Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Monday's storm continues to resemble yesterday more and more. POS vortmax moving under sne. If that vortmax north of Toronto were weaker, this thing probably would be an ice to snow event for a bunch of the interior. That seems to be keeping this low on a further north track. Would we go snow rain snow again with 30's for highs verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Figured you'd be out sledding today. 3-5 tonight (maybe an extra inch kicker). Whatcha got? Had cleaning up to do after yesterday, I think i am going to dig the sled out of the trailer and head out for a ride soon here, Looks like .25" still for you and just south of me, Think 3-5" for you maybe 2-3" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Would we go snow rain snow again with 30's for highs verbatim? Verbatim it torches to the pike. It's similar to 00z for temps for your area, but I think the point to take away here is that it seems like it could be something where a chunk of the interior could have icing and then change to an icy cold rain...especially up towards GC and ORH county. It was def colder for NNE. We can't treat every low that is progged to go west as something that will always come back se...lol. However, this one also has some signs like that last low, that it may be more of a colder solution at the surface for the interior. Not really a lock for sne just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Looks like more Lt snow/showers on thurs here with a cold front swinging thru with tha vort moving thru northern quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Verbatim it torches to the pike. It's similar to 00z for temps for your area, but I think the point to take away here is that it seems like it could be something where a chunk of the interior could have icing and then change to an icy cold rain...especially up towards GC and ORH county. It was def colder for NNE. We can't treat every low that is progged to go west as something that will always come back se...lol. However, this one also has some signs like that last low, that it may be more of a colder solution at the surface for the interior. Not really a lock for sne just yet. This had consensus as a lakes cutter just a couple days ago - amazing how far se it's already come. EPO ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 3 things 1) I would like to see Will's thoughts on potential icing for Monday - res. expert 2) the Sun does amazing things this time of the year. Was able to clear large chunks of the ice/snow off my driveway down to the bare asphalt. Black surfaces ftw 3) I swear I saw a few flakes when I was out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I know this is OT but does the Euro have anything close to the mega front the GFS has around D9-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 With all the deep snowpack it seems these things want to take the track along the southern periphery of it. I really think there' s something to that Still think we have room to trend this to a cold 30's rain again for most. I rode that train last time and posted yeterday I think that's the way to go again. We could always hope the NAM is right though that idea seems a little crazy..though it is nice it's the NAM doing it and not the GFS. Let's remember too.. the Euro got colder each run even up until 00z the night the storm started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 This had consensus as a lakes cutter just a couple days ago - amazing how far se it's already come. EPO ftw. Well unfortunately for you and I, it only means a colder rain..lol. -PNA and +NAO FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 With all the deep snowpack it seems these things want to take the track along the southern periphery of it. I really think there' s something to that Still think we have room to trend this to a cold 30's rain again for most. I rode that train last time and posted yeterday I think that's the way to go again. We cold always hope the NAM is right though that idea seems a little crazy..though it is nice it's the NAM doing it and not the GFS. Let's remember too.. the Euro got colder each run even up until 00z the night the storm started Are they scared? Seriously, maybe it is related to something John posted the other day wrt snowpack influencing modeling (or rather the Euro not picking up surface conditions) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I see JB is touting the March 1956 analog now. Needless to say that was epic in ENY ...and probably SNE also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 With all the deep snowpack it seems these things want to take the track along the southern periphery of it. I really think there' s something to that Still think we have room to trend this to a cold 30's rain again for most. I rode that train last time and posted yeterday I think that's the way to go again. We cold always hope the NAM is right though that idea seems a little crazy..though it is nice it's the NAM doing it and not the GFS. Let's remember too.. the Euro got colder each run even up until 00z the night the storm started I think that plays a role when forcing is weak, but we have to be careful not to overplay that. Sometimes that's given a lot more respect than it should. Heights did come in lower over the northeast and up through NB..maybe due to the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I see JB is touting the March 1956 analog now. Needless to say that was epic in ENY ...and probably SNE also. You see that on Twitter? I follow him on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I see JB is touting the March 1956 analog now. Needless to say that was epic in ENY ...and probably SNE also. Absolutely, but I'm so sure about that analog. March '67 showed up which was a great March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 I see JB is touting the March 1956 analog now. Needless to say that was epic in ENY ...and probably SNE also. Where is he posting that? Facebook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I think that plays a role when forcing is weak, but we have to be careful not to overplay that. Sometimes that's given a lot more respect than it should. Heights did come in lower over the northeast and up through NB..maybe due to the EPO. One thing I noticed is we seem to have more CAD this time than we did last time..That high is either stronger or is moving away more to the north than east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 One thing I noticed is we seem to have more CAD this time than we did last time..That high is either stronger or is moving away more to the north than east. That low tomorrow, probably plays a role in enhancing cad as it pulls away. I keep thinking about what could be, if we had just a little blocking. Just imagine another 70-80 miles se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 That low tomorrow, probably plays a role in enhancing cad as it pulls away. I keep thinking about what could be, if we had just a little blocking. Just imagine another 70-80 miles se. Well that's basically the NAM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Yeah twitter..... I'm not a member, but it still let's me read his posts it seems. You see that on Twitter? I follow him on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Yeah twitter..... I'm not a member, but it still let's me read his posts it seems. Here it is BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi http://bit.ly/ePGlJm )Troughs over Japan, Europe spell doom for early lakes, northest spring like last year( start looking at Mar 1956 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 We'll have to ask Jerry to fill us in on those years. Absolutely, but I'm so sure about that analog. March '67 showed up which was a great March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Looks like maybe an inch or two in MMK where I'm headed. My measurement when I get home is going to be after hours of compaction. Guessing 4.5'' falls if measured correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Final call: BOS: 3.3" ORH: 3.5" GAY: 4.2" TOL: 1.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Final call: BOS: 3.3" ORH: 3.5" GAY: 4.2" TOL: 1.7" Better than the flurries and sun you gave me last nite..still think you might be too low..but hopefully everyone does well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Bette than the flurries and sun you gave me last nite..still think you might be too low..but hopefully everyone does well Well I didn't say all you would get are flurries and sun, lol. I said you might be flurries and sun while Ray is still ripping SN for hours. Which is still true. It will shut off much quicker to the SW vs NE MA where it could hold on for hours with the E flow. You might get 2 or 3"...but it definitely looks better the further NE you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Well I didn't say all you would get are flurries and sun, lol. I said you might be flurries and sun while Ray is still ripping SN for hours. Which is still true. It will shut off much quicker to the SW vs NE MA where it could hold on for hours with the E flow. You might get 2 or 3"...but it definitely looks better the further NE you go. The other thing is it's impossible for Ray to get anything except .5 or exactly on the inch amts. He rounds up. An example is last nite he posted he got 1.2...yet in his sig he put it down for 1.5 So you have to give him either 4.0 or 4.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Final call: BOS: 3.3" ORH: 3.5" GAY: 4.2" TOL: 1.7" Nice, I like it. I was thinking 3 to 3.5" here or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Steve--thanks for the text updates. Heading to the wedding momentarily. Any quick updates on Monday re: ice? I got word on the NAM/GFS. What are the other models showing? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The other thing is it's impossible for Ray to get anything except .5 or exactly on the inch amts. He rounds up. An example is last nite he posted he got 1.2...yet in his sig he put it down for 1.5 So you have to give him either 4.0 or 4.5 LMAO, Kevs getting antsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The other thing is it's impossible for Ray to get anything except .5 or exactly on the inch amts. He rounds up. An example is last nite he posted he got 1.2...yet in his sig he put it down for 1.5 So you have to give him either 4.0 or 4.5 lol - I'll let ray post for himself but he got 0.5" of slush before the change-over then 1.0" in the back end stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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