ravensrule Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The back end turns to snow on the 00z Euro... ~1-3 inches just looking at 850s and precip. Also do not forget with most storms this winter the EURO has been a few degrees to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This is the day I move to Seattle. How epic is tracking this storm? Not to be a debbie downer but I'm still iffy on this one. GFS led the way with the last threat by suppressing it south. It seems to want to do that again. I do like that the Euro has it a bit warmer and north. It'll be cool to see the balance tipped. Just glad we at least will have cold air coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Well from the looks of the 12z GFS... on panel 90 and 96... it is back on board for a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Lol guess the 12z GFS is making me eat my words. I think I can speak for all of us from NOVA Northward in that we would take this verbatim. Book it. Now I'm worried about the Euro leading the way with a warmer solution. Can't say I'm not fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 12z GFS isn't to shabby. It stripes .5-.75 right thru md. Looks like a little rain to start changing to snow. Areas between the Mason Dixon and DC/Bmore look to make out the best. Also seems like NAM and GFS are speeding this system up a little which probably bodes well for us with more qpf falling in the early morning instead of mid-morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Lol guess the 12z GFS is making me eat my words. I think I can speak for all of us from NOVA Northward in that we would take this verbatim. Book it. Now I'm worried about the Euro leading the way with a warmer solution. Can't say I'm not fickle. The Euro has really been terrible recently. Take a blend. GFS right in the middle, GGEM suppressed, Euro north, nam not in range. Things are still looking good. I know you know this but sometimes it helps to be reminded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The Euro has really been terrible recently. Take a blend. GFS right in the middle, GGEM suppressed, Euro north, nam not in range. Things are still looking good. I know you know this but sometimes it helps to be reminded. Yeah you're right, of course they look great. Can't complain about a hit on the GFS and a hit with a blend of them all. Just got that post 96 hour pessimism in full throttle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm already on record for 3" at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 The front that goes through Monday night into very early Tuesday is just wicked...GFS has temps around 50F at 00Z Tuesday and by 12z temp is 15F!! Most of the precip (~75% for Balt and DC and closer to 100% for points northward) is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The Euro has really been terrible recently. Take a blend. GFS right in the middle, GGEM suppressed, Euro north, nam not in range. Things are still looking good. I know you know this but sometimes it helps to be reminded. The Euro has been fine. People get wrapped up in 'that time it was way wrong.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm already on record for 3" at DCA Well if you are saying at least 3", I guess I should pay more attention. Would be even better if Wes was on board.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm already on record for 3" at DCA Looks like at least the possibility of more chances down the road as well. It's always in the cards that we all bust low on seasonal total in your contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I started to jump on board the snow threat last night... pending that it holds (which I'm fairly sure it will) with tomorrow's model updates I'll issue a snowfall forecast tomorrow afternoon. I think I'm with you on this one...fully on board. Lot of TV forecasters were pretty skeptical, but not for the normal reasons. Seems more so because it was going to be warm today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_090m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_096m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 12z GFS isn't to shabby. It stripes .5-.75 right thru md. Looks like a little rain to start changing to snow. Areas between the Mason Dixon and DC/Bmore look to make out the best. Also seems like NAM and GFS are speeding this system up a little which probably bodes well for us with more qpf falling in the early morning instead of mid-morning. Yeah, not too bad. Though when I looked at the precip amounts and temperatures, it didn't appear quite so optimistic to me. Looked to me like a good slug of moisture through 06Z Monday night, but that appears to be all rain, with the 850 and surface still just above freezing right through that time? Then about another quarter inch or so through 12Z that almost certainly will be all snow. Now, I cannot tell how fast temperatures will actually crash Monday evening/night, maybe the QPF that falls through 06Z will at least in part be snow? Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Let's hope the models change their tune between now and Monday... nobody wants snow any more....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Looks like at least the possibility of more chances down the road as well. It's always in the cards that we all bust low on seasonal total in your contest. yeah it's possible. i mostly chose tuesday because i know it will snow tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The front that goes through Monday night into very early Tuesday is just wicked...GFS has temps around 50F at 00Z Tuesday and by 12z temp is 15F!! Most of the precip (~75% for Balt and DC and closer to 100% for points northward) is snow. Uber front. Kinda worried about the GFS flipping, but it does seem to be settling in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Ian... yes, the h5 energy passes south of us in south central VA right now http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_096l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 At 90... the 850 0 line is just to the N and W of DC... probably over IAD... and south of BWI. At 96 850s crash like hell... -9c 850s at KEZF... -11c at KIAD/KDCA... -12c at KBWI Omegas are nice -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_700_090l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The front that goes through Monday night into very early Tuesday is just wicked...GFS has temps around 50F at 00Z Tuesday and by 12z temp is 15F!! Most of the precip (~75% for Balt and DC and closer to 100% for points northward) is snow. A very impressive drop in temperatures, that's for certain! One could make the pun and say a "precipitous" drop? One thing which I mentioned before, and maybe you have other data at your finger tips than what one can see on the regular GFS model plots. That is, you say it looks like most of the precip (75%) in Balt-DC is snow. Not in any way arguing here, just trying to gather how that's the case...from what I saw it still looked too warm (850, surface) through 06Z, and by that time a fair amount of precip has already fallen. After 06Z another quarter inch or so falls that would clearly be snow with rapidly falling temperatures. But I don't see much or any of the stuff that falls through 06Z Monday night being of the frozen variety...unless, like I said, there's something I'm not seeing here. Which is why I'm asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Uber front. Kinda worried about the GFS flipping, but it does seem to be settling in Most of the precipitation on this morning GFS is rain isn't it" We get maybe .25 after it changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 A very impressive drop in temperatures, that's for certain! One could make the pun and say a "precipitous" drop? One thing which I mentioned before, and maybe you have other data at your finger tips than what one can see on the regular GFS model plots. That is, you say it looks like most of the precip (75%) in Balt-DC is snow. Not in any way arguing here, just trying to gather how that's the case...from what I saw it still looked too warm (850, surface) through 06Z, and by that time a fair amount of precip has already fallen. After 06Z another quarter inch or so falls that would clearly be snow with rapidly falling temperatures. But I don't see much or any of the stuff that falls through 06Z Monday night being of the frozen variety...unless, like I said, there's something I'm not seeing here. Which is why I'm asking. Changeover is ~6z probably, yes. Earlier in the north, later towards the south. You're right about the precip type...I was reading the wrong chart earlier. Probably closer to 60/40 or 50/50 for DC and more like 75/25 for the MD border counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Changeover is ~6z probably, yes. Earlier in the north, later towards the south. You're right about the precip type...I was reading the wrong chart earlier. Probably closer to 60/40 or 50/50 for DC and more like 75/25 for the MD border counties. OK, that makes sense. Still, even 0.25" or so of precip that's all snow is pretty decent. And given that it will be right around rush hour, you know what that means, especially as temperatures will have been dropping rapidly. Of course, if we can somehow sneak the colder air in a little faster, it could be a fair bit more significant (kind of how the GFS was depicting yesterday, especially 18Z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 12Z GFS Bufkit for MRB has 0.20" of rain, and then after 06Z Tuesday, 0.32" snow with 4.0" accumulation. Temp is 60 when the rain begins at 4 p.m. Monday; 21 degrees by 4 a.m. Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GGEM anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GGEM looks like a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GGEM looks like a hit From that map it is amazing you can tell because i hate those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 OK, that makes sense. Still, even 0.25" or so of precip that's all snow is pretty decent. And given that it will be right around rush hour, you know what that means, especially as temperatures will have been dropping rapidly. Of course, if we can somehow sneak the colder air in a little faster, it could be a fair bit more significant (kind of how the GFS was depicting yesterday, especially 18Z). Based on the profiles, it looks like it would turn from rain, to perhaps a brief period of sleet and then quickly to very powdery snow. Would need to see BUFKIT details for snow crystal growth, etc..., but very cold profile for the last few hours of snow. So I'd say probably better than 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 From that map it is amazing you can tell because i hate those maps. The dashed line in the precip map is the 0c 850 line I am pretty sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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