Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 3.6" of snow and I get to 20" IMBY. With below normal temps in Dec and Jan (Feb too?) and 20" of snow, I call that a solid B/B+ winter. Speaking of Feb...what's the status of our monthly temps relative to normal to date? Did this week get rid of all the below normal anomaly from the first 2 weeks? If the forecast for next week pans out, I'd wager we end up fairly close to average on the month. I believe at least DCA is pretty decently above normal through yesterday, now. As for the first 2 weeks before this warm-up, it wasn't really all that below normal, actually, except for a couple of decent negative departures. At least for DCA, anyhow...but I think it's been similar at IAD/BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 and monday is also going to be well above normal which makes me think we'll be very hard pressed to get below normal. euro is pretty warm toward the end of next week still.. would think another day or two 60+ there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Actually, I think psuhoffman nailed that like 26 days in advance. You mean he's the first to say Bonds used steroids? Oh, wait, you mean that snowstorm! Yes, actually, he did call it pretty well in advance (not sure about "26 days", and I'm sure you're being a little tongue-in-cheek there, but I know what you're saying)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I believe at least DCA is pretty decently above normal through yesterday, now. As for the first 2 weeks before this warm-up, it wasn't really all that below normal, actually, except for a couple of decent negative departures. At least for DCA, anyhow...but I think it's been similar at IAD/BWI. it is still a pretty remarkable flip the last week. while we had not had any truly extreme cold air this winter prior it was consistently colder than average for much longer than most years. we were running near the head of the pack on general cold DJF days prior to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 fayetsville Arkansas got 25 inches from like .60 qpf 1) I call bull**** on this; and, even if it IS accurate, 2) KXNA = 1300' MSL, KDCA = 13' MSL What's possible at 1300' is not necessarily possible at 13'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 CoastalWx posting in the mid-Atlantic forum always brings good luck. Ha...don't always have that hope......lol. I just figured I'd let you guys know what it had, because I can see it every 3 hrs, except qpf. I hope you guys can pull something out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I am trying to find a past example of what's depicted by the models... can't remember any examples where we got accumulating snows behind an ENE-oriented front heading southward across the area that was so warm (60's) ahead of the front. In terms of sensible weather-- this is pretty close, but the front in that case was the typical NNE orientation that moved eastward, not southward, across the area: http://www.wundergro...tename=Virginia Two fronts that headed south across the area followed by heavy snow were 2/6-7/67 and of course PDII, but in both, it was much colder ahead of the front (cold enough to snow). Any other examples out there? Edited to add: 3/23-25/90 was a slow motion example of this scenario, I guess. Highs in the 60's on 3/23, with slowly, but steadily dropping temps through the night until snow broke out the next morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 From LWX's afternoon disco MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW FROM HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEWENGLAND...DRAWING COLD AIR /AROUND -10C H85 TEMPS/ DOWN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. CONTINUED GULF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE RAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING. AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH...RAPID COLUMN COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY/END OF PRECIP MOVES SOUTH BY EARLY TUESDAY. WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURES...ANY SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD END UP BEING SLUSHY ON THE GROUND. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY PRECIP RATES. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO THIS MONDAY NIGHT SCENARIO OVER THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 From LWX's afternoon disco ghosts of jan 26 but yeah they're right.. the gfs has consistently been advertising convective banding as a good possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 it is still a pretty remarkable flip the last week. while we had not had any truly extreme cold air this winter prior it was consistently colder than average for much longer than most years. we were running near the head of the pack on general cold DJF days prior to this. Oh, I don't disagree, the + departures this week have been quite amazing compared to earlier this month and before that even. I was just talking strictly about the first part of Feb. by itself not being all that incredibly cold overall. But yes, overall this winter has been very consistently colder than normal until recently, especially Dec-Jan of course. In fact, I believe that time period was colder than last year. Almost assuredly, we'll have DJF as a total end up below normal, even with some large + departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 fayetsville Arkansas got 25 inches from like .60 qpf Others have already questioned this, I know...that liquid amount cannot be legitimate (or I'd be extremely surprised if it is!). Clearly can't be a from an actual core sample. It reminds me of Dec. 18-19 last year, DCA got 16" or so of snow from that event but only listed 0.50" QPF. No way. They later "updated" that, taking into account other reports and liquid equivalents in the area, to something that was a lot more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 nam looks like it's a step back (h5 north/warmer initially at 850) from 12z tho there is a slug of precip west still at 84. http://www.nco.ncep....am_ref_084m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z NAM seems pretty close to the other models in placement of the major features through the end of its run. 850 0C line is right over Baltimore running E/W (north of DC) at 6z on Tuesday. Fair bit of rain before that for DC and Wes-land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 nam looks like it's a step back from 12z tho there is a slug of precip west still at 84. http://www.nco.ncep....am_ref_084m.gif It still would have a changeover but after quite a bit of precip had already fallen. It's a strong front which helps but the 500h still doesn't look that impressive to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z NAM seems pretty close to the other models in placement of the major features through the end of its run. 850 0C line is right over Baltimore running E/W (north of DC) at 6z on Tuesday. Fair bit of rain before that for DC and Wes-land. The 850 at 78h on the 18Z NAM is noticeably warmer than 84h 12Z for the same time (00Z Monday evening). 500-mb vort also looks farther north. Yeah, it's the 18Z NAM out near the end of it's run, blah blah, and all that...but still, it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It still would have a changeover but after quite a bit of precip had already fallen. It's a strong front which helps but the 500h still doesn't look that impressive to me. yeah it doesnt but this is a nice 700 map http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_700_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Grain of salt, but I think it's a good FYI on the GGEM.... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Scroll to hour 92. Verbatim, DC Metro begins to transition around 3-4am with a few hours of moderate/heavy snow. Thinking Tuesday AM commute will be tricky, but by afternoon this thing will almost be forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 nam looks like it's a step back (h5 north/warmer initially at 850) from 12z tho there is a slug of precip west still at 84. http://www.nco.ncep....am_ref_084m.gif NAM at 84!!!!11!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 NAM at 84!!!!11!! true.. it's outside the ellinwood sweetspot of 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Does the NAM have a hurricane off the west coast at 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 true.. it's outside the ellinwood sweetspot of 72. On a serious note, there is the possibility of son of Jan 26 here. H7 map is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 On a serious note, there is the possibility of son of Jan 26 here. H7 map is nice. Would have to agree with you. Probably won't be as good in terms of accumulations but dynamically it should be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 3-6'' looks very possible at this point, will have some nice dynamics as many are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z looks to start as rain area wide and then change to snow for DC north at the height...shows more precip falling before changeover...it's faster also...looks less impressive at 500 with two pieces coming through one to our north and one to our south where as 12z had a single piece moving through...a little less qpf but still gives the area a "jackpot" .5-.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z is not too great, but 00z should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Meh...I played a round of golf today. It was beautiful out there. I would take one last shot of winter but I have no chance of getting anywhere close to normal for my snowfall this year. With temps in the 60's at start of the storm the snow wont amount to much on streets. I think 3-6 is a very bold call. More like 1-3 of slush on grassy areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 gfs sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Would have to agree with you Ian. Probably won't be as good in terms of accumulations but dynamically it should be awesome! Randy is now Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Randy is now Ian? He is confused just like the GFS is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Meh...I played a round of golf today. It was beautiful out there. I would take one last shot of winter but I have no chance of getting anywhere close to normal for my snowfall this year. With temps in the 60's at start of the storm the snow wont amount to much on streets. I think 3-6 is a very bold call. More like 1-3 of slush on grassy areas. Disagree...it all depends on how much we get after the changover...temps are going to go from the 40's when it starts to low 20's as it ends. It will all depend on the passage of the front. I would say if .2 or more fall's before the changover than we'll probably only end up with 1-3 but if we can get that changeover with .4 still left than 3-5" is not out of the question...GFS also showing some potential for hrs 168-192...all rain right now but cold air not that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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