin' kind of hectic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Good point by DT on facebook... David Tolleris 12zGFS like the last few runs is crap. Really crap...IMO . Sure there is going to be a BIG coastal Low-- been saying that on the web site and on FB since 3/23. From what I see the 12z GFS is still absurd ....this looks like ...a EASTERN new England storm to me... the upstream" Kicker" over MN and MB at 60 hrs is clearly there and that short wave SHOULD be kicking the s/w over the se states further east but the GFS ignores it and closes off the 500 mb low waaaaay too sooon. I just dont see how the GFS solution makes any sense . He's an idiot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This storm makes the winter an A+ for interior SNE. Hands down no questions asks if it happens as currently modeled. Yeah, we should probably let the flakes fly before we start handing out report cards and hanging out naked in the snowbanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 He's an idiot Why - because he implies limited Kevin involvement. ahahahhahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 taking a look at the ensembles and the ukie and the gem.....you guys are in great shape.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Why - because he implies limited Kevin involvement. ahahahhahaha For a plethora of reasons. You should know..he's handed your azz to you on numerous occasions on the boards over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm at a McDonalds wi-fi in Ocala, Fl.....haven't seen anything for a day The GFS certainly looks nice for the main populations centers from interior MA to SNE. Is this the consensus or are other models more out to sea or more coastal huggers? He's an idiot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 King Has initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS has the real meat of the storm happening from 12z-18z Friday across most of SNE. Not the ideal time to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 With the shorter wavelengths this time of year, having the "kicker" might be a good thing--that might be what's preventing this storm from going inland. With longer wavelengths, that kicker could send it OTS...but we could definitely compensate for the "kicker" with the shorter wavelengths, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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