Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 How much precip did the Euro show for Sunday's event? 06z and 00z GFS looked good last night. it was .16 at PVD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 i disagree with those that dont think we wont get a tow big snowstorms in march and its not that hard . I would be surprise if we have over 15 inches in one storm in march. ecwmf is showing low on march 5 in the the se usa or near the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 i disagree with those that dont think we wont get a tow big snowstorms in march and its not that hard . I would be surprise if we have over 15 inches in one storm in march. ecwmf is showing low on march 5 in the the se usa or near the east coast. Bring your tow truck for the big snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 gfs with two nice runs for ct on sunday, locking in 3-6 statewide lollis to 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 gfs with two nice runs for ct on sunday, locking in 3-6 statewide lollis to 8. I'm skeptical of that....maybe 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 gfs with two nice runs for ct on sunday, locking in 3-6 statewide lollis to 8. Nice fluff too. Great soundings. That would offer a good several inches at least, verbatim for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm skeptical of that....maybe 1-2 Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 At this point I've given up on a big March and am just hoping for some nickel and dimers. If I can get 12.8 more inches I make 100 for the year. so that's my focus Not good man, you have succumbed to the Debbies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 First grass patches since NYD torch showing up today in south facing lawns. Still have 12-16" IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 First grass patches since NYD torch showing up today in south facing lawns. Still have 12-16" IMBY. Congrats....I should lose most of mine, tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 It's amazing how models have been waaaaaaaay too aggressive in bringing in the cold to the east. I've been looking back at models from 4 days ago...I did this the other day too...and man models like the GFS ensembles are just night and day. Pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Man, I'm @ a cyberwake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Man, I'm @ a cyberwake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It's amazing how models have been waaaaaaaay too aggressive in bringing in the cold to the east. I've been looking back at models from 4 days ago...I did this the other day too...and man models like the GFS ensembles are just night and day. Pretty remarkable. Not only that, it seems the GFS time and time again overmodels cold shots and makes them colder than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It's amazing how models have been waaaaaaaay too aggressive in bringing in the cold to the east. I've been looking back at models from 4 days ago...I did this the other day too...and man models like the GFS ensembles are just night and day. Pretty remarkable. The extremity of the -PNA has definitely hurt. We probably would have been much colder if we could get the NAO even a bit negative, but it has not cooperated. We can handle a -PNA a lot of the time, but not an extreme one with no other help. So we're seeing a lot of these systems turn into cutters. The -EPO alone isn't enough to overcome them. We can see it trying...like with tomorrow's system, but just not quite enough. Some of it has to do with smaller nuances in the flow too and not just the larger scale pattern....but the larger scale pattern allows for us to be at the mercy of those nuances rather than forcing it to a colder solution regardless of nuances. We'll see if the orientation can right itself a bit as we head into the first half of March. Canada is extremely cold...it would be nice to tone down the -PNA a tad to allow us to filter more of that down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The only "cryn' for mommas" is coming from my snowpack, this winter's legacy and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The extremity of the -PNA has definitely hurt. We probably would have been much colder if we could get the NAO even a bit negative, but it has not cooperated. We can handle a -PNA a lot of the time, but not an extreme one with no other help. So we're seeing a lot of these systems turn into cutters. The -EPO alone isn't enough to overcome them. We can see it trying...like with tomorrow's system, but just not quite enough. Some of it has to do with smaller nuances in the flow too and not just the larger scale pattern....but the larger scale pattern allows for us to be at the mercy of those nuances rather than forcing it to a colder solution regardless of nuances. We'll see if the orientation can right itself a bit as we head into the first half of March. Canada is extremely cold...it would be nice to tone down the -PNA a tad to allow us to filter more of that down here. If not, we're stuck in the late 1980's hell in which we currently reside; buyers of the cold Canada beware... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 The extremity of the -PNA has definitely hurt. We probably would have been much colder if we could get the NAO even a bit negative, but it has not cooperated. We can handle a -PNA a lot of the time, but not an extreme one with no other help. So we're seeing a lot of these systems turn into cutters. The -EPO alone isn't enough to overcome them. We can see it trying...like with tomorrow's system, but just not quite enough. Some of it has to do with smaller nuances in the flow too and not just the larger scale pattern....but the larger scale pattern allows for us to be at the mercy of those nuances rather than forcing it to a colder solution regardless of nuances. We'll see if the orientation can right itself a bit as we head into the first half of March. Canada is extremely cold...it would be nice to tone down the -PNA a tad to allow us to filter more of that down here. Exactly, and that is the frustrating part. As you said before, we've produced with similar patterns, but for the time being we are about 50-100 miles into the screw zone. Lets just hope the models are right with the ridging into the southwest. Models have been too aggressive retrograding that west as well. However, there are maybe some signs that it may relax..as you noted. Right now, I wouldn't feel comfortable with it..given how the pattern is so stubborn to a strong -PNA. Hoepfully the second week of March produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Exactly, and that is the frustrating part. As you said before, we've produced with similar patterns, but for the time being we are about 50-100 miles into the screw zone. Lets just hope the models are right with the ridging into the southwest. Models have been too aggressive retrograding that west as well. However, there are maybe some signs that it may relax..as you noted. Right now, I wouldn't feel comfortable with it..given how the pattern is so stubborn to a strong -PNA. Hoepfully the second week of March produces. i wish i could take this winter out back and shoot it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Exactly, and that is the frustrating part. As you said before, we've produced with similar patterns, but for the time being we are about 50-100 miles into the screw zone. Lets just hope the models are right with the ridging into the southwest. Models have been too aggressive retrograding that west as well. However, there are maybe some signs that it may relax..as you noted. Right now, I wouldn't feel comfortable with it..given how the pattern is so stubborn to a strong -PNA. Hoepfully the second week of March produces. I think the trend is clear. Models will tease us but we're not going to get a favorable pattern. We will have some type of shot between the 6th and 10th and then it's back to the SE Ridge and game over for most of us in SNE. Like Kev said nickel and dime time, JMHO, and maybe we get lucky on a bigger system but we're almost into March and we're still talking about "10 days from now".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like 12z Euro came pretty far east with the monday storm from 0Z tracks it thru W NY thru CNH and CME.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Basically the pattern began to flip to a more classic La Nina a few weeks ago and that persists into early March. Now if we are going to have an early Spring comeback (also happens in La Ninas) it is out past March 7th IMO.... Maybe March 10-31 can be fun for us far enough north to still cash in. I think the trend is clear. Models will tease us but we're not going to get a favorable pattern. We will have some type of shot between the 6th and 10th and then it's back to the SE Ridge and game over for most of us in SNE. Like Kev said nickel and dime time, JMHO, and maybe we get lucky on a bigger system but we're almost into March and we're still talking about "10 days from now".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Basically the pattern began to flip to a more classic La Nina a few weeks ago and that persists into early March. Now if we are going to have an early Spring comeback (also happens in La Ninas) it is out past March 7th IMO.... Maybe March 10-31 can be fun for us far enough north to still cash in. By about 3/15 a lot of southern sne sees dramatically lower chances of snow. That's why I think we need to make it happen the 7th thru 10th. Either way it's been a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 so nam and gfs agree on ct jackpot for sunday, king says north of pike, wonder who wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Man the Euro from 168-240 is an all out torch, gfs much different. march= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Man the Euro from 168-240 is an all out torch, gfs much different. march= if there isn't going to be snow, then I'm rooting for the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I measured 18 in my yard on avg late yesterday afternoon. Couple spots have over 20. Figure I'll lose a good 6+ tomorrow esp if the south winds rip which they probably will..but hopefully it's for a fairly short period..then we flash freeze and snow at the end. Staffordville still with 21 lol The cutter next week looks worse..so will probably lose much of the rest Yeah, 20" still on this side of town, I just hope we don't get flooded after these two big rain events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Well it still seems like the second week (after maybe March 5th or 6th) holds some promise. We still have a se ridge, but the PNA relaxes a bit and possibly very weak -nao ridging. Being so far out, it could still go to crap..but for once...the overnight models cooled a bit during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Ideas for Monday? Any way it is anything but rain? BOX has me at rain and freezing rain with some snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Well it still seems like the second week (after maybe March 5th or 6th) holds some promise. We still have a se ridge, but the PNA relaxes a bit and possibly very weak -nao ridging. Being so far out, it could still go to crap..but for once...the overnight models cooled a bit during this time. Big positive direction in the long range...around 3/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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