MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Reading the AFD they mention the possibility of a band of 0.25" thick ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It gon' snow. BTV breaking out the Pink colored counties for 6-12"... visibility near zero in 1-2"/hr snows during the day tomorrow with gusty NW winds. Sign me up. Last night's model runs hold serve... game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Reading the AFD they mention the possibility of a band of 0.25" thick ice. I'm not sure I buy that either. The profile seems more supportive of sleet with the warmest layer being 800 mb, and a pretty cool ride down to the surface... Plus, it's late Feb and the surface isn't that cold. But again, I'm not an expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 We'll see. I'm not overly concerned about mixing (at least here). Models have, if anything, trended slightly cooler. I did notice improvement overnight after I chugged a bottle of sleeping pills upon seeing the SREFs last night. I am totally toeing the line ... just like 10 miles to the good on that graphic. Could be one of those deals where PWM is getting poured on, 15 miles inland is ice and my house is ripping heavy snow. Happened just like that about five years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Wow, congrats Eric, Dendrite, Dryslot etc. I haven't looked too hard, but that sharp of a line is certainly possible. I just saw the 00z EC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I just saw the 00z EC... Details? I know nothing of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Details? I know nothing of it. I know it was over an inch here and colder than the Americans... I imagine it's quite groovy all over. Though I too want details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I know it was over an inch here and colder than the Americans... I imagine it's quite groovy all over. Though I too want details. That's a nice tease! You guys inland/north are looking golden. I'll be chewing my nails today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Details? I know nothing of it. 1"+ QPF everywhere south of MPV-BML-MLT...possibly mostly snow here although I can't see more than every 6 hours. The 850 0C looks similar to the 6z NAM. I still worry about a warm layer above 850 though, but hopefully any changeover is after most of the heavy precip falls...then we just get snow grains or ZL. That 10" from GYX may actually end up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Reading the AFD they mention the possibility of a band of 0.25" thick ice. What makes a band of .25" ice thick versus .25" of ice that's not thick?? lol I find the amount of rain on the models in the next week--with a couple inches of snow thrown in-- a wretched disaster. Maybe I should say it will make my snowpack an impenetrable glacier. EDIT: Just saw that BOX has me forcasted for 3-5" tonight/tomorrow. Better than hoped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 1"+ QPF everywhere south of MPV-BML-MLT...possibly mostly snow here although I can't see more than every 6 hours. The 850 0C looks similar to the 6z NAM. I still worry about a warm layer above 850 though, but hopefully any changeover is after most of the heavy precip falls...then we just get snow grains or ZL. That 10" from GYX may actually end up verifying. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 EC ensembles are similar to the op. Looks like the 12hr period between 12-00z tomorrow drops around 1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 wow are the 3z SREFs ugly...rain on some members up to BTV. When they have locked onto a warm scenario 24hr out they've done very well. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 wow are the 3z SREFs ugly...rain on some members up to BTV. When they have locked onto a warm scenario 24hr out they've done very well. We'll see. Noted. RGEM at 0z wasn't "pretty" either... and the SUNY was not either... Not exactly the dream team, but a reason imho to keep the lower edge of the range at 6 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I had been wondering when I'd be able to start burning again (since all the branches/trees are covered in snow). I'm wondering if next weekend could be the winner. Could we possible elminate the bulk of the pack between now and then? Seems temps tomorrow will retard some of the disaster, but Monday............ Meanwhile, guess I'm the warmest spot around. 15.9/-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Going forward...as discussed ad nauseum, the next 10 days blow but there is the opportunity to pick up a few inches Sunday. However, there appears a glimmer of hope in the far long range for a flip back to some fun for the finale.. D10 is mild...... D15 the cold is pressing if you will...and it is apparent (to me) that the shorter wavelengths are what is keeping a significant cold dump. Keep that in mind as I believe we have a shot at a well below normal period 3/10-20. Incidentally....the Euro shows the potential changes on D10 and I'd like to hear from those with access what the longer range shows...below is ensemble mean next to op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Well both the euro and GFS have a nice overrunning event Sunday, So far, week 2 in March looks ok. I still think something near ern mass for the low track, so maybe not a 55 rain event for Kevin, but it's close. Yeah I think maybe 43-45 here for max temps..it looks like it wants to track south of me but not my much...warm enough to do some decent snowpack damage though. I'll come out with maybe 8-10 left. Sunday looks like a nice 3-5 inch event as we gear up for the next cutter. That'll put me up over 90. Also another clipper looks like it's coming next Wed with another couple inches. Nickel and dimers are great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think the real time will actually look like this on Friday and Monday across SNE. This next couple of days will be h*ll if one were a . Below 42 North looks like the "frosty erradicator". Maybe around the Ides of March we'll get a "kitchen sink" storm with snow/sleet mixed with turd balls as the Canada geese make their return north. After that warm and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah I think maybe 43-45 here for max temps..it looks like it wants to track south of me bu not my much...warm enough to do some decent snowpack damamge though. I'll come out with maybe 8-10 left. Sunday looks like a nice 3-5 inch event as we gear up for the next cutter. That'll put me up over 90. Also another clipper looks like it's coming next Wed with another couple inches. Nickel and dimers are great That's how we get to historic totals...let's hope it happens. I'm flying to PIT on Wed...early flight in and dinner time flight back...same day. If I'm delayed the whole trip can get kibosched... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Nice to see the Euro continue it's SE trend last nite..NAM too And now of couurse the GFS is the farthest north. I hope this storm has finally driven home the point about the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 BOS is -0.9 MTD for temps...Can they finish below? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 We could have two more cutters to deal with before the second week in March imo. At that point, the cold slowly seeps eastward. Unlike the signs that were pointing to a sh*tty first week of March, there are some signs that point to a more wintry second week. However, I have to caution that because not everything is lined up by any means, and the se ridge is there. It still could go into the crapper so don't lock that week up, but at least it looks like it could be something. Models also try to build a transient east based -NAO thanks to next week's cutter. Maybe that allows the second potential cutter to be a colder solution, but that's a stretch right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Incidentally Matt in the Back Bay has mentioned there's not much snow left. Just a few miles away I still have a pretty good snowpack...and in shady neighborhoods it is amazingly robust and durable. Even on Beacon St between Coolidge Corner and Washington Square which was on my walking rout last night, we have a pretty deep hard azz glacier. The good news is the sun and last week's torch have cleared the sidewalks for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 BOS is -0.9 MTD for temps...Can they finish below? We'll be below today, above tomorrow, below Sat/Sun. I like our chances if we don't hit 60 Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Also looks like a quick flip to snow at the end Friday night. Maybe enough to drop an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 the euro and ukie just crushed other guidance on this event. the sref mean is basically the track the euro has had for 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 the euro and ukie just crushed other guidance on this event. the sref mean is basically the track the euro has had for 5 days I think the Euro had the crazy uncle do a series of timeouts to start behaving better than earlier in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Also looks like a quick flip to snow at the end Friday night. Maybe enough to drop an inch? Yeah I could see that, and not just for interior areas too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 the euro and ukie just crushed other guidance on this event. the sref mean is basically the track the euro has had for 5 days Crushed, destroyed, decimated...you name it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm starting a new thread for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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